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Suddenly, a scarier world

My portfolio lost one per cent yesterday. I’ve had worse days. It wasn’t pleasant.

I eye the screen. Should I buy or sell? Or do nothing?

Doing nothing is the worst. My whole life running businesses has been to do something, anything.  This is different, and hence awful.

I chose to do nothing, except sell WFM, whose prospects have changed and is still way overpriced.

No other selling. And no buying: One per cent down does not make a major “buying opportunity.”

A nut shot down the Malaysian plane — by accident (maybe). He thought it was a Ukrainian military plane. He used a Russian-supplied surface-to-air missile. I bet I could buy some if I wanted to. Remember that James Bond movie?

Israel invaded Gaza to root out Hamas’s rockets and close the tunnels that were letting Hamas pour its bad guys into Israel.

The Israelis reached out to moneyed American Jews for moral support and money for bomb shelters, and got lots of both. They have a “Solidarity Mission” of monied Americans going on July 27.

A retired American general got on BubbleVision to say that the “eviscerated” U.S. military should be rescued. Buy defense stocks?

Neither Ukraine nor Gaza will affect the earnings of most public American companies.

But all of it reflects how dangerous the world has suddenly become. A few of these surface to air missiles in the hands of nut cases and positioned around major world airports could do serious damage to world commerce, perhaps shooting down many planes.

A little “wait and see” seems to be the best investment strategy.

“Cheap” commercial real estate seem suddenly  to be more available. I’m seeing more interesting opportunities in syndication. I suspect large institutions — like banks and insurance companies —  are now more comfortable selling some of their drek, their poorly-performing properties. This is probably because the Fed has succeeded in re-capitalizing them and they now fell comfortable selling drek, which they’ve carried on the balance sheets at twice what it was worth.

Strengthening the banks (and “the world financial system”) has been a major Fed Reserve goal since the 2008 crash. You were told (and believed) the low interest rates were designed to boost the economy by encouraging the banks to lend you and I money so we could expand our businesses and hire more people. No way, cheap money was designed to let the banks borrow cheap and invest in anything (lots of treasuries) that paid a little yield. That yield margin made the banks rich, got their stocks (and bonuses) up and back. Remember, the Fed, Treasury and Goldman Sachs (and others) are revolving doors. Everyone works at all three in their careers. In their minds they’re the same company.

My friends in M&A tell me we should expect more mergers and acquisitions in coming months. I don’t like picking stocks based on someone buying them. But there’s a lot of obvious ones out there. I lucked out with DTV.

The high dividend yielders are holding up. I hold CIM, AGNC, NLY, STWD, HTGC and WSR. Yields range between 7.5% and 11.3% based on yesterday’s close.

Look what’s happening to interest rates. They’re falling. If they were rising, this chart would be rising. This is one month:

tbtonemonth

 27 Australians died on the missile-hit Malaysian plane. Most came from Western Australia, where my precious Susan was born. Among them Nick Norris and his three grandchildren:

NickNorris

Otis Maslin

OtisMaslin

Evie Maslin

EvieMaslin
and Mo Maslin.

MoMaslin

Several airline-savy  friends wondered why Malaysian Airlines sent its plane over a war zone. Bad decision. I’ve personally been on planes that avoided entire countries in the middle east.

The children’s parents were not on the plane.

JPMorgan Chase just put this out.

ProtectingAgainstIdentityTheft

It’s good. Here’s some of its advice. Some obvious, but some you never thought of:

CARRY ONLY WHAT YOU NEED

The less personal information you have with you, the better off you will be if your purse or wallet is stolen. For example, do not carry your Social Security or Medicare card with you, since they are rarely needed.

IMMEDIATELY REPORT LOST OR STOLEN CREDIT CARDS

Call each issuer and ask to have the stolen card accounts closed and new ones opened to replace them.

J.P. Morgan-and most other financial institutions-will block payments on checks reported lost or stolen. Review orders of new checks to make sure none have been stolen in transit. (Note: Thieves often steal checks from the middle of a checkbook, so review the entire book.) Also, review your statement for counterfeit checks, and be sure the checks that clear the bank were written by you.

DON’T PREPRINT PERSONAL DATA ON CHECKS

Your checks should only provide necessary information. Phone numbers, Social Security numbers and personal information beyond name and address should not be included. (Harry’s comment. I don’t think you need your address, either.)

GUARD PINS AND PASSWORDS

Do not write your personal identification numbers (PINs) on your ATM, debit or credit cards-or store PINs with your cards.  Do not create PINs or passwords using information that can be guessed easily (birthdays, addresses or children’s names).  Create strong passwords with a combination of numbers and upper- and lowercase letters. Avoid using the top five most popular passwords:

1 Password
2 123456
3 12345678
4 1234
5 qwerty

Set your laptop to require a password when it is turned on, especially when you are traveling.

BE ALERT TO TELEPHONE SCAMS

Be wary about providing personal information to telephone callers you do not know. Don’t respond if you don’t feel comfortable doing so. Fraudsters pose as research or financial firms.

FIND ANOTHER WAY TO PAY

Consider using online bill pay.

OPT FOR PAPERLESS STATEMENTS

Safely print your statements at home rather than having them mailed to you.

PROTECT FINANCIAL RECORDS AND CANCELED CHECKS

Keep financial documents and records in a safe place-away from anyone, such as workers, who may come into your home. Safeguard new or unused checks as well as ATM and credit card receipts. This information can be used by fraudsters to access your accounts.

SHRED MAIL YOU NO LONGER WANT

Consider a home paper shredder to dispose of all sensitive or financial documents, including invoices or unwanted money solicitations. Fraudsters can use these to assume your identity.

USE TRUSTED ATMS

Only use your ATM card in well-lit public places. Avoid any ATMs that look strange, tampered with or out of place

KEEP YOUR INFORMATION PRIVATE

Don’t give out financial information on the telephone, such as your checking account or credit card numbers, unless you initiate the call and know the person or organization to whom you are speaking. Be especially protective of your Social Security number and date of birth. Do not give personal information to anyone who calls you, even someone claiming to be from J.P. Morgan. Legitimate representatives of J.P. Morgan will never contact you by phone or email to request your PIN or password.

ERASE PERSONAL DATA BEFORE DISCARDING A COMPUTER

Completely remove all personal information from any computer or mobile device you plan to replace. Use a wipe utility program to overwrite the entire hard drive or check your owner’s manual, the service provider’s website, or the device manufacturer’s website for information on how to permanently delete information.

CONDUCT ONLINE TRANSACTIONS WITH CARE

Make sure the websites you visit to conduct financial transactions or purchase goods and services are secure and protect your data from Internet theft. Look for websites that use Secure Socket Layer (SSL) technology to encrypt your personal information. Such sites use https:// at the start of their web addresses (URLs).

Refrain from using a public computer for any purpose (this applies to hotel “business centers,” Internet cafes, etc.). Public computers may be infected with keystroke-logging malware, thereby capturing your username and password.  If at all possible, avoid using an Internet-based email account to conduct bank business. Refrain from storing financial information in email files or sending files via email.  Avoid using public wireless networks.

BE ALERT TO FRAUDULENT EMAIL

Avoid opening files, clicking on links or downloading programs sent by strangers. Opening these files may expose your system either to a computer virus or to spyware that captures your passwords and/or other information as you type.  If a company that claims to have an account with you sends an email asking for personal information, go to its site (avoid using any links in the email; connect directly from your browser), and contact the company through customer service. Or, call the customer service number listed on your account statement. Ask whether the company really sent a request.  Delete without opening email you receive from unknown senders.  Be suspicious of emails from a trusted friend asking for personal information; also beware of emails with typos or strange word/sentence construction.  Do not respond to threatening emails, such as one saying your account has been compromised. Instead, call the company directly to see if there is a problem with your account

For the full excellent JPMorgan fraud booklet, click here.

HarryNewton
Harry Newton who has a deal with Amtrak: If he’s late, they’ve left. If he’s early, they’re late. Last night he was on time. They left about a minute early. Go figure.

There are two reasons I play tennis. First, tennis gives me exercise. We all need it. Second, you “check out” with tennis. It takes our mind off day-to-day problems — the minutia that is our daily business life, like making money, paying the bills and dealing with uncertainty.

One certainty. It’s going to be a great weekend. We will make up yesterday’s losses, perhaps even a little today. Hug the kids. I mean really hug them. Get some exercise. And never, ever fly Malaysian Airlines.

151 Comments

  1. Bill says:

    Given those rather eye popping high yield stocks, and noting they do not appear in your list to the right, perhaps you could comment further on investing in REIT’s…

  2. VINCENTSFAX says:

    harry: have u read MY PROMISED LAND BY ARI SHAVIT?

    U MIGHT LIKE IT. IT IN PART RELATES 2 WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ISRAEL/GAZA NOW.

  3. Cliff says:

    I “check out” by reading your column.