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The stockmarket is in a good place. Here’s why.

Our biggest mistakes:

+ We focus on the “noise,” not the market.

+ We focus on the day, not the trend.

+ We focus on the antics, forgetting “antics” are not new. They’re just different.

 + We panic.

It’s been several days since I posted. I’ve been reading, thinking, analyzing and watching Zuck.

My big conclusion: Don’t panic. We’re in a good place.

I want every reader of this blog to watch this video:

CiovaccoTradeWar,jpg

To watch it (and you must), click here.

My friend Pete Rawlings turned me onto Ciovacco Capital’s stockmarket videos.

I can sum this video up:

+ We’re at an inflexion point. We’ve been there before.

+ Here’s how to see what happens next.

+ Here’s what to do.

Here are a few “slides” pulled out of the video. You can get the video’s gist from these three slides.

Most important is the list of Common Missteps in the third slide.

penalty stayingout. CiovaccoCapital

I will be forever grateful to my dear friend and very successful investor, Pete Rawlings, for introducing me to the Ciovacco Capital’s videos.

Thank you Pete. I’ll see you for lunch today at 12:30 PST.

Cringing at Trump, maybe

My friends cringe at Trump’s antics. But my other friends, his supporters, love him.

My friends don’t understand what motivates his supporters. My friends don’t understand why Trump’s antics don’t turn his suppporters off.

Diane Hessan has been doing an amazing job tracking a group of voters — half Clinton, half Trump. Her insights come out every month or so in The Boston Globe.

Here are her latest insights. This stuff is eye opening:

All is well in Trumpland

by DIANE HESSAN in the Boston Globe

“YOU HAVE TO ADMIT, Trump has done more in the 14 months he’s been in office to further the best interests of the country than anyone on the left can accept,” says Jack, a Republican from California. Although Jack supports increased gun control, and worries about Trump’s meeting with North Korea, he is generally happy with the president’s progress. “There is certainly a lot to cringe about, but when I consider the alternative — a career politician with more skeletons in her closet than a Halloween party store — I am OK with the brash, nasty guy.”

While progressives focus on the Robert Mueller Russia investigationthe constant churn in White House staff, tariffs that seem to be backfiring, and the president’s unwillingness to read his notes prior to a phone call with Vladmir Putin, all is well — mostly — in Trumpland.

In my ongoing research with 450 voters from across the political spectrum, 225 voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election. Despite the drama and chaos surrounding our president, over 90 percent of those who voted for him tell me that they have no regrets about their choice. To them, hope and change is finally here: a president whose outrage matches theirs, who is committed daily to focusing on their key issues, and who is moving at record speed. Says Theresa from Virginia, “The establishment is turning out to be the Titanic — and the rogue captain is off on a speedboat.”

The predominant theme for Trump voters is the economy. Jeff, a Wall Street executive, sends me statistics weekly about improvements in the Dow Jones, unemployment rates, and consumer confidence. For most, however, it’s more about how those metrics are affecting both their psyches and their pocketbooks. Just as Hillary Clinton’s remark about “deplorables” was the nail in the coffin for her candidacy, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s remark about tax cuts producing “crumbs” for workers made over 80 percent of my voters recoil. “I would like Pelosi to take a look at my paycheck,” says Hope from Ohio. “Maybe an extra $252 every month isn’t much to her or to the liberal elites, but to me, it has been life-changing.” Hope says her neighbors feel the same way, and that one neighbor was moved to tears when she saw the difference in her take-home pay. Ron, a conservative from Mississippi, agrees. “Down here, there is a feeling of momentum. In our churches and even in our bars, people are talking about more business, more pay and less taxes. I know that there are other issues in the country, but when you are in debt and trying to feed your family, not much else matters.”

People often ask me how Trump supporters can ignore the chaos in the White House, the character flaws, and the lying. It’s mostly because over half of Americans can’t make ends meet; people report how they pay more than half of their income in rent, avoid going to the doctor because they can’t afford the copayment, and lie awake at night worrying about whether they can pay utility bills. Says Stan, of West Virginia, who took on an extra evening job temporarily so that his family could travel to his niece’s wedding: “I am so tired that I barely know what those kids in Parkland are marching for.”

Trump supporters are troubled by the president’s behavior, but it doesn’t surprise them. Says Kenny from Louisiana, “I think Trump lies daily, and by that I mean, he’s a classic salesman. Everything is millions and billions, smooth and the best. He won’t be negative about anything. Do I think he has stuff in the closet that he doesn’t want out and may lie about? Yes. I couldn’t care less. He never preached he was a saint and then all of the sudden we found out he had horns. We all knew this and accepted it.”

“Trump was not my first, second, or third choice in the GOP pool,” says Lucinda from Kentucky. “I think he needs to quit tweeting and quit responding to personal attacks from the media and celebrities. He just needs to tweet about what he is doing for the country.

To me, he is very immature, but performance-wise, he’s doing a great job.” Lucinda and others have a list of what they see as the president’s accomplishments: more than 2 million jobs created, the elimination of unnecessary regulations, reduced illegal immigration, the decline in the threat of ISIS, and the renegotiation of unfair trade agreements.

Adds Britta from Michigan, “Whenever we are appalled about Trump’s sexual misconduct, let’s remember that he is not the first sexual predator to occupy the Oval Office.”

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Martin goes to church

“Father, I am all confused and scared.”

Father: “Why Martin, what’s going on?”

Martin: “My wife is trying to kill me. She is giving me poison.”

Father: “That can’t be true. You are imagining things. However, if it gives you any solace, I will talk to your wife. We will find the truth. Come see me next Sunday after Mass.”

Father: “Well now Martin, I spoke to your wife for more than five hours. You want to hear my conclusion?”

Martin: “Yes father.”

Father: “Take the poison.”

HarryNewton
Harry Newton, who will write more on Zuckerberg’s presentation today. For now, I’m super impressed. I sold out of FB at roughly where it is today. I was wrong. I panicked. I’m getting back in. Nothing I heard yesterday has detracted from my belief hat Facebook is, and remains an incredibly powerful advertising medium — better in many respects than Google. Understand Facebook is not a social media platform. It’s a place to place advertising. And advertising on Facebook works! Trust me on that one. Buy FB stock. More tomorrow.

  • TomFromVa

    The comments in the article above are what makes American democracy work. The people quoted show far more sense than 99% of the “mainstream” press.

    Regarding Bruno’s comment below, my response is BS. If you lived through the 50s and 60s you know what real racism is. Today racism is not a condition, it is an industry. Racism is as low as it is going to get and it is equal on both black and white sides – so it is time to move on. Equality of opportunity is all that is required and that is available to anyone who is willing to take advantage of it. It is not the system’s fault if individuals reject education, work, family, and respect for the law. That is on them and it is not a race thing – it pertains to members of all races and groups.

  • gerryb

    from a post by Doug kass today:
    No One Puts Trump in the Corner!
    APR 12, 2018 | 11:17 AM EDT
    “No one puts baby in the corner.”
    – Dirty Dancing

    I know someone who was in a key meeting with President Trump on Tuesday.

    According to my contact, Trump was very distracted, stressed, angry, unfocused. He is not handling the Mueller and other goings on very well – as demonstrated by his tweets.

    If the market really knew what was really going on and was aware of the internal chaos in the White House I can’t imagine Mr. Market would be trading up like it is today.

    From my perch, there is some chance that the poison gas attack was not carried out by Syria, and while I would be happy to see Assad and his regime wiped off the map, I think this may be a trap for the US that could lead to conflict with Russia.

    The best thing for Trump to do is nothing but he backed himself into a corner.

    And the best thing for me to do is to be small net short.

    Position: None

  • Chuck

    Wait until after the missiles fly, then buy the SPY Dip..,.

  • Lucky

    While Trump is tweeting out little things that keep the press in a turmoil…that is what keeps the naysayers minds on piddling things all the while Trump is making you richer and getting other countries in line with real life. Time will not only tell…it is already calling out success! Give him some space…he will persevere!

  • KC Chuck

    Cash is king in my book now

  • Jerry

    Harry, I love the look of your site. WAs this done on Word Press? Who designed it? Also, what do you know about advertising on Facebook? First hand experience?

  • bruuno

    Thanks for the Hessan article, Harry.
    What is most salient about the piece and the people’s perspectives is that it is rooted in bias, opinions, and mindsets that exist and are not to be dismissed, but that ultimately are based on tribal bias and little reality. It’s not a bad thing that people “feel” better and safer and hopeful, but eventually it all has to be connected to a larger reality beyond tribal sentiment.
    And let’s not forget that in this nation and its history that tribal lifeblood is largely rooted in racism.
    And let’s not gloss over, like many voices glibly rationalize with the “he’s not a saint, but…”, nonsense that what we have is a Christian majority, adept at quoting chapter and verse, a majority that has literally sold its soul in a devil’s bargain. And that’s not hyperbole.