A woman feeds the birds in Hull, MA after a big snowfall.

What will all of us do today to feed the birds?

So where for the stockmarket in 2005? This comes from respected Don Hahn economist/analyst of Mesirow Financial: "Determining the market outlook this year is even more difficult than usual, especially in comparison to 2003 and 2004 when there was a preponderance of bullish evidence. ... We think stock prices may advance for a third straight year, but the odds are only 55/45. Our indecisiveness involves timing. In aggregate the monetary/economic and internal supply/demand indicators, although currently satisfactory, are in the process of transitioning from strong to weak. In all likelihood, the price averages will continue to trend higher until these measures exhibit additional deterioration. If so, the market might perform well for part of the year, with the Dow moving above 11,000. ...

This mildly optimistic outlook is, however, restrained by several considerations. First, as was true a year-ago, the secondary trend gauges were feeble as 2005 commenced. Last year this condition was eventually adjusted by an extended period of sideward-to-moderately lower prices. We would be surprised if the same relatively painless corrective process occurs again in 2005. Second, the presidential election cycle has now entered a period when the stock market has historically proven to be its most vulnerable. ... Third, as noted in our December report (2005 Preview), SMC expects combined 2005-2006 equity returns to be only slightly positive or even negative This implies that sometime during the coming two years a traditional bear cycle will unfold. By our definition, this would consist of a minimum 15% to 20% setback lasting at least several months In summary, SMC is currently “warily bullish.” Dark clouds are visible on the horizon, but the storm does not yet appear imminent. Our advice to portfolio managers under these conditions is to become increasingly selective, emphasize quality issues, not be reluctant to book profits and, above all, not get caught up in the bullish hype that will be widespread when the market is in an advancing stage."

I eat humble pie: Apollo Investment (AINV) hit $17. When it first came out, I panned it. What it lacked in investments, it more than made up for in 6% sales charges (or $58 million).. But Apollo got its act together, invested its billion dollars or so... and started making some money. On August 9, it closed at $13.15. On August 10, I wrote, "I wouldn't touch this stock for all the money in China." I was wrong. That was its low. ... And isn't that the point of investing? A stock you hate at one price ($15) is worth buying at $13.15.


How Apollo moved since its IPO last Spring.

Yet another Nigerian scam: This email came in yesterday. It's another Nigerian scam.
"MY DEAR,
I AM THE STAFF OF ECO BANK OF NIGERIA .I HAPPEN TO BE AN ACCOUNTING OFFICER TO ONE OF OUR GOOD CUSTOMERS IN THE BANK WHO DEPOSITED THE SUM OF US$12.5M WITH OUR BANK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS CLIENT DR. MOHAMMED GALAL,WHO WAS AMONG THE VICTIMS OF EGYPT AIR BOEING 767.FLIGHT NO 990 THAT CRASHED ON THE 2/11/1999 IN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.www.cnn.com/US/9911/02/egyptair990.list
SINCE THEN, I HAVE MADE SEVERAL ENQUIRIES TO THEIR EMBASSY HERE TO LOCATE ANY OF HIS EXTENDED RELATIVES, BUT TO NO AVAIL, AFTER ALL THESE UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPTS TO LOCATE HIS RELATIVES.
I DECIDED TO GATHER ALL HIS RELEVANT BIODATAS AND ALSO KEPT HIS FILE IN AN EXCLUSIVE VAULT FOR REFERENCE PURPOSES HAVING MONITORED AND MANAGED HIS DEPOSIT OVER YEARS BEFORE HIS DEATH.
THIS FUND HAS ALMOST REACHED A POINT WHERE THE BANK MIGHT DECIDE ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE FUNDS AS UNSERVICED ACCOUNT. HENCE MY DECISION TO CONTACT YOU FOR TWO MAIN REASONS, (1)TO ASSIST IN REPATRIATING THE SUM OF $12.5M LEFT BEHIND BY MY CLIENT BEFORE IT GETS CONFISCATED OR DECLARED UNSERVICEABLE BY THE MANAGEMENT OF INTERNATIONAL BANK.
(2)I HAVE ALSO CONTACTED YOU TO ACT AS A RELATIVE(NEXT OF KIN)TO THE DESEASED AND APPLY FOR THE RELEASE OF THE MONEY TO ANY ACCOUNT YOU MAY PROVIDE SINCE THE BANK HAS BEEN EXPECTING THE NEXT OF KIN OF THE DESEASED TO COME FORWARD FOR THE MONEY LEFT BEHIND BY THE DESEASED.
BE ASSURED ONCE AGAIN.THAT SINCE I AM AT THE BACKGROUND AND HAVE ALL THE BASIC INFORMATION REQUIRED TO BACK UP THE CLAIM,THE PROCEEDS OF THE DESEASED ACCOUNT WILL BE TRANSFERED INTO YOUR NOMINATED BANK ACCOUNT THEN I AND YOU WILL SHARE THE MONEY BASED ON OUR MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING AND AGREEMENT.
AS YOU INDICATE YOUR DEVOTED WILLINGNESS TO ASSIST IN THIS DIMENSION, SEND ME YOUR DIRECT TELEPHONE AND FAX NUMBER FOR EASY COMMUNICATION AND CONTACT ME ON Private Email: princebukejohnson3@yahoo.com THANKS FOR YOUR COOPERATION, YOURS FAITHFULLY, MR.BUKE JOHNSON"

The Third World War
At the Russian War College, a general is a guest lecturer and tells the class of officers that the session will focus on potential problems and the resulting strategies.
One of the officers in the class begins by asking the first question, "Will we have to fight in a World War Three?"
"Yes, comrades, it looks like you will," answers the general.
"And who will be our enemy, Comrade General?" another officer asks.
"The likelihood is that it will be China."
The class is surprised, and finally one officer asks, "But Comrade General, we are 150 million people and they are about 1.5 billion. How can we possibly win?"
"Well," replies the general, "Think about it. In modern war, it is not the quantity, but the quality that is the key. For example, in the Middle East, 5 million Jews have been fighting against 300 million Arabs, and the Jews have been the winners every time."
"But sir," asks the panicky officer, "Do we have enough Jews?"

Harry Newton

This column is about my personal search for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address is . You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing the Google ads. Thus I cannot endorse any, though some look mighty interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. That money will help pay Claire's law school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click here and here.
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