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Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.

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8:30 AM Monday, March 13, 2006: Suck it up. That's all you can when one of your managers buy you stocks you wouldn't touch with a ten-foot pole. Private Capital Management put too much of my money into newspaper stocks. At that point they had two choices: sell the stocks at a loss or get aggressive and sell the entire company. They tried for the latter. They bought me a bunch of Knight Ridder for $71.13. This morning we'll hear how Knight Ridder is being sold for $67.50 to another newspaper group called McClatchy. That $67.50, while still at a loss, is a lot better than the $52 Knight Ridder hit back in November. In short, suck it up and hope they do better elsewhere, now they're less distracted.

A few BIG decisions determine the quality of your life: They are:
1. Who you marry.
2. How long you stay together in a bad marriage.
3. If you have children in a bad marriage.
4. If you get a job or become an entrepreneur.
5. How long you take to undo your bad decisions, i.e. your mistakes.

In recent weeks, I've had lunch with several old, old friends and I've asked "how it's gone." I've heard horrible stories of marriages broken after 35 years, of retirement nest eggs destroyed by divorce and outrageous lawyers' fees.... Yet, in all cases, my friends knew the mess they were in from early on -- but inertia, children and career obsession delayed the inevitable breakup, making it more painful, emotionally and financially.

Cockroach stock: Nortel said it uncovered more accounting mistakes and will restate financial results going back at least three years. The company also posted a $2.21 billion loss for the fourth quarter. I instance this not because I own Nortel, but because there's a critical lesson here. When a company reports its first accounting irregularity, you know it's a Cockroach Stock and time to get out immediately -- if not sooner.

Another cockroach stock: A little-known federal agency charged with protecting patients in medical research has expressed ethical concerns about a study of a Northfield Laboratories blood substitute being given to hundreds of trauma patients without their consent.

GM Cockroaches emerging again and again: General Motors Corp. is recalling another group of its best-selling pickups to fix tailgate cables that may break and cause injuries, bringing the number of U.S. vehicles recalled for the problem to an incredible 4.47 million.

Cheap ways of calling overseas:
The cheapest way to call overseas is to use your VoIP line. Most calls to most places are free. But, if you must pay, buy yourself a calling card from CallingCArdPlus.com. Buy the minimum because the cards expire quickly. It's easy to buy more of them.

Google Alerts are great for watching stocks: They're free. Go here.

What you can do to avoid the Avian Flu. No one knows how bad it will be. But it's definitely coming.
+ Don't touch blood, body fluids, secretions, excretions and other potentially contaminated items
+ Wash with either plain or anti-microbial soap and water or use alcohol-based products (gels, rinses or foams) that contain an emollient and do not need water.
+ Don't touch your eyes, nose, mouth, or exposed skin with contaminated hands.
+ Don't touch doorknobs and light switches.
+ Make sure building ventilation systems are well maintained to protect people inside from airborne threats.

Stock up with enough nonperishable and prepackaged food products to last four weeks. Supplies should include bottled water, canned meats, fruits, vegetables, soups, protein or fruit bars, dry cereal, granola and fruit bars, crackers, peanut butter or nuts, canned juices, canned or jarred baby food and formula, and pet food. Stockpile prescription drugs (keep them in your refrigerator) soap and water or alcohol-based hand wash, anti-diarrheal medication and fluids with electrolytes and vitamins.

Harry Browne wrote a lot of bad financial books -- including How You Can Profit from the Coming Devaluation. But he's now dead and it's worth revisiting his 16 Golden Rules for Financial Safety, which actually make sense:

Rule #1: Your career provides your wealth. You most likely will make far more money from your business or profession than from your investments. Only very rarely does someone make a large fortune from investments. Your investments can make your future more secure and your retirement more prosperous. But they can't take you from rags to riches. So don't take risks with complicated schemes in the hope of multiplying your capital quickly. Your investment plan should be aimed, first and foremost, at preserving what you have -- preserving it from investment loss, government intervention, or mismanagement.

Rule #2: Don't assume you can replace your wealth. The fact that you earned what you have doesn't mean that you could earn it again if you lost it. Markets and opportunities change, technology changes, laws change. Conditions today may be considerably different from what they were when you built the estate you have now.

Rule #3: Recognize the difference between investing and speculating. When you invest, you accept the return the markets are paying investors in general. When you speculate, you attempt to beat that return — to do better than other investors are doing — through astute timing, forecasting, or stock selection, and with the implied belief that you're smarter than most other investors. There's nothing wrong with speculating— provided you do it with money you can afford to lose. But the money that's precious to you shouldn't be risked on a bet that you can outperform other investors.

Rule #4: No one can predict the future. Events in the investment markets result from the decisions of millions of different people. Investment advisors have no more ability to predict the future actions of human beings than psychics and fortune-tellers do. And so events never unfold as we were so sure they would.

Rule #5: No one can move you in and out of investments consistently with precise and profitable timing. You'll hear about many Wall Street wizards, but the investment advisor with the perfect record up to now most likely will lose his touch the moment you start acting on his advice.

Rule #6: No trading system will work as well in the future as it did in the past. You'll come across many trading systems or indicators that seem always to have signaled correctly where your money should have been, but somehow the systems never come through when your money is on the line.

Rule #7: Don't use leverage. When someone goes completely broke, it's almost always because he used borrowed money. In many cases, the individual was already quite rich, but he wanted to pyramid his fortune with borrowed money. Using margin accounts or mortgages (for other than your home) puts you at risk to lose more than your original investment. If you handle all your investments on a cash basis, it's virtually impossible to lose everything—no matter what might happen in the world.

Rule #8: Don't let anyone make your decisions. Many people lost their fortunes because they gave someone (a financial advisor or attorney) the authority to make their decisions and handle their money. The advisor may have taken too many chances, been dishonest, or simply incompetent. But, most of all, no advisor can be expected to treat your money with the same respect you do. You don't need a money manager. Investing is complicated and difficult to understand only if you're trying to beat the market. You can preserve what you have with only a minimum understanding of investing. You can set up a worry-proof portfolio for yourself in one day — and then you need only one day a year to monitor it. Allowing the smartest person in the world to make your decisions for you isn't nearly as safe as setting up a safe portfolio for yourself. Above, all, never give anyone signature authority over money that's precious to you. If you should put money into an account for someone else to manage, it must be money you can afford to lose.

Rule #9: Don't ever do anything you don't understand. Don't undertake any investment, speculation, or investment program that you don't understand. If you do, you may later discover risks you weren't aware of. Or your losses might turn out to be greater than the amount you invested. It's better to leave your money in Treasury bills than to take chances with investments you don't fully comprehend. It doesn't matter that your brother-in-law, your best friend, or your favorite investment advisor understands some money-making scheme. It isn't his money at risk. If you don't understand it, don't do it.

Rule #10: Don't depend on any one investment, institution, or person for your safety. Every investment has its time in the sun—and its moment of shame. Precious metals ruled the roost in the 1970s while stocks and bonds were in disgrace. But then gold and silver became the losers of the 1980s and 1990s, while stocks and bonds multiplied their value. No one investment is good for all times. Even Treasury bills can lose real value during times of inflation. And you can't rely on any single institution to protect your wealth for you. Old-line banks have failed and pension funds have folded. The company you think will keep your wealth safe might not be there when you're ready to withdraw your life savings. We live in an uncertain world, and surprises are the norm. You shouldn't risk the chance that a single surprise will wipe out a large part of your holdings.

Rule #11: Create a bulletproof portfolio for protection. For the money you need to take care of you for the rest of your life, set up a simple, balanced, diversified portfolio. I call this a "Permanent Portfolio" because once you set it up, you never need to rearrange the investment mix — even if your outlook for the future changes. The portfolio should assure that your wealth will survive any event — including an event that would be devastating to any individual element within the portfolio. In other words, this portfolio should protect you no matter what the future brings. It isn't difficult or complicated to have such a portfolio this safe. You can achieve a great deal of diversification with a surprisingly simple portfolio.

Rule #12: Speculate only with money you can afford to lose. If you want to try to beat the market, set up a second — separate — portfolio with which you can speculate to your heart's content. But make sure this portfolio contains no more of your wealth than you can afford to lose. I call this second pool of money a "Variable Portfolio" because its investments will vary as your outlook for the future changes. It might be all or part in stocks or gold or something else — whatever looks good at any time — or just in cash. You can take chances with the Variable Portfolio because you know that, whatever happens, no loss can be devastating. You can lose only the money you've already decided isn't precious to you.

Rule #13: Keep some assets outside the country in which you live. Don't allow everything you own to be where your government can touch it. By having something outside the reach of your government, you'll be less vulnerable — and you'll feel less vulnerable. You'll no longer have to worry so much about what the government will do next. For example, maintaining a foreign bank account is quite simple; it's little different from having a mail or Internet account with an American bank or broker.

Rule #14: Beware of tax-avoidance schemes. Tax rates are still low enough in the US that you might gain very little from the risk and effort of constructing elaborate tax shelters. And a great deal of money has been lost by people who hoped to beat the tax system. The losses came from investments that provided special tax advantages but didn't make economic sense, and from tax shelters that were disallowed by the IRS — incurring penalties and interest on top of the liabilities. There are a number of simple ways available to minimize taxes—through such things as IRAs and 401(k) plans. These plans are effective but non-controversial. They won't come back to haunt you.

Rule #15: Enjoy yourself with a budget for pleasure. Your wealth is of no value if you can't enjoy it. But it's easy to spend too much while the money's flowing in. To enjoy your wealth, establish a budget of money that you can spend yearly without concern. If you stay within that amount, you can feel free to blow the money on cars, trips, anything you want — knowing that you aren't blowing your future.

Rule #16: Whenever you're in doubt about a course of action, it is always better to err on the side of safety. If you pass up an opportunity to increase your fortune, another one will be along soon enough. But if you lose your life savings just once, you might never get a chance to replace it.

The rules of safe investing are little different from the rules of life: recognize that you live in an uncertain world, don't expect the impossible, and don't trust strangers. If you apply to your investments the same realistic attitude that produced your present wealth, you needn't fear that you'll ever go broke.

Don't waste your time seeing MatchPoint, the movie:

It is both tasteless and offensive. A poor man inveigles his way into a rich family, marries the boss's daughter, secures good job from daddy, has an affair he shouldn't have, kills his lover who gets pregnant and ultimately gets away with the crime -- but ends up as a very unhappy, though rich, camper. P.S. The star is a good actor, but a lousy tennis player -- though he's meant to have been a pro. Hence the name of the move -- Match Point.

The Pacific Life Open / Indian Wells Tennis Tournament continues.

ESPN2

Date

Start Time (PST)

 

 

Mon, March 13

11:00am

Live

Early Round Coverage

Mon, March 13

7:00pm

Live

Early Round Coverage

Tue, March 14

1:00pm

Live

Early Round Coverage

Tue, March 14

8:30pm

Live

Early Round Coverage

Wed, March 15

11:00am

Live

Women's Quarterfinal
Men's 4th Round

Wed, March 15

9:00pm

Live

Women's Quarterfinal
Men's 4th Round

Thu, March 16

11:00am

Live

Women's Quarterfinal
Men's Quarterfinal

Thu, March 16

7:00pm

Live

Women's Quarterfinal
Men's Quarterfinal

Fri, March 17

11:00am

Live

Women's Semifinals
Men's Quarterfinal

Fri, March 17

7:00pm

Live

Men's Quarterfinal

Sat, March 18

2:30pm

Live

Women's Final

Sun, March 19

11:30pm

Delay

Men's Semifinal

Sun, March 19

11:00am

Live

Men's Final


Fine dining
A man and woman were having dinner in a fine restaurant. Their waitress, taking another order at a table a few steps away, suddenly noticed that the man was slowly sliding down his chair and under the table, but the woman acted unconcerned.

The waitress watched as the man slid all the way down his chair and out of sight under the table. Still, the woman dining across from him appeared calm and unruffled, apparently unaware that her dining companion had disappeared.

After the waitress finished taking the order, she came over to the table and said to the woman, "Pardon me, ma'am, but I think your husband just slid under the table."

The woman calmly looked up at her and said, "No, he didn't. He just walked in the door."


Harry Newton


This column is about my personal search for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address is . You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing the Google ads. Thus I cannot endorse any, though some look mighty interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Claire's law school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click here and here.
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