In Search of the Perfect Investment

Last night I fell asleep with my Apple watch on my wrist.

During the night, it ran out of juice.

I woke up this morning to a dead watch. My Apple Watch won’t even tell time this morning. Even Mickey is dead:

What moron designs a watch that won’t tell time?

Some super-arrogant company which believes that whatever it designs, the people will flock to buy. This morning I read:

Apple Watch sales dropped 63% from the holiday quarter. IDC estimates just 1.5 million units were shipped in the first quarter of 2016, down from 4.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2015.

63% is a huge drop, even to my mathematically-challenged brain.

Yesterday the financial press reported that Warren Buffett and co. bought oodles of Apple stock, which jumped 3.4% on the news, prompting one of my super intelligent readers to post this comment:

Harry, you’ve been trashing Apple stock non stop and now that Warren Buffett bought a bunch it is rocketing toward the sky. APOLOGIZE TO YOUR READERS FOR ALL THE MONEY YOU’VE COST THEM ON THIS MISSED OPPORTUNITY.

 I read this morning:

Berkshire Hathaway, the multinational conglomerate led by US billionaire Warren Buffett, made a $1 billion bet on Apple stock earlier this year. It has 9.81 million shares in the iPhone maker.

This suggests that Buffett bought his Apple stock at way above what it’s selling at now (even with yesterday’s bonus bounce), viz:

 

Maybe Buffett is right. Maybe Apple is now a bargain “value” stock. Heck, it’s yielding 2.43% — much more than I get at my local bank.

I’m a techie. I buy stocks of companies whose products I like. I have an Apple Watch that doesn’t tell time. I have an iPhone that’s not the latest version, because I don’t see any benefit spending $900 to upgrade to the latest.

I don’t like Apple laptops for a million reasons — not the least of which is that I can’t swap in a new battery when my Apple laptop dies on a long plane trip. I can do that with my new Lenovo ThinkPad X260.

I’m not smart enough to “play” Apple’s stock. I don’t know if it’s a bargain at last night’s $93.88. It might be. It might not be.

But with Apple, I stick with my rule, “When in doubt, stay out.“

That philosophy — when in doubt, stay out — applies especially to biotech firms. There’s no industry that you can spin a more exciting tale than biotech. Half the firms are about to cure cancer. The other half have already.

But the disappointments come fast and furious. This one is not untypical and it may well be a bargain at today’s prices:

But when in doubt, stay out.

Bricks and mortar shops are being killed.

This chart from BusinesssInsider tells the story:

Retail stores are suffering for two reasons:

1. Amazon.

2. Lack of enticing new stuff to buy.

Hence, buy Amazon and Home Depot.

Amazon sells everything I want — at lower prices and more conveniently — even tennis balls.

Home Depot sells stuff I need to check out before I buy. I can’t buy wooden flooring on Amazon because I need to see it. More importantly, Susan needs to see it.

Home Depot just reported higher earnings and higher guidance. It’s been on my “Stocks I Like List” — on the right for eons.

Stuff I learned.

+ People who don’t reply to your emails don’t perform.

+ I love Quora. They ask interesting questions and get experts to answer them. It has nothing to do with investing. I provides me with more fascinating (irrelevant) stuff to cram into my tired brain, e.g.

+ What is the most isolated scheduled passenger plane flight path?

+ What technology should we expect cities to realistically adopt within the next 5-10 years?

+ What is it like to go through airport security in Israel?

+ In a 14-hour flight, what do pilots do when they are free?

+ Which airline flies the A380 with the highest density seating configuration? (Hint: It’s really ugly.)

+ What does death feel like?

Favorite new lawn signs.

There’s a whole industry out there making this stuff up and selling it. I bet business is booming.

    

“Trending” poetry. Among my older friends.

I’ve Outlived My Dick, a poem – by Willie Nelson

My nookie days are over,

My pilot light is out.

What used to be my pride and joy,

Is now my water spout.

Time was when, on its own accord,

From my trousers it would spring.

But now I’ve got a full time job,

To find the friggin thing.

It used to be embarrassing,

The way it would behave.

For every single morning,

It would stand and watch me shave.

Now as old age approaches,

It sure gives me the blues.

To see it hang its little head,

And watch me tie my shoes!

Sort of amusing. Over 120 million attempts to blow Donald’s hair around. Send this to your kids.

Use your cursor to move the trumpet around. Use your left click to blow the trumpet. Enjoy. Click here. 

Harry Newton, who’s thanking the Lord he hasn’t fallen down steps, hurt his shoulder, twisted his knee, hurt his hips. Old age su*cks. But you can stave it off with exercise, staying thin, not fretting excessively, getting plenty of naps and generally taking care of yourself — starting now, not when you get old, fat, creaky and crabby.