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8:30 AM Friday, January 20, 2006: You've got kiss a lot of frogs. That is the nature of investing (and love). Kissing frogs is time wasting, frustrating and difficult. You have to aggressively find the frogs and then just as aggressively run from them. Two days ago I ran away from The Great Publisher of the Western World. His disaster (which my money was to save) gave snakepit a whole new meaning.



Yet last night, I found something that kept me awake mulling all the potentials and possibilities. An idea for the next Google! If I told you, I'd have to kill you. When I told Michael, my son, he ho-hummed the idea and opined his father had, once again, flipped his lid -- this time for real.

The adrenaline rush on finding what I felt was The Next Google was worth the kissing and my son's skepticism.

I reject 99% of the ideas I have, see or are approached with. Hence my next lecture about learning to say the hardest word in the English language -- NO. I've even written a Word Auto-Text called "No Thanks." It reads

As regards your PowerPoint, it's a great presentation.
It's a great idea and a great accomplishment that you've brought the idea along so far.
I'm sure you'll succeed beyond your wildest expectations.
For now, a XXXX (fill in the blanks) doesn't fit my present investing horizon.
Thanks for thinking of me.
Keep thinking of me. My horizon is always changing.

Look at the numbers again. My very successful real estate syndicator reported that in 2005, he reviewed 512 potential acquisitions, bid on 120 and acquired only seven. That's a success rate of 1.37%. Essentially, he looks at 100 to find one. I bet the odds on a successful marriage are even less.

When I look at these odds, I feel less guilty about the fact that I don't ladle my column with Picks du Jour. Cramer does. The beast's nature means he gets as many right as wrong. But if you're selective, slow and recognize the value of rejection -- of saying NO -- presumably you'll get it right a little more often.

I got it right with InSite Vision, VistaPrint and Whole Foods. TriPath Imaging is finally coming back.

I recently bought a little Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and El Paso Corporation (EP). They seem to be moving in the right direction. For now, I screwed up with my Vanguard international funds -- Total International Stock Index (VGTSX), Emerging Markets Stock Index (VEIEX) and the Pacific Stock Index (VPADX). They got caught up in the Japanese stockmarket downdraft of this week. I suspect that these funds may now be a bargain. Japan is definitely coming back. And the events of this week had nothing to with fundamentals. Just short-term panic.

The Greater Fool Theory
The theory says it is possible to make money by buying securities, whether overvalued or not, and later selling them at a profit because there will always be someone (a bigger fool) who is willing to pay the higher price. Howie Mount, a reader, asks surely the Manhattan office building boom is the epitome of the Greater Fool Theory?

I can't answer that. See my columns on the total impossibility of predicting anything, including what happened this week in Japan, if the FDA approves any of my drug companies' drugs or where I'm having dinner this evening. The answer is you make your best guess, diversify your investments and pray.

My friend Dan Good believes that my commodities fund won't repeat last year's excellent 26% appreciation. He believes commodities won't rise another 26% from where they are today -- very highly priced. Another friend told me that I can't go wrong buying the things China is buying.

I agree with Dan. I don't think we'll get another 26% in 2006. But I think we'll get 15%. I'm happy with 15%. I do not see the demand for commodities -- from oil to iron ore, from cotton to sugar, from copper to aluminum -- ebbing. I'll get my 15%.

Oil rose above $67 last night. I've seen predictions it's going to $300. So there, Dan!

We bumble along, kissing frogs, savoring the pleasures and displeasures..

Latest health tip for males: I have no idea if this research is real. Nor do I care. I like the conclusion.

The funniest video. If you missed watching yesterday's video, do it NOW. Click here.

Classroom logic revisited:
The teacher asks her class, "If there are five birds sitting on a fence and you shoot one of them, how many will be left?" She calls on Brooklyn Tony.
He replies, "None, they will all fly away with the first gunshot."
The teacher replies, "The correct answer is four, but I like your thinking."
Then Brooklyn Tony says, "I have a question for YOU. There are three women sitting on a bench having ice cream: One is delicately licking the sides of the triple scoop of ice cream. The second is gobbling down the top and sucking the cone. The third is biting off the top of the ice cream. Which one is married?"
The teacher, blushing, replied, "Well, I suppose the one that's gobbled down the top and sucked the cone."
Brooklyn Tony replied, "The correct answer is the one with the wedding ring, but I do like your thinking.

No sense of humor!
My wife and I are watching "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire" one night in bed.
I turned to her and said, "Do you want to have sex?"
"No." She answered.
I then said, "Is that your final answer?"
"Yes." She replied.
Then I said, " I'd like to phone a friend."
That's the last thing I remember.

Harry Newton

This column is about my personal search for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address is . You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing the Google ads. Thus I cannot endorse any, though some look mighty interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Claire's law school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click here and here.
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