Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
8:30 AM Thursday, January 13, 2005:
After another day in depositions, I'm about as exhausted as I've ever been. Depositions
are done so there are "no surprises in court," as one lawyer explained.
Whatever the reason, they sure make the process of suing someone extremely expensive.
named Sonus Networks (SONS) a Top Pick for 2005." Firm sees attractive
valuation and 35% upside potential at only 18x their 2006 EPS estimate of $0.30.
Firm believes growth over the next few years should be above 20%. They cite
the following positive key points: 1) Additional partnerships with major equipment
vendors who lack key parts of the VoIP (Voice Over Internet Protocol) product
line; 2) Market demand improvement as cable vendors expand their VoIP services
push, adding pressure for incumbents to step up the pace for VoIP deployments
and capabilities; and 3) Expected new customer momentum.
When I saw this "top pick," I thought: What investment banking business
are they pitching Sonus? A takeover? Money-raising? Some companies to buy? and
then I thought, "Why am I incapable of simply accepting their pick as genuine?
Do I now immediately regard everything Wall Street does with suspicion? Have
I become that jaded? I read a little on them last night. I don't see Sonus as
the stock to make anyone rich beyond their wildest dreams in 2005. I pass it
on this morning. Maybe someone out there knows more?
I've missed two
days of the Needham & Company Growth Conference with my depositions. This
is the best small company conference of the year. Some of the presentations
will still be on line. I'll check and let you know. I hope to get a few minutes
to go there today. Here's the list of presenters. Click
I knew about the strong demand for iPods, but I have been concerned about Apple's
stock being way overpriced. I was wrong. It's going through the roof this morning
after a fourfold increase in profits on a 74% sales surge. Nice job, Jobs.
I don't like the huge increase in the U.S. trade deficit and the weakening dollar.
We can't continue to do this forever.
Chart from the Wall Street Journal.
The Journal says the big trade deficit "sowed some doubt about
whether the drop in the value of the dollar during the past year can be expected
to cure the trade imbalance. .. Today's release ... continues to confound the
'experts' who have constantly predicted that a weaker dollar would be the cure
for America's exploding trade imbalance," said Peter Schiff, president
of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. in Newport Beach, Calif. "If anything, the
statistical record is showing an inverse relationship between the dollar and
the deficit: The more the dollar falls, the higher the deficit goes."
I worry about
a 1987 type-crisis, with a major overnight drop in share prices and a further
plunge in the value of the dollar. I worry that only a crisis will "solve"
this problem. I wonder if stockmarkets are not reflecting that worry in their
I'll be less tired tomorrow. End of depositions for now.
Predictions. But this time for the year 2025
minorities still trying to have English recognized as California's third language.
+ Baby conceived naturally ... Scientists stumped.
+ Couple petitions court to reinstate heterosexual marriage.
+ Last remaining Fundamentalist Muslim dies in the American Territory of the
Middle East (formerly known as Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon).
+ France pleads for global help after being invaded by Jamaica.
+ Castro finally dies at age 112; Cuban cigars can now be imported legally,
but President Chelsea Clinton has banned all smoking.
+ 35 year study: Diet and Exercise is the key to weight loss.
+ Average weight of Americans drops to 250 lbs.
+ Supreme Court rules punishment of criminals violates their civil rights.
+ Average height of NBA players now nine feet, seven inches.
+ IRS sets lowest tax rate at 75%.
+ Florida Democrats still don't know how to use a voting machine.
Two old guys are pushing their carts around Wal-Mart when they collide
The first old guy says to the second guy, "Sorry about that. I'm looking
for my wife, and I guess I wasn't paying attention to where I was going."
The second old
guy says, "That's OK. It's a coincidence. I'm looking for my wife, too,
and I can't find her and I'm getting a little desperate."
The first old
guy says, "Well, maybe I can help you find her. What does she look like?"
The second old
guy says, "Well, she is 27 years old, tall with red hair, blue eyes, long
legs, large firm breasts, and a tight butt wearing short shorts. What does your
wife look like?"
To which the first
old guy says, "Never mind; let's look for yours."