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Down today. Up yesterday. This is extreme, (and difficult) volatility.

Here are the last two days, until  noon Friday, when I posted this blog:


Volatility is what we now have. Will the tax bill pass? Won’t it?

This year it’s been good:


Should I take some profits off the table? Should I invoke my inviolate 10% stop loss on stocks like Square which have been fallen strongly, beyond the 10%?

The answer is undoubtedly yes. But be wary.. Not good to sell when the market is panicking, as it clearly is today.

The tax bill

My cynical brain says Trump is running Washington as a self-enrichment scheme. Not dissimilar to the kleptocracies I’ve seen in Africa and the middle east. Otherwise why the urgency? Check this chart out:


Check this out:

The House and Senate bills eliminate the favored treatment of like-kind exchanges – except for “real property.” Owners of paintings, for example, would not be able to sell a Cezanne and buy a Van Gogh tax-free. But owners of real estate could keep flipping the properties until they die without ever paying any capital gains tax. (And if the estate tax is abolished, the gains might go untaxed forever.)

Some of my syndications have recently been doing exchanges (they’re called 1031 exchanges). You roll the profits from the old one into the new one, and take your rewards in a tax-free refinancing. It’s a wonderful tax loophole that should be closed.

Personally, I don’t see the urgency for tax reform, which is normally done when the economy needs boost. Which it doesn’t now. But our president clearly needs to get richer.

I suspect that the proposed tax reform law may hurt me because it won’t let me deduct local real estate and local state and city taxes.

New York State, where I live, is not tax-friendly.

But, if tax reform passes, the stockmarket will go up and we’ll all do OK.

Here’s why UNH is doing well.


My philosophy. Buy the stocks of companies who are raising their prices. Make up in stock profits what you’re losing on higher premiums.

What I worry about at night: A war with North Korea.

North Korea won’t start a war. I believe that. But accidents happen:

The greatest risk, analysts tend to say, is from an accident or miscalculation that might send North Korea and the United
States into an unintended conflict. That’s how war would start.
Maybe, for instance, the United States sends a bomber near North Korea as a symbolic threat, but the bomber veers off course toward Pyongyang, which North Korea perceives as the start of a war, leading it to fire missiles in perceived self-defense.

The New York Times
did a piece:
Seven Critical Truths About North Korea

 (1) It’s over. North Korea is a nuclear power now.

 (2) North Korea can probably strike Washington and New York now.
(3) North Korea is rational, which means it’s unlikely to start a war.
(4) China might not be able to solve the North Korea problem.
(5) North Korea has shown it can endure extreme economic punishment.
(6) North Korea may not want war, but it’s still scary.
(7) Worry, but don’t burst a blood vessel.
You can read the entire article here.

The deconstruction of our Federal government

Trump is hollowing out Washington — The State Department. The EPA. The CSFB.

I am not not a fan of excessive government regulation. But I am a fan of having agencies protect our air, our cars, our drugs, and our people from being screw*d by banks. We forget about 2007, when the banks brought the world economy to its knees. We forget about criminal institutions like Wells Fargo who have pulled the most egregious stunts on their customers.

Before the CSFB (Consumer Financial Protection Agency) is closed down, this piece from The Week Magazine is worth reading:

Trump’s war on consumers by Paul Waldman

he Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is in the news, but the reason – an arcane bureaucratic dispute about the circumstances under which the president gets to fill a vacancy atop the agency – is not what we should really be talking about. Instead, we should take this opportunity to consider whether it’s the government’s job to protect consumers at all. Because the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress are showing quite clearly that their answer to that question is “no.”

The argument over leadership at the CFPB, where director Richard Cordray stepped down after appointing a deputy director who may or may not be the rightful acting head of the agency, brings that question into sharp relief. President Trump has asked Office of Management and Budget boss Mick Mulvaney to serve as acting CFPB chief, not despite but precisely because of the fact that Mulvaney believes the agency shouldn’t exist at all. Mulvaney will take the opportunity to put that belief into action, so if you’re one of the corporations that the CFPB has bedeviled over the last few years, this is your lucky day.

And who are those corporations? Predatory lenders, banks who mislead and defraud their customers, payday lenders charging usurious interest rates, abusive debt collectors, and all kinds of other financial service companies that exploit consumers. When the CFPB was created as part of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, it was an idea at once obvious and revolutionary: an agency devoted entirely to consumer protection in the economic realm.

From the outset, Republicans were appalled.

But since they couldn’t come out and say that they just don’t think consumers deserve the government’s protection, they focused on the agency’s structure, especially the fact that the director serves a five-year term and can only be fired for cause. This, they said, represented the kind of unaccountable, even tyrannical power that would make James Madison faint dead away with horror at how twisted American government had become. “It is the single-most unaccountable and powerful agency in the history of our republic, running afoul of every tenet of separation of powers and checks and balances,” thundered Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), chair of the House Financial Services Committee and the recipient of $1.5 million in campaign contributions from the financial industry.

Here’s a tip: When lawmakers begin to argue based on abstract principles like the separation of powers, it’s a signal that at the very least one ought to be skeptical that there might be a different agenda at work. Republicans have shown many times that they have zero interest in the principles they claim to hold. They weren’t actually concerned about consular security or proper email management – they just wanted something to beat up Hillary Clinton with. They aren’t actually concerned about deficits, as they always claim when there’s a Democrat in the White House, and they’re proving it right now with a tax bill that would add $1.5 trillion in deficits so corporations can get a tax break. Lofty ideals are simply offered as cover for some far less savory purpose.

So it is with their attacks on the CFPB, and even those who try to get more specific fail to persuade. If you look around at conservative think tanks, you won’t find much discussion of the billions of dollars the agency has forced financial companies to return to victims of scams, frauds, and abuse. Instead, you’ll find complaints that “the CFPB is limiting the availability of credit, and curtailing Americans’ choices for investment and wealth creation.” Ask yourself: Do you feel like your choices for investment and wealth creation are being curtailed? And if so, is it because banks and credit card companies are being too strictly monitored? If only we could go back to before the agency was created – let’s say, 2007 – when blissfully autonomous Americans had the freedom to exercise their financial choices! It’s not like anything bad happened as a result, right?

Republicans may not get their wish of simply shutting down the CFPB. As The New York Times reported a few months ago:

At one point, contemplating a high-profile run on the agency, the White House examined polling data from political bellwether states, two people briefed on the matter said. The agency, they concluded, was too popular to pick a public fight with. [The New York Times]

But even if Cordray’s successor pick prevails in the short term, and even if the administration shies away from shuttering the CFPB entirely, President Trump will eventually appoint a new permanent director. And make no mistake: This person is likely to be virulently opposed to the mission of the agency he’s being hired to lead. He’ll then proceed to hollow it out from the inside, just as other Trump appointees are doing in areas like environmental protection where Republicans think the government shouldn’t be meddling. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will become the Corporation Financial Protection Bureau.

There are plenty of other examples in which the administration is finally bringing to fruition long-held Republican hopes to screw over consumers. The Federal Communications Commission, for example, is about to undo the “net neutrality” rules put in place during the Obama administration. But we can all rely on the good will of companies like Comcast and AT&T to have our best interests at heart, right? Haven’t they shown that they can be trusted?

There is a higher principle at work here, and it’s one Republicans talk about a lot: They’re deeply concerned about maintaining “freedom.” But it’s not your freedom they’re worried about. It’s the freedom of corporations to do pretty much whatever they want to you, with as little oversight, regulation, and fear of punishment as possible. That’s what the debate over the CFPB is really about. And it looks like for now, their version of “freedom” is the one that’s going to prevail.

CSFB has caused a return of at least $11.8 billion to consumers. It looks like Trump’s nominee Mick Mulvaney is now running the CFPB. Bye. Bye. CFPB.

Magicians always fascinate. These ones are good.
Click here.

Here’s what you can buy for $88 million.

Beyonce and Jay-Z just bought this. It’s in Bel Air, Los Angeles. It has  30,000 square feet of living space in six glass-walled structures, four outdoor pools, a spa and wellness center, a full-sized basketball court, and a 15-car garage.

Taxes on it should be well over $2 million and won’t be deductible, if the the tax “reform” goes through.



Sad comment on today’s world

It’s hard to understand the idiocy of the male. It’s sad to see so many brilliant careers be destroyed by gross idiocy.


Harry Newton, figures there are really four “health” things he should concentrate on:

+ Keep moving. Do something every day that makes me sweat,

+ Drink water. Lots of it.

+ Don’t do stupid. Watch that final stair. Don’t lift heavy stuff. Drive slowly.

+ Take naps.

  • gerryb Harry, I hope you have time to read this link and comment on your blog.

  • Scooter

    Money seems to be moving out of technology stocks, but into what?
    What companies will gain the most from the anticipated tax relief? Certainly not companies like Tesla or Amazon as they don’t make a profit. GE doesn’t seem to pay much taxes either.

    Where to go next?