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8:30 AM EST, Monday, April 30: This is brilliant. It comes from a late-2006 quarterly report of an impressive fund whose name I'll tell you tomorrow (if they allow me). It sums up their philosophy (and mine also). Read and enjoy:

As always, the world continues to offer enough variety to support both pessimistic and optimistic views. Most recently, the pessimists have focused on the violent and ongoing reorganization of a geographic region most recently called "Iraq"; ongoing North Korean provocations; congressional sex scandals; a decline in US housing activity; the Amaranth implosion; global warming; and many other real or media-ntensified events.

Optimists have to work a bit harder to feed their enthusiasm, as many of the existing advantages enjoyed by the developed world (and increasingly, by the fast-growing developing world) are taken for granted and rarely highlighted in the prevailing 24-hour media cycle. Trends like expanding global trade, longer life expectancies, more leisure time, the spread of democracy, and reductions in urban crime often occur in a non-spectacular way. However underreported and overlooked these social and economic developments may be, optimists point out that, on a relative basis, the current era marks one of the most benign in recent history.

In support of this view, we would point you to Niall Ferguson's bestselling book, The War of the World: History's Age of Hatred, in which he contrasts how fortunate we've been over the last few decades compared to the atrocities humans initiated, and suffered, over most of the 20th Century, including both World Wars; genocides in Russia, Cambodia, Armenia, and Nazi occupied Europe; and a slew of ancillary wars fought in regional theaters. In addition, the rate of technological breakthrough continues accelerating as new discoveries frequently are a direct function of previous work, and the pyramid for future research broadens and deepens. Generally speaking, we view the long-term effects of the spread of capitalism and democracy as positive for the globe, but especially for the most skilled practitioners here in the United States. As mentioned previously, we believe that the rate of technological breakthrough is accelerating -- the power of compounding -- providing global citizens better access to information, and hence empowerment. It's far from a perfect world, and the march towards wholesale social betterment will not be without interruptions, but we are optimists when it comes to the human race, and hence, the investment environment.

The Toyota Tundra appears: I'm at my construction site, also called our family's potential new house. It's always been a parking lot for Ford and GM trucks, mostly Ford of the F-series, which are the biggest-selling truck, with over 750,000 sold last year. The F-series is keeping Ford semi-afloat, a polite term for the mess it's in.

Anyway, a Toyota Tundra suddenly appears, an alien species. I beetle over to the owner. Why? Two reasons she tells me: "Toyotas last forever. It has some really cool features." I go on Toyota's web site. Even I'm impressed. And what do I know about things like "tailgate assist" or an "integrated towing hitch receiver"? But I do love the backup camera. Makes connecting to a trailer by yourself real easy. I read somewhere that before they built the latest Tundra, they had a team of engineers visit trucker owners all over the country, study their lives and ask them what they'd really like in a truck. This is such a change from the arrogance of most car makers. I remember asking the lead salesman at Mercedes' Manhattan showroom if the company had ever asked him what his thousands of customers had said or complained about their cars? He replied, "No. They never listen." He recommended that I not bother writing my list of suggestions, like decent cupholders.

As to buying or selling car stocks -- I have zero clue. Toyota is down to $122 from a peak of $138 in March. GM is down to $31.50 from a peak in February of $37. Ford is $8, slowly dropping. I think Toyota will be higher and both GM and Ford will be lower. But I'm not gambling with these companies. As John Maynard Keynes, the economist who made a fortune in the market, said:

The (stock)market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

"Oh," says the woman, "I'm from Andromeda, in what you call 'outer space'." "Andromeda?!" says the man, "Wow! Do all the women on Andromeda have green skin like you?"

"Yes," replies the woman, "everyone is green on Andromeda."

The man continues to stare and speak. "Excuse me for asking, but I can't help noticing that you have 12 toes on each foot. Here on Earth we all have five toes on each foot. Do all Andromedans have 12 toes on each foot?"

"Yes, they do," replies the woman.

"Please, may I ask you one more question?"

The woman nods. "I also can't help noticing that on each of your hands you have seven fingers, and on each finger is a very large diamond. Here on Earth, diamonds are very rare and valuable. Do all Andromedan women have large diamonds on their fingers?"

"Well, no," the woman answers, "not the shiksas."


This column is about my personal search for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address is . You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing the Google ads. Thus I cannot endorse any, though some look mighty interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Claire's law school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click here and here.
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