When I quit my job in Australia to come to the U.S. to school, my boss there said “I’d love the Americans because they were just like me — they substituted enthusiasm for intelligence.”
At first I thought it was an insult. But then I realized it was a profound compliment. It’s what drives this country. We believe it’s possible. And we do it.
My business career was no different. I believed the new venture was possible and I did it. If it failed — and some did — I’d walk, and start another one. There was never a shortage of opportunities. And there still isn’t.
Donald Trump clearly follows the same philosophy. Do it. Hope it works. Get out if it doesn’t. If it does, do more of it.
When I went on the lecture circuit (to promote our publishing business), I found that what sold was a vision of where the world was going. My Vision was networking, computer telephony (adding smarts to telecom) and later the Internet. If you bought into Harry’s vision (and many did), you got rich. We sold one startup computer telephony company to Intel for over $800 million.
Trump’s Vision today is pure business-friendly — reduce taxes, slash regulations, and build infrastructure.
No one knows if it will work. No one knows if it will lift GDP growth to 4%. No one cares. If you believe (and everybody now is), you’ll build factories, you’ll employ people, you’ll launch new products… you’ll invest in the stockmarket (hence our present boom).
There is a palpable euphoria in the air. You can hear it on CNBC and other business TV networks. You can hear it in the voices of all the CEOs being interviewed.
They’re psyched. They want to believe. Growth is more fun. Launching new products is even more fun. Employing people feels good.
Will it last? Who knows. Who cares. For now, it feels good. When it ebbs, we’ll dump.
Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman believes. He reflects what CEOs are thinking. Here’s what he told BusinessInsider a week ago:
Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman is excited about President-elect Donald Trump’s America.
The billionaire private equity executive, who was recently named chair of Trump’s economic advisory forum, described the vast regulatory changes that could potentially come to Wall Street – and corporate America – under the new administration. He was speaking at a Goldman Sachs conference.
“If you look at the architecture of the world, it’s going to change very substantially,” Schwarzman said.
He described the different “piles” of regulatory changes to expect. The first, he said, are executive actions that can be reversed relatively quickly. The second are changes that will require hearings; those will take more like six or nine months.
Then there are individuals heading regulatory agencies that will eventually turn over, which could take as long as a year and a quarter, Schwarzman said. Lastly, there are changes that can only be addressed through legislation, which are much less likely because they need to be passed in the Senate.
“But this is going to be very, very substantial,” Schwarzman said.
In addition to regulatory changes, he said, we will see tax reform via reconciliation, which only requires a majority of Senate votes.
“It doesn’t require any Democrats, assuming the Republicans vote as a block,” he said. “Both Republicans and Democrats have wanted tax reform but they couldn’t do it for ideological reasons, and now don’t have to worry about those ideological reasons because you get enough votes, you can just change the law.”
He said the country needs to see both corporate and individual tax reform, as a large portion of US companies are registered as limited partnerships and other non-corporate entities.
“We also have the ability, under reconciliation, to bring back all this trapped cash abroad,” Schwarzman said, adding that we could see a 10% tax rate on cash held abroad. “So that will probably come back into the US economy.”
Schwarzman said there is no element of the current regulatory structure that won’t undergo a “significant” change, and that the revamp will drive GDP, make the US a friendlier place for foreign capital, and help accelerate growth.
“I anticipate with a pretty high level of confidence that this stuff is going to happen,” he said. “And this is as big a change happening all at once — you know, I’ve been in finance for 45 years — this’ll be the biggest.”
No comment.
The Hasidic Jew
A good Hasidic family is most concerned that their 30-year-old son is unmarried. So, they call a marriage broker and ask him to find their son a good wife. The broker comes over to their house and spends a long time asking questions of the son and his parents as to what they want in a wife/daughter-in-law.
They give him a long shopping list of requirements. The marriage broker takes a long time looking, and finally asks to visit the family again. He then tells them of a wonderful woman he has found.
He says she’s just the right age for the son. She keeps a Glatt Kosher home, she regularly attends synagogue and knows the prayers by heart. She’s a wonderful cook. She loves children and wants a large family. And, to crown it all off, she’s gorgeous. After hearing all this, the family is very impressed and begins to get excited about the prospects of a wedding in the near future.
But the son pauses and asks: ‘Is she also good in bed?’
The marriage broker answers, ‘Some say yes, some say no….’
Harry Newton, who indulges himself again, with photos of his grandchildren.
These are Eleanor and Peter.
This is daughter Claire and her daughter, my granddaughter, Sophie.
I wish we all enjoyed life as much as these kids are. I’ve finally bought some banks — KEY and JPM. I like DISH for takeover. EOG and XOM are doing better as oil rises. My biggest percentage gainers are SQ and CENT. For more picks, see the list on the right side of the blog here. It’s an amazing world!
Harry, what are your thoughts on Lockheed Martin vs Raytheon?
But but but the Rooshins? The New York Times says the Rooshins will control Trump. CNN says the hammer and cycle will appear on the US flag. (I kid you not.. those words were spoken by a commentator on CNN!) To heck with prosperity, “The Russians are Coming The Russians are coming” bellows the Coastal echo chamber.
Less tongue-in-cheek, Schwarzman’s “predictions’ are about as good as any other Trump predictions. Trump’s greatest enemies could well be the old guard GoP like that fool McCain. (What’s with Rubio? Why is he in McCain’s thrall?) There could be a middle-left coalition that works to block those tax cuts Schwarzman loves so dearly. It’s all too soon. I believe the statistic is that EVERY modern Republican president has walked into a recession. THAT would be the buying opportunity.