In Search of the Perfect Investment

There’s a desperation out there. No big market opportunities. Hence the huge takeover activity. Buy what you can’t create.

This is not the 1990s when I could start a magazine every two years to cover new technology. We’ve hit a bump in the technology road.

Apple’s only new product in many years — the Apple Watch — is bombing. There’s talk of an Apple car and an Apple TV. But it’s just talk. Apple remains a phone company struggling to catch up with a flatening demand.

Content is booming. Hence HBO and Netflix. A monthly subscription to Netflix is much less than going to the movies.

Hence why AT&T is interested in vastly overpaying for Time Warner, which owns HBO.

I thought there might be a play here. Eventually AT&T will stop falling.But, boy, I hate catching falling knives.

I do like Microsoft. The old CEO Steve Ballmer lost to Google in search, Apple in smartphones, in mobile operating systems to Apple/Google, in media to Netflix and the cloud to Amazon.

The new CEO, Satya Nadella, is far more savvy. Microsoft is pushing hard into the cloud and doing well.

I like what I’m seeing. Next Wednesday announces a new service. I’m wrangling an invitation to the New York City press conference. Microsoft’s stock is finally breaking out:

News of stocks I  have liked have not been good this earnings season:

 1. Caterpillar lowered its outlook for profit this year. The retailer of large industrial equipment said it expected 2016 earnings per share excluding restructuring costs to be $3.25, down from an earlier projection of $3.55. “Economic weakness throughout much of the world persists and, as a result, most of our end markets remain challenged,” CEO Doug Oberhelman said. The company’s sales have not grown on an annual basis since 2012

2. Under Armour shares slumped 14% after the company beat third-quarter earnings forecasts but warned about future sales growth. The retailer said it expected revenue to rise in the low 20% range during 2017 and 2018, which would be its slowest pace since 2009, according to Bloomberg. Third-quarter earnings beat as demand for Under Armour’s apparel, shoes, and accessories grew.

3. 3M Co, the maker of Scotch tape and Post-it notes, is struggling to grow sales in emerging markets, and on Tuesday lowered its full-year revenue and earnings forecasts for the second time. The company now expects revenue to be flat for the year, excluding the impact of currencies, down from a prior estimate of flat-1%.

4. Chipotle missed, sending its stock down.

 50% of all cancers would never happen, except for:

1. Smoking

2. Obesity.

3. Lack of exercise.

I’m off to a cancer symposium tomorrow morning.

Our Nation’s Opiod Addiction

2.6 million of us are addicted to prescription painkillers and heroin. 30,000 of us die each year because of that addiction. With the advent of drugs like OxyContin, the pharmaceutical industry expanded painkiller marketing away from end-of-life treatment to more common ailments like back pain. Companies like Purdue Pharma, the creator of OxyContin, tried to reassure patients the drugs are rarely addictive. But by 2000, doctors were writing nearly six million OxyContin prescriptions per year. OxyContin sales eclipsed Viagra sales.

John Oliver says an estimated 75 percent of opioid addicts start with prescription drugs like OxyContin, Percocet and Vicodin before turning to heroin because of its cheaper price and augmented effects. But since many Americans depend on prescribed painkillers, it’s impossible to eliminate them altogether.

You can watch the entire Oliver show here.

The September 12 issue of TIME Magazine

TIME highlighted “7 Surprising Benefits of Exercise“

1. Exercise is great for your brain.

2. You might get happier.

3. It might make you age slower.

4. It’ll make your skin look better.

5. Amazing things can happen in just a few minutes.

6. It can help you recover from a major illness.

7. Your fat cells will shrink.

TIME asked: How much exercise do I really need to be to doing?

The World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advise most adults to do 150 minutes of moderate intensity aerobic physical activity each week and twice-weekly muscle strengthening.

Favorite billboard

Favorite recent New Yorker cartoons

Harry Newton who hasn’t enjoyed two days down on the market. But the tennis has been good. Exercise is great for he brain, or something.