Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment, Technology Investor. Harry Newton
AM ET, Tuesday, December 8, 2009: I sold my
Apple yesterday, figuring it had its big runup and had peaked. I'd do the same
with Amazon if I owned it. I'm holding onto Google, which I believe still has
legs. It's the smartest tech company around. I'm still holding EWA (Australia)
and EWZ (Brazil). Gold has come back.
But it's still
above its 50-day moving average -- the blue line. I hope gold drops more. I'll
pick up more.
Russell of the Dow
Theory Letters writes:
GOLD -- Within
the next 12 months, the U.S. Treasury will have to deal with refinancing $2
trillion in short-term debt. And that's not counting any additional deficit
spending, which is estimated to be around $1.5 trillion. And remember, there
are the expenses of the enlarged war in Afghanistan.
Study the numbers carefully. Then ask yourself, how in the world the Treasury
can possibly borrow $3.5 trillion in only one year? That's an amount equal
to nearly 30% of our entire GDP. And we're the world's biggest economy. Where
will the money come from? And my answer is that the money will have to come
from the Fed by way of the "printing press."
The next question is -- how much longer will our creditors be willing to accept
"printing press money" from the US? I honestly don't know, but my
thought is that it's not going to be too much longer. This has led to rumors
of an official devaluation of the dollar. We owe a trillion dollars? Suddenly,
the dollar is devalued hugely and every old dollar suddenly becomes two dollars.
Could that happen? It could, but I don't know whether the Bank of Bernanke
(as James Grant calls it) could get away with it without chaos resulting.
... I've posted a P&F chart of gold. Each box is worth 10 points, and
only advances or declines (reversals) of three boxes are depicted. As of yesterday,
gold has corrected down to the 1150 box. A sell signal will be given if gold
hits the 1130 box.
My thinking is that nothing fundamental has changed in the gold picture. The
gold correction we are experiencing now is a result of gold rising for 21
out of the last 25 days or 84% of the sessions. Gold was severely overbought
and looked as though it was never going to halt its climb. As such is was
an easy profit trade (which no item ever is). The amateurs jumped in and now
they are learning, as gold corrects.
raised its earnings target because of increased demand for its international
services and its cost-cutting efforts. That means its business is improving,
but not necessarily the economy.
BIG concern my friends have is that Washington is, as usual, faking the
numbers. Unemployment is not 10%. It's really close to 20%, etc. Remember the
third quarter? Washington said, with much fanfare, GDP grew at a robust 3.5%.
Later they quietly dropped their number to 2.8%. That's a big downward
revision. Had the U.S. calculated its GDP the way Europe does, it would not
have been 2.8%, it would have been 0.7%.
was on BubbleVision this morning. She's the best, clearly the most knowledgeable
analyst around. She's not a bull. She worries about 2010. She worries about
the States and their horrible budgets. She worries about the huge contraction
of credit for businesses and for the consumers. Says Meredith, "To have
so many Americans kicked out the financial system is such a disaster... It's
never happened in our history."
broker has such a deal. He's offering me a
money market fund:
1. FDIC insured.
2. Pays 0.50% per year.
3. I can deposit and take out money whenever I want with no penalty.
And to think,
I'm happy about half of one per cent a year. Why joy!
batteries and printer toner. Yesterday I wrote I am totally cheap.
But buying non-branded cheap-junk batteries and toner have been BAD decisions.
From now on, I only buy brand-name stuff. Reader, Steve Littlejohn writes "try
I have been using them for a couple of years and have had great success (never
a bad cartridge) and the savings is huge....especially in the case of HP."
really happened to Tiger Woods? The absolute best interpretation
is from Wanda Sykes.
something nice for your wife. Take her to see
George Clooney's latest movie.
wife I know (including and especially mine) is in love with George Clooney.
"His suits are wonderful and he wears them so nicely," says mine.
The movie presents many opportunities to view Clooney and his suits.
To me, the movie's
most interesting aspect was its unabashed plugs for American Airlines, Hilton
Hotels, Hertz and Travelpro luggage.
From Travelpro's web site. Personally I prefer Eagle Creek luggage.
American is running
a promotion with the movie. Click on the image and win yourself a free "elite"
trip to Los Angeles.
another bad lawyer joke.
The Salvation Army realized that it had never received a donation
from the city's most successful lawyer. So a Salvation Army volunteer made an
appointment to see the lawyer in his lavish office.
opened the meeting by saying, "Our research shows that even though your
annual income is over two million dollars, you don't give a cent to charity.
Wouldn't you like to give something back to your community through the Salvation
The lawyer thought for a moment and said, "First, did your research also
show you that my mother is dying after a long, painful illness and has huge
medical bills that are far beyond her ability to pay?"
Embarrassed, the Salvation Army volunteer mumbled, "Uh... no, I didn't
"Secondly," says the lawyer, "did it show that my brother, a
disabled Veteran, is blind, confined to a wheelchair and is unable to support
his wife and six children?"
The stricken volunteer began to stammer an apology, but was cut off again.
"Thirdly," the lawyer said, "did your research also show you
that my sister's husband died in a dreadful car accident, leaving her penniless
with a mortgage and the burden of supporting three children, one of whom is
disabled and another who has learning disabilities requiring an array of private
Completely beaten, the humiliated Salvation Army volunteer said, "I'm
so sorry. I had no idea."
And then the lawyer said, "So, if I don't give any money to them, what
makes you think I'd give any to you?"
This column is about my personal search
for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have
to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter
and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available
for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second,
the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the
Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their
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