I suspect Apple may be a screaming buy. It has dropped for three reasons:
1. iPhone sales in China will be weak because China’s economy is slowing and millions of Chinese have been hurt by the Shanghai stock market’s plummets.
2. Super intelligent hedgies saw the $132 ceiling and sold the stock short.
3. Super dumb hedgies are facing investor redemptions following their dumb decisions in commodities, which have fallen.
Here is Apple over the past year:
Three times it’s hit the $132 ceiling — my green line — and fallen strongly. It’s a no-brainer short sale.
Several times it’s fallen below its 200-day moving average — my red line. But it has come back.
You can make a case for China’s consumption dropping. Here’s a chart from Macquarie, an Australian operation:
So, it’s not boom times in the People’s Republic.
But that could actually mean a pickup in Apple sales. “Look how I’m not suffering. be envious.” Some luxury items sell more in bad times.
I still have 3,000 Apple. I’m tempted to buy a few more, especially if it falls further, which it’s doing.
The chart came from BusinessInsider this morning. You see the rest of Macquarie’s charts here.
The big BIG lesson:
Things change ultra-fast — much faster than they’ve ever. Because there are more hedgies playing the day-to-day game, price movements get exaggerated. Think Apple. But primarily think commodities. There are still people who think commodities will come back some time soon — viz. the gold bugs.
I was fiddling last night with some charts on commodities and their producers. The gold miners have done really awful. Look at them:
Now some erstwhile hot stocks from the oil patch:
This one is solar. The theory is when oil falls, no one wants to buy solar because the economics suddenly shifted.
Three lessons from all this:
+ Don’t fall in love with any stock — like Apple — and make it too big a part of your portfolio.
+ Buy and hold is really dead.
+ Long live Harry’s Inviolate Stop Loss Rule. It really works.
Lessons from Puerto Rico:
+ Don’t borrow to finance day-to-day spending.
+ Don’t trust the ratings agencies. They gave PR a great rating until it was far too late — yet my 34-year old guru — warned me off Puerto Rico eons ago. And I sold all my PR bonds. Thank you Max.
+ Be wary of mutual funds. A whole bunch or moronic mutual fund managers bought Puerto Rico bonds and still own them. Remember Harry’s Fill-Em-Up With Garbage Fund Strategy? That’s what happens when the fund has raised too much money. It’s run out of decent buys. It has internal rules about concentration on too few buys. Hence, it then buys garbage to fill the gap. This happens with real estate and venture funds.
For more on the PR bond mess, this piece is really good: Click here.
Nation Worried That Rest of World Might See Debate
CLEVELAND (The Borowitz Report)-As preparations get under way for the first Republican Presidential debate, on Thursday night, a new poll shows that Americans are deeply concerned that the rest of the world might see it. According to the poll, there is widespread fear that, if the debate were to be viewed in foreign countries, the cost to the United States’ prestige around the world would be incalculable.
On a more personal level, many expressed concern that any international broadcast of the debate would greatly diminish their desire to ever travel abroad or talk to foreigners.
In another measure of Americans’ discomfort with Thursday’s televised event, two of the TV programs they identified as being the biggest embarrassments to America, “Duck Dynasty” and “Jersey Shore,” still lagged far behind the debate.
Those surveyed strongly agreed that the U.S. government should block foreign transmission of the debate, or that Fox News should air an explanation of the contest beforehand, but they were at a loss as to what that explanation could possibly be. And, in a result that seemed to sum up Americans’ anxiety, a broad majority agreed with the statement “God, this is so embarrassing.”
Harry Newton who is totally confused by all the “research” on which suntan blocker really blocks. Anyone know of a decent one? I know they should contain zinc and titanium. But how much? IN my hot little hand, I have two from the same company: The Mineral Screen has 7.7% titanium dioxide. The Mineral Crème has 2%. The Mineral Screen has 3.8% zinc oxide. The Mineral Crème has 17%. How much should there be? I have a poor sensitive neck that burns easily and painfully.
Harry – I used to sunburn all the time. 30 minutes in the sun and I was a lobster. I cant tell you how many times my head has burned and peeled, even though I always wear a hat. After some internet research (mercola.com), I had my Vitamin D level tested, and it was ridiculously low. I had a 9 on a scale of 1 to 100. Vitamin D is really a hormone made by the body and isnt a true vitamin. I began taking 1000iu, then 2000iu, which helped raise the levels but still not high enough, so then later 5000iu of Vitamin D daily. As my D levels went up, I stopped burning and my cold/flu resistance really went up. My winter long sniffles/cough disappeared. I actually began to have the ability to get a small base tan, and my bald head no longer is super sensitive and peels. My ears dont burn like before and they never are covered. There is an epidemic of low vitamin D in the country- probably because we have indoor jobs and slather on sunscreen when we go out. High Vitamin D levels fight cancer, influenza, colds, sunburn, and much more.
Hi Harry,
Below are some very helpful links
http://www.webmd.com/beauty/sun/20140520/consumer-reports-sunscreens
http://time.com/3924609/sunscreen-spf-uva-uvb/
(explains why SPF30 is better than SPF50 or others)
Use a magic marker to divide the back of your neck into four quadrants. Number them 1 – 4. Apply a different sunscreen to each quadrant. Write down what went where. Play in the sun all day. The next morning take a selfie of the back of your neck. Determine the results. Record the results and report.
Bull Frog gel is the only sunscreen I use. I live in Florida, play tennis, light complexion and did have blond hair.
(Harry, do your friends understand satire?)
The only way satire can be grasped is to have sufficient intelligence and awareness.
Not being satirical, its the simple truth.
The idea that Republican debates would be viewed by the world an USA prestige would take a hit is a HUGE JOKE. Our prestige has suffered for years under Obama. The world watched as he broke promise after promise. They watched as he spoke of the Russian reset. They laughed as Putin played us in Syria. They laughed as Obama told Syria not to “cross the line TWICE and did NOTHING both times. The Snowden affair and the NSA spying and wire tapping of world leaders personal phones (Merkel). Then the stupidty of our secret service that allowed an intruder to hop over the White House fence and enter the White House thru an unlocked door. Really – and a debate is going to hurt our stature in the world????
Honestly wondering, hasn’t AAPL dropped more than 12% from it’s high, thus invoking Harry’s Inviolate Stop-Loss Rule?
Andy Borowitz is a huge leftist who wrote his ridiculous article for the New Yorker magazine. It’s truly funny watching you idiotic socialists react to the republican candidates. You don’t even understand that the world has been laughing at the U.S. Since the day Obama was elected. If I were you Harry I would be concerned about all the articles talking about the demise of NYC, which is directly attributable to morons like you who vote for morons like Mayor Mike. NYC is clearly in free fall. Best of luck with that!
Borowitz is a comedian….It’s funny. Loosen up. Mayor mike did a brilliant job with the city.
Harry, tell me how mayor Bill is doing?
Lighten up! Harry is also a comedian, I’m pretty sure.
Yes except in matters of politics where he takes great joy in throwing rocks at any Republican even though his Messiah criminal prez has been the biggest failure in the entire history of the country. Nixon would be laughing now to compare his insignificant crimes to those of the Criminal in Chief.
One more item of interest – L.L. Bean sells a great sunscreen hat with flap that will cover you neck. Between the hat, zinc oxide and 6 month visits to the derm doctor, no issues.
what’s the zinc oxide stuff ou use?
I use Thinksport
http://www.ewg.org/2015sunscreen/about-the-sunscreens/617142/Thinksport_Sunscreen%2C_SPF_50%2B/
Harry,
Here on Clearwater Beach, FL, I use Thinksport (‘Safer Products For Healthier Athletes’), SPF 50+
Active Ingredient: 20% Zinc Oxide. I used mineral-based formula not benzone stuff found in most.
Harry
All suntan blockers rated 15 block 98% of the UV. Even 30s, 45s etc., only marginally add about 1 more percent blockage at best. Don’t worry about it. Just get one of any of the 15s; pick a nice scent 😉