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Whatever happened to the opportunities?

Wrap your head around this thought: Maybe there are no more big opportunities, for now?

No more transformational opportunities that will do for us what the steam engine, the light bulb, the airplane, air conditioning, cellphones, fiber and the Internet, the internal combustion engine, the globalization of trade, the strip-malling of America have done for us.

In the last ten years companies have eked out super profits by making themselves super efficient by cutting workers and adding technology. forcing the customer to take over the work of call centers and bank branches. Think airlines, banks and retailers.

Maybe that’s over? Maybe technology’s heady days are over?

Our big technology companies are “growing” by firing people. Cisco is firing 5,500, Intel 12,000, Microsoft 18,000. IBM — I can’t count. Apple could layoff 25,000. See here.

You get a feeling for what’s happening in technology when there is talk that Moore’s Law has reached its end and Apple, an erstwhile creative place, hasn’t introduced a really new product in eons — its last one being the Apple Watch!

We do have AR (artificial reality), driverless cars (and occasional fatalities) and Pokemon Go.

Am I nuts? Or simply having a 4:00 AM nightmare? For that’s when I’m writing this.

Or is it simply that much of our present senior management no longer up to the job? Heck, there on BubbleVision (CNBC) have been a bunch of interviews with with senior managers who give lack of vision a whole new meaning.

There was the banking fellow who argued that the big banks kept their branches because they were important for a maintaining a “relationship” with their customers. How quaint, I thought. No one at my local branch knows my name. I only visit it to get cash. I’d get cash out of the local ATM machine, but the air conditioning is better inside the bank. And they have inside free parking for my bicycle.

There’s Walmart spending $3 billion on Jet.com (and its management) as a final desperation step before Amazon kills it, though Walmart’s shares are up.  Anyone really believe Walmart can become Amazon? Heck, I’ve never bought one thing from Walmart.com. Nor from Jet.com. And yet, I buy something from Amazon virtually every second day.

There was the fellow on CNBC from J.C. Penney which has a new retailing strategy — closing down unprofitable stores and selling home appliances in the remaining ones.He seems to believe his own statistics — that his semi-poor customers visit his stores four times a year to buy uninspiring stuff they don’t need. Have you ever tried to shop at J.C. Penney?

And then there’s the desperate fellow from Verizon who honestly believes that buying two relic Internet companies — AOL and Yahoo — will create the new magic he’s seeking for his business. Personally, I wish he’d fix his miserable cell phone service in Columbia County, just 100 miles north of New York City. It’s been awful for 30 years. I  complain regularly — once every ten years.

My phone has stopped ringing. I used to see four or five shiny new things every week — opportunities to invest in new biotech drugs, in new inventions, in new startups. There’s still new stuff out there. But less of it. And the really good stuff is really few and far between. Or is that my jaundiced perception as an investor who’s lost too much money (and time) in recent years on shiny new things?

I can see “boom” times for some industries — babies (everyone and their uncle seems to be having them), pet care stuff (more and more families are getting them), defense (look at how much Obama is selling the Saudis to destroy Yemen) and health care (everyone is living longer, even me).

My son, Michael, and my wife, Susan, are in “disposal mode.” They want a cleaner, smaller, simpler life. That’s not entirely possible for Michael who now has two kids under three. He’s still buying diapers. But Susan is aggressively downsizing. We’re scheduled to see a smaller apartment next Monday. I now run my “business” life with a scanner, a laptop and several flash drives (for backup). I run my investment “business” wherever I am — on a plane, at a coffee shop, in bed, and soon that closet I’ll be confined to, in our new downsized life.

Thank God for Fujitsu scanners. Scan the K1. Email it to my savvy accountant (who turned me onto Fujitsu scanners) and throw the original paper out.

Paper is done. I don’t have to read my mail any longer. Everyone uses electronics — from banks to airlines, from Amazon to all those stores in Sweden and Denmark. I am amazed. I just spent a week in those two countries. And I never once touched their money. I didn’t go to an ATM machine to grab a Swedish Krona or a Danish Krone. As I was writing this piece, I actually had to Google the currency they have in Sweden or Denmark? I didn’t know. Wherever I went there, they took my Visa card.  Even for the smallest transaction costing under (what was probably) $1.

I read the technology press religiously every day, desperately searching for shiny new things and shiny new companies. I read this morning’s New York Times that Japan’s exports are down:

TOKYO – Japan’s exports tumbled in July at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis with a resurgent yen and weakness in overseas economies weighing on overseas shipments – leaving the economy and the government more reliant on shaky domestic demand to drive growth.

The 14.0 percent annual decrease in exports in July matched the median estimate in a Reuters poll of economists and was the fastest decline since October 2009.

Japan’s exports have now fallen for 10 consecutive months, the longest losing streak since losses on U.S. subprime mortgages sparked a global financial crisis that almost destroyed the U.S. financial system.

Economists say there is a growing risk that weakness in exports will persist as global economic uncertainty shows little sign of receding, which could undermine Japanese policymakers’ efforts to re-energise the economy.

I can sort of understand why. I drive a 2002 Subaru. My wife drives a 2004 Mercedes. And I use a four-year old ThinkPad Lenovo laptop. The laptop is Chinese and the Subaru made mostly in Indiana — but you get the message. (I do own a newer Subaru out west.)

How does all this affect my “investing horizon”?

For one, it makes me acutely aware of fragility. Things blow up often and quickly. Wall Street is more desperate for hot new things. And far too quick to destroy stocks that disappoint. Look what happened to Hain Celestial. A wonderful company. A super CEO/founder. And an erstwhile super stock. Then “accounting issues” and down she goes. It’s now a cockroach company. I had sold my HAIN stock recently at $56.90 . I figured it had risen too high, too fast. It closed last night at $37.79.

I have heavy investments in two companies changing the world — Amazon and Facebook. But I long since bailed on Apple, since it’s clearly lost its way. The cash it has is nice, but useless. I do like solar. I want to put it on my roof. But I suspect that if I do, my local electricity company will so jack up its rates to make my solar installation uneconomic — unless I go completely off the grid. Which I can’t until Tesla (or someone) makes a battery that will let me store oodles of solar-made energy for a shady day. I’m waiting.

I am heavily invested in real estate syndications — apartments for the middle class. Heck, the middle class got to live somewhere. They got to live somewhere  — even during the next crash (we’re overdue). There’s nothing sweeter than a monthly or quarterly rent check. Oops, I correct myself. There aren’t many checks these days. God bless ACH (direct deposit banking).

The stockmarket is valued aggressively, i.e. it’s high. It’s done really well since March of 2009. That’s seven and a half years. Longer than most booms.

I don’t imagine an early crash. But I can see all those index funds I own ebbing.

Sorry for the depressing thoughts. Maybe I should go back to sleep? It’s now 5:25 AM.

Oh, my aching back.

AchingBack

Son Michael has thrown his back. He visited a doctor, who told him to take ibuprofen three times a day and take it easy. I wrote Michael a “fatherly” email:

The back is the weakest part of the body. It’s meant to perform like a bridge, but isn’t supported like a bridge.

Back problems are caused by three things:

1. Emotional stress.

2. Physical stress.

3, Lack of sleep.

The trigger is often not clear. It might be lifting something heavy — heaving your heavy bag into the overhead bin. And bingo your back goes. It might be putting too much strain on your back two days ago, like doing stupid in the gym.

To my brain, the best long-term cure (it worked for me) is:

A. Regular naps. Crawl under your desk for 20 minutes each day. Learn when you can sleep deepest for the shortest time. After lunch often works.

B. Learn not to put pressure on your back — like when lifting, getting into a car, pushing yourself too hard.

C. Don’t flare up. Don’t get angry. Maybe it’s not significant? Maybe your customer, boss, supplier is acting stupid? Change customers, bosses, suppliers. Stress is not worth it.

D. Don’t eat much. Too much food messes up the body’s weight distribution. Extra weight really puts pressure on the back.

E. Go easy on the gym. In the gym there are pressures on the body which you don’t get in normal life. The body is not prepared for the pressures in the gym. No matter what the trainer says. His “normal” life is the gym. Yours is the office.

F. Avoid doctors. They’re useless. Physio-terrorists, even worst. They want you back every day for eons. X-rays and MRIs are not useful. 99% of back problems cure themselves in six weeks — if you allow them and Don’t Do Stupid.

Australian Good news.

The Queensland Government has stopped a controversial project that uses “death-row dingoes” implanted with time-release poison capsules to kill feral goats on a Great Barrier Reef island.

Environment Minister Dr. Steven Miles said the “misconceived program” posed a threat to native wildlife. Dah!

Citibank is beyond irritating.

They’re changing my Visa to a MasterCard. No reason given.

The sad part (for me) is that I have oodles of Auto Pay merchants linked to my Citibank Visa.

Good news: If you bitch, they’ll give you 10,000 miles on American Airlines. Nothing else.

The miles are better than a slap in the belly with a cold fish.

 Wonderful video. 7 Hidden iPhone Camera Features That Every Photographer Should Use.

IphonePhotos
The right picture is the default iPhone photo. The left one is done y adjusting the camera before you take the photo. For the video with useful tips, click here.

Favorite tattoo.

Tatoo

HarryNewton

Harry Newton who remains endlessly fascinated with the creativity of what comes out of Donald Trump’s mouth. Virtually all his “facts” are wrong, his “solutions” are not spelled out (as to how and cost) and his accusations baseless. But it is creative. His handlers are trying to put him “on message.” But he clearly doesn’t want to be there. He’s having too much fun with the stuff he makes up that pops out. The sad part is that his words are having a terrible cost here and abroad. Here he’s encouraging violence, hatred and uncertainty for many millions of hard-working taxpaying people. You see the violence and hatred he’s encouraging among schoolkids and red necks. You really don’t want to be latin, muslim, or dark-skinned in America today. Overseas, our allies fear for an unstable world. This is not what we want in a President.

16 Comments

  1. TomFromVa says:

    Hey – for back problems, do 20 sit ups every day.

    For innovation / investment try biotech, biomed, and health care.

    And for amusement tell me who this reminds you of – bonus for telling who it IS.

  2. Tom in CA says:

    Harry, here’s my recommendation: don’t comment on Trump based on what you read/see in the media. Watch a rally, eg, the latest in MI:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K678kE_bZq8
    (skip to 41:00)

    Now let’s discuss his “facts” and “solutions”.

  3. Scooter says:

    Lack of technology? No. Lack of innovation? No. Your government does not want to further technology as it is more difficult for the Asses to control the Masses. Hence all the regulations, ease of lawsuits, the unavoidable health care scam and high taxes on business and so on an so forth.

    I don’t think you have been listening to Trump. For many of us, he may not be our first choice, but as least he has not sold the country out to the multiple highest bidders for personal gain.

  4. Fderfler says:

    Barriers? Intellectual property laws… liability laws… (actually, court decisions and precedents rather than codified laws) It is awfully damn hard to do a new thing that isn’t proscribed by IP or liability.

    You won’t convince me and I won’t convince you about Trump. I could wish you would stop reading the analysis (sic) in the NYT and other traditional media and really listen to what he says. Be that as it may, since no moral person could vote for Hillary, I will be content if you vote for the nice lady from the Green party, Jill Stein. Actually, 60+% of things Jill says make good sense. I suggest you investigate voting for Jill.

  5. pahowley says:

    Opportunities: Businesses related to the aging populations, and some of its effects on those younger, is huge and growing. Agricultural improvements, too, as the world populations expand. Oh, and security as a major segment of the world, radical Islamism, is spreading, motivated and getting more “traditional”, i.e., suppress and kill non-believers. Robots, of course. And services or such for the giant growing population of unemployable as robots take over (driven also by insane minimum wag laws).

  6. barryl says:

    My bank changed from Mastercard to Visa, don’t know why.

  7. KC Chuck says:

    Harry-This is a really scary article by Don Winslow, a great author and insider about the drug wars in Mexico and the effects here in the U. S.

    http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a46918/heroin-mexico-el-chapo-cartels-don-winslow/

  8. laughnow says:

    Why dont you list the issues Trump ‘lies’ about for us? In response Ill list pages of issues Hillary has lied about.

    • barryl says:

      The problem is that Hillary’s lies are not as entertaining.

    • gotmilk7926 says:

      Why bother? I’ll list Hillary’s lies for you: Emails, Benghazi, Benghazi, emails and Benghazi.

      Politifact takes care of your challenge for you, and me. Anyone can check their “Hillary Clinton” and “Donald Trump” files. There are six categories for each file entry: True, Mostly True, Half True, Mostly False, False and “Pants on Fire” False. The last three can be lumped together as being anywhere from Mostly False to “POF” False. I’ll call it the “Full of Sh*t factor (FOS). The results? Hillary scores 68 out of 241 for a FOS factor of 28.2 percent. Donald Trump, conman, fraud and casual liar of the likes we’ve never seen in American politics, scores a whopping 157 out of 224 for a FOS factor of 70.1 percent. That’s seven times out of 10 that he’s FOS, every time he opens his lying mouth in some consequential way.

      I know; I know – Politifact is part of The Conspiracy.

      • Tom in CA says:

        > Emails, Benghazi

        Just two of the most recent, either of which would put any other mere citizen in jail, right?

        > I know; I know – Politifact is part of The Conspiracy.

        They have been often wrong. google “politifact bias”

        As Harry always says, “Check, check, check!!!”

        • gotmilk7926 says:

          No one would go to jail because Benghazi is BULLSHIT and, as to emails, you don’t go to jail for bad judgment: you go to jail only if you’ve COMMITTED A CRIME.

          As to Politifact bias, and your source, I quote from that source: “We note that PolitiFact’s stories appear to damage Republicans far more
          often than Democrats despite the fact that PF tends to choose about as
          many stories dealing with Republicans as for Democrats.” Gee how revealing – perhaps, just perhaps, that’s because today’s Republican Party stands alone atop a political podium … one built on mountain of conspiracy theories, slander and bullshit???

          The conman, fraud. bankruptcy artist, serial visitor to marriage altars and divorce courts and consummate liar will not be our next POTUS. I hope you enjoy the next four years – I know I will.

  9. Rob says:

    Totally disagree about new technologies. I think the world is on the verge of tremendous advances. Fusion for one, if it can be done. There are major obstacles to overcome. If it can be made to work (get more energy out than put in), its a game changer. Enormous, practically unlimited source of power. World history will be labeled before fusion and after. Another is robotics. Hotbed of startups, big money investments and new tech. Another is connectivity, the “internet of things”. Talked about by many. New applications, analytics, business intelligence and data management. Ways of communicating and and processing will change drastically. A lot of people are going to be left behind if they don’t adapt. Lastly quantum computers. Another game changer. Imagine computers 1,000 times faster. Needs years of development, but Moore’s law will no longer be applicable.
    How to invest in these new technologies? I’m working in it.

    • harrynewton says:

      Lots of great technology. I agree. But I don’t see the great investment opportunities. I can’t wait for fusion, for the Internet of Things, for quantum computers….. for the next Oracle, Microsoft, Apple, etc. I’m looking, just as you are. Tell us when you find something, please.

      • john_f says:

        Electric transportation and a solar economy look like they could grow quickly in the next 10 years. Have you seen the talk by Tony Seba on the disruptive technologies? Seba is a lecturer at Stanford and has written a book on ‘Clean Energy Disruptions’. This presentation is about an hour – but it is a fascinating concept:

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=Kxryv2XrnqM
        I’d be interested in hearing what you all think about his argument that this transformation could happen quickly.
        As to how to invest – FSLR and SPWR? Probably not TSLA at this point. Solar City might be a good bet with Elon Musk’s idea of supplying solar roofing systems (as opposed to solar panels). I’m thinking that companies that make internal combustion engines would not be a good choice 🙂

  10. Lucky says:

    Uncles having babies…hmmmmmmm!
    Someone could invent something to stop Robo calls and get very rich.