Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Technology Investor. Harry Newton
AM EDT, Thursday, August 27, 2009: I get emails: "Harry, you're
nuts. The economy is not bouncing back. Here are 400 web sites that prove
conclusively the economy is in the toilet. Moreover, our beloved government will
only pay off the trillions it owes by driving the dollar into the toilet."
you're buying into the happy talk coming out of Washington and people beholden
to the sell side. The stock market is being propped up daily by some combination
of Fed/Treasury/Big Banks. I'm a long-time independent trader, and the manipulation
is obvious on any streaming chart. Or ask Rick Santelli on the Chicago BOT.)
Real estate, residential and commercial, is going to get worse. Unemployment
will continue to climb well into next year. And the survival of the US as
a going enterprise is in serious jeopardy from our TRILLIONS of national debt
and vulnerability of the dollar. You need to set aside your WSJ and start
checking some "reality" blogs. For starters:
the guru of Dow Theory Newsletters writes:
price to be paid for Bernanke's all-out battle to thwart the bear market.
And now it's being told. Yesterday the White House itself admitted that the
budget deficit over the next 10 years would be $2 trillion above their original
outrageous estimate of $7 trillion dollars.
As I said all
along, it would have been better to have allowed the bear market to run its
course to conclusion. That would have been extremely painful, but the US would
have recovered. However, deficits in the trillions could ultimately "break"
this nation. I can't imagine how Bernanke-Obama plan to handle the coming
mind-blowing deficits, plus the interest on those deficits.
will be on the reserve status of the dollar, the level of the dollar compared
to other international currencies, interest rates, and the standard of living
of all of us living in the new "banana republic," the United States
of "bankrupt" America.
When you take
all this in, you can begin to see how this bear market could end with stocks
selling below known values and people despising the stock market and capitalism.
In view of the
above, what is the stock market telling us now? The dollar is still holding
above support, Treasuries continue to hold their own, and gold is acting sluggishly.
What are we missing? Nothing, if this is simply a stock market correction
within a bear market. The stock market will do whatever it has to -- to confuse
and trap the greatest number of people. Note -- Sentiment has changed radically
from what it was six months ago. The prevailing sentiment today seems to be
optimism, hope, and the feeling that the Fed has "everything under control,"
as Bernanke keeps telling us.
story. Stock prices have risen strongly since March, confounding all the "realists"
who have stayed on the sidelines and watched their non-thinking, optimistic
friends get rich.
Now there is two
types of "tallk."
1. The bears will
be forced to pile into the market because all their investors are getting pissed
about the profits they missed. This will drive stock prices even higher.
2. The market
will turn down dramatically because one day people will wake up and say, "These
new, higher stock prices can't support the reality of a dreky economy."
When this will happen nobody knows. For now, optimism is winning. We've had
seven consecutive days of rises in the Dow.
side will "win" this one is what makes horse races, and is also irrelevant.
You don't pick markets. Ynou pick stocks. And you pick them based on their individual
prospects. And you follow our 15% Stock Loss Rule.
I like STEC because
I like its technology and prospects, though now it's getting "pricey"
-- but it hasn't fallen 15% so I'm still hanging in. Ditto for EWA, EWZ and
've been vacation
so I would have had more picks.
instructive to peruse the past 13 years in stockmarket. Here are three ways:
First, the leaders:
Second, the broad market:
What do you learn
form these charts? First, trends continue. Second, go with the flow. Third,
get out when your 15% stop loss kicks in. Fourth, stay awake at the wheel. Fifth,
don't fantasize. Sixth, go back to the first point and read all the points over
don't normally recomend new technology before I test it. But
this new solid state hard drive has been receiving extraordinary reviews all
over the Internet. If you rely on your laptop as much as I do to run your life,
you really cannot not have one.
calling this Corsair 256 gig, though in reality it's the Samsung drive Samsung
is selling OEM to laptop manufacturers. I bought mine yesterday from NewEgg.
It cost nearly $700 -- about 10 times what I can buy a normal 2.5 inch hard
drive for. But, after reading all the reviews, I couldn't resist. Here's a sample
SSD (solid state drive) in the world
HLN from Windermere, FL
I just got this yesterday after a long weekend wait and let me tell you this
thing rocks. And it rocks fast :). I am going to give you a review on a perspective
of real world usages and not on benchmark with all the numbers, not yet anyways.
I bought this for my MacBook Pro unibody and it is the best upgrade I have
ever done. The speed is just simply mind boggling. I was shocked on how fast
everything is. I am not talking about user wishful thinking, bias opinion
of the speed gain, I am talking about screaming fast, jaw dropping speed.
To give you some ideas on how fast this thing boots up, with the original
stock drive, I got out a stop watch and timed it (not very scientific here
but it'll do) and it took 1 minutes and 46 secs to cold boot the MacBook Pro
into the desktop. With this new SSD, it took 22 seconds. Applications loading
is extremely fast as well. I mean, as soon as you hit the icon, the app is
already fully loaded. I have a 8000 songs iTunes library plus about 40+ movies
and 10 TV shows and iTunes loaded with lighting speed. It used to take at
least a full minute to fully load iTunes, now it takes, literally 1 to 2 seconds
(yes you read correct 1 to 2 secs to fully load iTunes). I also have Photo
collections with several thousands pics and it took, are you ready? It took
2.2 seconds to load the entire library. How cool is that? Safari and FireFox
are both stunning in loading speed with about 8 tabs of web pages. My machine
was running fairly cool with the old drive but when watching movies, the machine
gets warm or sometimes hot to touch. With this SSD, I watched a full length
2 hour movie and the bottom of the MB Pro is steel cold. The fan never kicked
on the entire movie. In fact I have not heard the fan since yesterday. To
be fair, the MB Pro is so efficient that I never had any problem with heat
or hear the fan noise but with the SSD drive, it is just dead quite. Very
strange to use a completely noiseless and steel cold to the touch notebook.
About the drive. I did extensive research and found that this is one of the
very best right now, watch out Intel (I think Intel still is the King). Before
you get turned off my the name Corsair, it is really a Samsung drive with
Samsung RAM chips and controller. Samsung has its own version of 256GB SSD
but they only sell to OEM and not regular folks like you and me. A tip: Installation
of the drive into MB Pro is very simple. Remove one screw that holds the drive
and remove the 4 screws on the old drive (need special screw driver for these
4 screws). There is a video from OWC computing that shows exactly how to do
it. Painless upgrade: I first put the SSD drive into an external USB enclosure.
Downloaded SuperDuper, a free program to clone my old existing drive to the
new SSD. Installed the SSD into MB Pro and boot it up. The first time booting
up with SSD took a lot longer than what I stated earlier. I believe the OS
needs to do some configuration for it first. After another reboot, the speed
was astonishing. I know that this is not cheap and I hear you. But if you
want to joy of the greatest upgrade ever in the history of upgrading, this
drive is the drive to get. Also, DO NOT go cheap on SSD drives. You get what
you paid for. All SSDs are not created equal. Go do some research before buying
but if you want to listen to someone who already did the research, read anything
and everything on SSDs for years, then run, don't walk and buy this awesome
telephone system stinks: A customer calls you. He gets your voice
mail. He then hits zero and is told zero is not defined. In other words he can't
reach your operator to speak to another salesman. Annoyed, he calls your competitor.
Please check your phone system.
pay retail. On anything you buy, ask for "Your best price."
Don't accept less than a 30% discount. There's an old joke: Why did God invent
Christians? Answer: because someone has to pay retail.
Airport is a gigantic mess. Lines are ultra-long. Getting around
this huge airport is slow. Two solutions: go by wheelchair and/or first class.
Both get you shorter lines.
Mountain construction. You live and learn.
I'm visiting a construction sites in Beaver Creek, Colorado. I notice these
"mats" outside glass doors. They're plywood with a million three-inch
long screws sticking out.
Here's a close-up of the nasty screws.
"The bears are after food. They push in glass doors and often break them.
This is a $15,000 door. We protect it. The bears don't like stepping on my mats."
OK. I think that's
creative. I ask, what do the owners do after you and your mats have left?
Two bees met in a field. One said to the other, 'How are things going?'
'Really bad,' said the second bee. 'The weather has been cold, wet and damp,
and there aren't any flowers, so I can't make honey.
said the first bee, 'Just fly down five blocks and turn left. Keep going until
you see all the cars. There's a Bar Mitzvah going on and there are all kinds
of fresh flowers and fresh fruit.'
'Thanks for the
tip,' said the second bee, and flew away. A few hours later the two bees ran
into each other again.
The first bee
asked, 'How'd it go?'
the second bee. 'It was everything you said it would be. There was plenty of
fruit and, oh, such huge floral arrangements on every table.
'Uh, what's that
thing on your head?' asked the first bee.
'That's my yarmulke,'
said the second bee. 'I didn't want them to think I was a wasp.,
second worst puns.
+ The roundest knight at King Arthur's round table was Sir Cumference.
He acquired his size from too much pi.
+ I thought I
saw an eye doctor on an Alaskan island, but it turned out to be an optical Aleutian
+ No matter how
much you push the envelope, it'll still be stationery.
+ A dog gave birth
to puppies near the road and was cited for littering.
+ A grenade thrown
into a kitchen in France would result in Linoleum Blownapart.
+ A hole has been
found in the nudist camp wall. The police are looking into it.
+ I wondered why
the baseball kept getting bigger. Then it hit me.
+ When the cannibals
ate a missionary, they got a taste of religion.
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software
scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing
the Google ads on this site. Thus I cannot endorse, though some look interesting.
If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting
you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Michael's business school
tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click
here and here.