The theory is simple: The market is meant to reflect what will happen in the economy nine months from now — not what’s happening now.
Today… well it’s not overly ebullient. Today …
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Sales at U.S. retailers slumped in February for the third month in a row, a sign that Americans more likely pocketed the money they saved from a plunge in gasoline prices that took place from July through January. Most stores fared poorly in February, though particularly bad weather almost certainly contributed. Retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% last month after a 0.8% drop in January and a 0.9% decline in December. Sales fell even though gasoline stations posted their first increase since last May. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.3% increase in overall retail sales. Sales minus autos dipped 0.1%, but sales minus gasoline dropped an even steeper 0.8%, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The only retail segments to post gains were gas stations, grocery stores, Internet purveyors and stores that sell sporting goods, books and music.
The full story: Americans just aren’t doing a lot of shopping
From Seeking Alpha this morning,
South Korea joined twenty four countries across the globe by easing monetary policy in 2015. Taking advantage of low inflation, the BOK cut its base rate by 25 bps to a record low of 1.75%. South Korea also previously slashed its forecast for this year’s economic growth to 3.4% in January from 3.9%, but is widely expected to lower it again next month as China’s growth continues to slow and much of Europe flounders.
This morning Business Insider writes:
The stock market has gone up this far, this fast only twice since 1900
This month, the bull market celebrates its sixth anniversary with the S&P 500 up over 200% during that period.
Just how extraordinary is that run?
Societe Generale analyst Andrew Lapthorne illustrates it by charting the rolling six-year return in the S&P 500 since 1907.
“Such a strong six year run up in US equities has only been seen twice since 1900, i.e., back in 1929 and 1999, neither of which ended well,” Lapthorne wrote.
It’s anyone’s guess what happens next. But Lapthorne and his colleagues have slanted bearish.
I won’t make a bearish call. Now is probably not the time to sell everything. It may be the time to assess each stock we own, and its prospects and how much we own of it. Call it “re-balancing.”
For example, Canada is seeking to reduce the number of railcars carrying oil. They’re much more dangerous, compared with pipelines. That is one reason behind Berkshire’s recent weakness:
Never ever ever give your cell phone number out. How they got my number beats me. But look at this screen. Every single call is garbage.
AT 6:33 this morning, Institutional Investor magazine called, wanting me to renew my subscription…
My Top Twelve Tips for Safe New York City Biking.
These will not interest you if you’re not a biker. I am. I’ve been biking every day here for 45 years in New York City. Miraculously, I’m still alive. My 12 best tips on staying alive:
1. No one looks before they fling open their car door. Move ultra-slowly when passing cars, especially on the inside.
2. Most dangerous are out-of-town buses. They’ve never seen bicycles and they don’t look for them.
3. Expect out-of-state drivers to change lanes without looking, and without signaling.
4. Metal grates and manhole covers are the worst, especially in wet and snowy weather.
5. Most bike riders don’t have lights or reflective vests. Hence these riders can’t be seen at night. Watch out for them if you drive a car.
6. Helmets are actually a good idea. They do protect an important part of your body. It’s amazing how many bikers don’t wear them. My doctor friends are astounded at the number of head injuries caused by not wearing a helmet.
7. Talking on your cell phone and/or listening to music is not good idea when biking. It hurts your concentration. You’ll crash into something. Trust me.
8. Pedestrians are no longer aware of their outside world. They live in their own world of texting and phoning. They walk off curbs without looking where they’re going.
9. Bike lanes are dangerous. Pedestrians treat them as sidewalks. They don’t look. You need to be doubly wary in a bike lane. You probably should use them because you’ll get a ticket if you don’t. I kid you not. New York gives out tickets for not riding in bike lanes.
10. Folding bikes are the best. You can park them in closets, hand them to hotel bellmen, slide them under chairs at restaurants, etc. Because you have them with you all the time, your bike doesn’t get stolen and you don’t have to carry a heavy lock.
11. Get a GoPro or other video camera. Mount it on your bike or helmet. Record your every trip. One day someone will hit you, put you in hospital and you’ll need the evidence for their lawyer and their insurance company. A friend got $75,000 in medical bills because he had the evidence of his client’s wrong-doing on his video camera.
12. Other bike riders are now the biggest danger. They drive anywhere and everywhere. They overtake you with only inches to spare. I’ve crashed into more bicycles in recent years than I have crashed into pedestrians, cars or buses.
Bonus tip: Don’t bike the wrong way on a one-way street. You’ll get a ticket from the police and you could be taken off in handcuffs. Just like what happened to Alec Baldwin.
Indian Wells Tennis started yesterday. Get this free app for your iPhone from the Apple App Store. Search for BNP Paribas. They sponsor the tournament, which Larry Ellison of Oracle fame now owns. Serena is playing.
I’ll be at the tournament. Wave if you see me. It’s a beautiful venue and the weather is gorgeous.
Harry Newton whose new Coachella Valley dentist has discovered a bunch of “issues,” which he says are “fixable.” Which means I’ll be warming one of his many chairs for most of the day. I can not contain my enthusiasm. It’s probably a good idea to clean your teeth regularly, using perhaps sulfuric acid as a mouthwash. I’m guessing the sulfuric acid would destroy any incipient decay.
Yesterday my “big” accomplishments were changing the clock on Susan’s semi-new Mercedes to daylight savings time and buying some Lutron dimmers from Amazon, which our local electrician had forgotten to order. He is a seriously wonderful man, but seriously unreliable. Which is sad, for him and me.
My friend Kristin Zhivago tells me her field of technology marketing is booming. She writes, “The entire web infrastructure is switching from premises-based apps to Salesforce and/or other Cloud apps.” And that’s creating huge opportunities for everyone from digital marketers to Apple and Android developers. I bet some of them can even figure out my cell phone number… Yuch.
Harry…if you store Susan’s car for more than 3 weeks at at time, as we do, get a “floater” to connect to the battery. A floater will keep the battery level without over charging and the clock is guaranteed to still be on the minute when you return. Under $10.00 lasts for years.
http://www.batteryfloatchargers.com/how_float_charger_works
For $10 how can you go wrong? It is just a simple 12-15V power supply. The website does a remarkable job of making the uninformed think there is a lot more there. Perhaps there marketing guy could help some of your angel investments.
Harry,
Save yourself some time in the future by setting the clock in Susan’s Mercedes the right way.
If the car has the navigation system/GPS, go into the settings, select clock, choose your time zone and select it, and the GPS will set the time automatically and adjust whenever daylight saving changes.
The only time you will need to do this again is if battery in the car dies or is disconnected….Oh, also if our “genius” politicians decide to mess with daylight savings again. in that case Mercedes will update the software which you will have to get installed/updated at the dealership.
Re: the Business Insider article noting the stock market has only gone up this fast twice before “and neither ended well.” Harry, you still don’t get the fact that financial media today is not about helping us out, it’d about generating clicks and views. What the article omitted is that this run up was a reaction to the largest DECLINE in modern history. It’s been a recovery, not a topping of euphoria. I am NOT tremendously bullish from here; at some point we will get a 20 or 25% pullback. THen, guess what? The financial media will write “Stocks are reasonably priced.” But you have to stop treating media with respect. These people are low life shitholes bottom of the barrel scum.
Harry,
Retail is down because the (well compensated) talking heads don’t get it: things are NOT better for the masses which drive the 70% retail-based US economy. Just look at the continued bad numbers regarding average wage growth: it ain’t! Employment and Unemployment are becoming meaningless metrics. Yes, profits at companies have generally been strong, thanks to cut cut cut and technology improvements. But the disconnect continues to become greater as people refuse to look at what is changing in our underlying economy for the average joe.
It’s interesting how well Wall Street, wealthy investors, and Washington politicians have done these past 6 years, while the rest are left suffering through a terribly slow recovery from a gov’t caused recession. This an accident or the normal gov’t stupidity? Both I suggest.