In Search of the Perfect Investment

SGOL and BSV typically rise when the markets are awful, like today.

Bill Ackman was on CNBC pushing changes happening at Valeant — new CEO, new business strategies, etc. I bought a little yesterday. It’s up today. It’s an interesting spec. Ackman thinks it’s a bargain at these prices — 87% below its peak of last summer. Figure a two- to three year hold from here.

The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its key rate by 25 basis points to a new low of 1.75%. The bank’s governor said:

The cuts follow information showing inflationary pressures are lower than expected. (That’s a global phenomenon.)

The global economy is continuing to grow, though at a slightly lower pace than earlier expected, with forecasts having been revised down a little further recently. While several advanced economies have recorded improved conditions over the past year, conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies. China’s growth rate moderated further in the first part of the year, though recent actions by Chinese policymakers are supporting the near-term outlook.

Commodity prices have firmed noticeably from recent lows, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years. Australia’s terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years.

Sentiment in financial markets has improved, after a period of heightened volatility early in the year. However, uncertainty about the global economic outlook and policy settings among the major jurisdictions continues.

Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain very low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.

In Australia, the available information suggests that the economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom. GDP growth picked up over 2015, particularly in the second half of the year, and the labour market improved. Indications are that growth is continuing in 2016, though probably at a more moderate pace. Labour market indicators have been more mixed of late. …

 Australia hasn’t had a recession in 25 years. Recession is defined as two down GDP quarters. The Australian dollar is now down 75 cents. When Australia’s commodites boom was in full swing, the Aussie dollar was over $1. Now may be the time to edge back into Australia. I’m looking.

Should I upgrade to Windows 10?

First, understand that Windows 7 is more reliable than Windows 10.

Windows 10 is marginally more “user friendly,” but not sufficiently to upgrade.

If you buy a new PC with Windows 10, you should be OK. Make sure you get the upcoming Microsoft bug fixes.

Do not try and “upgrade” your present Windows 7 machine to Windows 10. The upgrade process is not reliable — unless you wipe your hard drive and start from scratch, re-installing all the software you’re using — if you can find the original discs.

For me, I’m happy running Windows 7 every day. In a year or two when they’ve finished debugging Windows 10, it will be worth moving to. But only on a totally new installation or a new laptop.

Google Maps and Waze on your iPhone don’t always work. They have problems:

+ In rural areas where the house numbering may be weird and the house set way back from the road.

+ With routes they like, but which you don’t, i.e. yo know better.

+ With roads that have been closed or no longer exist.

+ On extra long trips.

In short, don’t use them blindly. Check your own logic, including street signs and house numbering.

We wasted two hours on Saturday because neither Google Maps nor Waze (which is owned by Google) could find our address.

Waze is good for police and avoiding traffic.

Prilosec NO. It causes dementia. Famotidine Yes.

I’m trying Walgreens Original Strength Acid Controller. 10 mg of famotidine. It’s a generic version of Pepcid ac. Seems to work, though avoiding heartburn by not eating dangerous foods and eating less seems to work a little also.

One web site warns that “all acid stopping drugs (not just PPIs) inhibit nutrient absorption, promote bacterial overgrowth, reduce resistance to infection and increase the risk of cancer and other serious diseases.”

Yuch.

Seems all these heartburn drugs have awful long-term effects. Not easy.

No drug or dietary supplement should be used long term. Period.

How to Fix a Bad Shoulder (from tennis or whatever)

Here are some simple exercises we all should do. Click here. Read also here.

I love gossip. And stories on Melania Trump can’t be beat. Here are my two favorites:

Who is Melania Trump, from the New Yorker. excerpts

+ Melania, who once lived a quiet life in the Zeckendorf Towers, on Union Square, lives a quiet life in the Trump Tower, on Fifth Avenue. House rules require that guests don surgical booties, so as not to scuff the marble floors.

+ Trump’s first wife was born Ivana Zelnícková, in Zlín, Czechoslovakia. If he’s as concerned as he says he is by all the “people that are from all over and they’re killers and rapists and they’re coming into this country,” he might consider building a wall around his pants.

+ Her husband (Donald) seems to define her largely by her physical advantages, which confer upon him an aura of sexual potency. “Where’s my supermodel?” he yelled from the stage, at a town-hall meeting at the University of Pennsylvania, in 1999, shortly after ushering Melania onto the Howard Stern show to discuss the couple’s “incredible sex” and her lack of cellulite.

+ Trump put his name on Melania. For the scores of Americans who thrill to his eponymous high-rises and video games and steaks, that makes her a winner. They can’t marry him, so, in order for them to become Trumps, he would have to be their father. The infatuation with Trump is essentially a mass adoption fantasy. He is Daddy Warbucks without the New Deal vibe.

+ Make America Great Again” really means “Make America Rich Again.” What easier way to cash in than by glomming on to a wealthy relative?

+ Yet Melania appears to have internalized many aspects of Donald’s culture: his ahistoricism; his unblinking gall; his false dichotomies between murderous scofflaws and deserving citizens, women who ask for nothing and nagging wives. Like Donald, Melania doesn’t drink. She never breaks ranks, not even with a teasing criticism. “I like him the way he is,” she has said, of Donald’s hair. She has taken on her husband’s signature pout, in a connubial version of people who grow to look like their dogs.

For the full piece, click here.

The famous Melania Trump article in GQ magazine.

How does a shy ex-model make her way from Slovenia to, just maybe, the White House? To Melania Trump-and to the people who know her back home-her journey to marrying The Donald is like a fairy tale, or a too-crazy-to-believe rom-com. It’s a story full of naked ambition, stunning beauty, a shockingly Trump-like dad, and even some family secrets. Maybe she’s made for Washington after all.

For the full piece, click here.

Old, but wonderful.

I’ve Outlived My Dick, a poem – by Willie Nelson

My nookie days are over, My pilot light is out.

What used to be my pride and joy, Is now my water spout.

Time was when, on its own accord, From my trousers it would spring.

But now I’ve got a full time job, To find the friggin thing.

It used to be embarrassing, The way it would behave.

For every single morning, It would stand and watch me shave.

Now as old age approaches, It sure gives me the blues.

To see it hang its little head, And watch me tie my shoes!

Harry Newton, who marvels at the number of permissions you need to get in New York. Here’s yesterday’s collection for two jobs — fixing the sidewalk and replacing the banister around the front of building (in this case, a nearby school):

 Here’s Daniel spending his morning duct-taping the permissions to a piece of plywood. He told me you have to renew these permissions every month. (Go figure.)

 

 His comment on all this? “Heh, it’s New York.”