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The Black Swan Events that are Donald J. Trump’s stockmarket

This hasn’t been easy, which is why you haven’t heard from me in several days. Three slides from CNBC today tell all.

First, Mr. Trump is killing tech stocks.

techstocks

Second, he’s doing wonders for “industrial”stocks:

industrials

And for defense stocks — like my favorite LMT. Here’s the latest month:

lmtmonth

And stocks like HON and GM.

Third, coincidentally OPEC said it would cut oil production. The price of oil and oil stocks skyrocketed.

oilhighs

Fourth, interest rates have risen strongly, benefiting banks. Here’s the financial ETF of the last month:

xlflastmonth

The gurus call this “sector rotation.” It’s isn’t easy to “play.” There seem to be two rules — old ones no less:

+ Diversification. I’ve been far too invested in tech stocks — though NVDA has been a standout, until today.

+ When a stock drops 10+% from its peak, it’s probably a good idea to loosen up. That’s called Harry’s Inviolate Stop Lose Rule.

I don’t like the idea of loosening up on Amazon. It’s only fallen 6% from its recent peak. And, most importantly, everybody is buying only from Amazon these days. My friends have given up stores and malls. Their logic is “once you’ve seen a mall, you’ve seen them all.” (Sorry about that.) Here’s Amazon over the past month. I’d buy more of it, except that I already own so much.

amazonoverthelastmonth

Stay away from store-based retailers — unless they sell something unique. Most don’t.

Never invest in startups. Never invest in private companies.

+ 99% of them fail. Maybe higher.

+ You always get the worst pick. They best go to friends and family. The second best go to the best venture capitalists — the ones who appear on CNBC and Bloomberg. The worst go to you. They call that sucking hind t*t.

+ Their founder/entrepreneurs don’t listen. So, whatever advice your proffer — as a board member or a shareholder — they won’t listen. Trust me. Nobody listens.

+ They don’t report like a public company — quarterly, annually etc. so you never know what’s happening. Which may be good, since what’s happening is often bad.

+ You can’t sell your shares. There’s no market for the stock you own. And even, if there were, the SEC would put so many roadblocks ahead of you that slitting your wrists would seem like a better option. Item: A friend is trying to sell his stock in a small public company. The company has put a restriction on his stock that he can only sell 5,000 shares a day. He wants to sell hundreds of thousands. The company is afraid that his sales will be “deleterious” to the price of the stock.  My spell checked tried to change deleterious to delirious. Same thing.

+ Some private companies go public. Their shares plummet. So they reverse split. Then they do something really stupid — hire Computershare to “manage” their outstanding shares. Which then sends Harry a letter telling me “Your immediate attention required” otherwise they’re giving my shares to “Unclaimed Property” of New York State. Calling them involves a one hour wait on hold — I don’t make this up. Or you can register with their web site, which I did. It included creating this:

thisisstupid

After half an hour of every conceivable idiot “security” question — like my father’s middle name (he didn’t have one). And finally after sending my verification emails, I get this:

welcomecomputershare

Fortunately the address they have for me is semi-accurate, since they didn’t give me a chance to fix it.

Dealing with all this nonsense is simply too time consuming. It’s cutting into my tennis.

In short, never invest in private companies. NEVER.

CHECK. CHECK. CHECK.

+ Check that you have only one action item in each email you send. Unless it’s flattery — when the more the better.

+ Check that all your keyboard needed was cleaning — before you ordered a new one.

+ Check your grammar and spelling mistakes before issuing that important company press release. It’s is not the same as its. And companys president is not the same as company’s president. And there is a difference between your and you’re.

The InspireClear iPhone 7 plus case.

Susan bought one to protect her new phone.  We just installed it. I’m impressed with its quality, thick plastic screen protector and installation tools that make sure you don’t have any bubbles on the screen.

saharacase

It’s $21.95 from Amazon. Worth every penny if it saves your $800 iPhone plus. Click here.

Susan loves her iPhone 7 plus. Its big screen is great for grandkids’ photos, videos and FaceTime.

I still have a the iPhone 6. Enshrouded by a Mophie. I doubt I’ll get an iPhone 7. I tested Susan’s camera against mine. And I like my pictures better. Go figure.

Favorite stupid cartooon

raisethedead

Trump Picks El Chapo to Run D.E.A.

ed-chapo

NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report)-Just days after picking Betsy DeVos to run the Department of Education, President-elect Donald Trump has tapped another wealthy outsider by naming Joaquín Guzmán, known as “El Chapo,” to head the Drug Enforcement Administration.

In an official statement, Trump said that El Chapo’s “tremendous success in the private sector” showed that he has what it takes to “shake things up” at the D.E.A.

Trump’s appointment of the former drug lord surprised many in Washington, in no small part because acrimony between the two allegedly prompted El Chapo, in 2015, to put a hundred-million-dollar bounty on Trump’s head.

But, appearing on CNN, the Trump surrogate Kellyanne Conway said that the selection of El Chapo should surprise no one. “Mr. Trump always said that he would surround himself with the best people,” she said.

When asked why Trump had readily offered a job to El Chapo while still mulling the fate of another former adversary, Mitt Romney, Conway said, “El Chapo might not have voted for Mr. Trump, but that’s because he’s Mexican and in jail, and Mitt Romney is neither.”

The appointment of the former drug kingpin is far from a done deal, however, as associates of El Chapo report that he is “concerned” that being a member of the Trump Administration would be bad for his brand.

HarryNewton
Harry Newton, who’s finding that dividends from syndicated real estate are more predictable than “profits” from owning stocks. Except that Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) is a standout winner. But I don’t know why.

 

3 Comments

  1. Fderfler says:

    What do you mean by your headline? WHAT Black Swan events? You still believe that idiot Krugman?

  2. Fderfler says:

    Observations:
    1. Disintermediating the disintermediators. Uh, who needs Facebook if we can hear from the President directly? Netflix is down because Netflix is what you do when you don’t have a job and have no hope for yourself or your family. To quote the WSJ, “Consumer Confidence is Roaring Again.” Amazon and Alphabet? Buy!
    The “technology investors” out there past Oklahoma are in their own echo chambers. Screw ’em.
    2. Interesting lesson in retail: Retail gun sales fell through the floor the day after the election. If we are feeling safer and our confidence is high, maybe we don’t need that new Kimber. Before the election, buyers were paying a “delivery fee” as a bonus to get a place in line for highly desirable weapons. The day after the election, empty stores. SO, gun retailers, not being liberal stupids, did NOT run to the government asking for a bailout.. instead they held SALES! Discounted prices! The result : “FBI Says Black Friday Set New Gun Background Check Record”
    Capitalism works!