Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Technology Investor. Harry Newton
9:00 AM EST, Friday, March 13, 2009. Nice
bounce in the last few days:
To me, it's
a bounce in a bear market -- an expected bounce, given the relentless pounding
of January and February. The bounce caused the Wall Street Journal to pontificate
this morning. Before you read it, please remember that no one has ever had
a clue on why the market moves up, down or sideways. Whatever reporters write
is whatever pops into their brain. This reporter is no different. From the
See a Glimmer and Shares Soar Worldwide
A few clues that the economys downward spiral might be slowing
galvanized Wall Street on Thursday and sent world stock markets soaring
for the second time this week.
searching for relief from a relentless march of bad economic news found
wisps of hope in developments that, not many months ago, would have been
regarded as alarming. The news, by and large, was bad just not
quite as bad as feared.
the blue-chip corporation, was stripped of its triple-A credit rating, an
emblem of business prowess it proudly held since 1956. But its rating fell
just one notch, less than some analysts predicted. Shares of G.E. soared
Department reported that retail sales fell slightly in February again,
less than forecast. And the head of the beleaguered Bank of America said
the lender probably would not need more government money, but other banks
Less bad was
good enough. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 239.66 points, or 3.46
percent, to 7,170.06. The Standard & Poors 500-stock index leaped
29.38 points, or 4.07 percent, to 750.74. The gains rippled over to Asian
markets, with Japans Nikkei 225 index rising more than 5 percent Friday,
two days after that market posted a 4.6 gain for its biggest jump in six
weeks. Hong Kongs benchmark gained more than 3.5 percent. Those gains
were replicated later by European markets, with most major European exchanges
up more than 2.1 percent in afternoon trading.
when the Dow fell to its lowest point in 12 years, indexes have soared
roughly 10 percent, their best run since November. But few experts were
willing to call an end to the bear market, which has cut the Dow in half
since its October 2007 peak. Indeed, many analysts predicted that this
rally, like others before it, will fizzle before the market stages a lasting
recovery. Economists cautioned that the economy was not about to turn a
corner anytime soon, even though the numbers suggested that consumers were
not entirely in a bunker mentality.
But some saw
signs of a subtle shift in investor psychology, a willingness to
believe, even for a few days, that Wall Streets worst fears might
the markets have been battered as much as they have, any little shred of
positive news is greeted with great cheer," said Marc D. Stern, chief
investment officer at Bessemer Trust.
market, Mr. Stern said, seems to be entering a new phase, in which investors
reconsider their despairing views about the economy and corporate profits.
He said the market could fall again, though he did not expect as many sharp
free falls. Usually the stock market starts trending higher before
the economy recovers. ...
were bolstered after Kenneth D. Lewis, the chief executive of Bank of America,
said the bank had made a profit in the first two months of the year and
predicted that it would be profitable for all of 2009. His remarks came
after similarly optimistic statements this week by Citigroup and JPMorgan
of the governments rescue programs are starting to work thats
what were seeing, said Edward Yardeni, an independent investment
strategist. There are some substantial developments behind this rally
that are encouraging. ...
specialists said the incipient rally is reminiscent of the aborted upturn
that began in mid-November after stocks had tumbled to their lowest level
in 11 years. The S.& P. 500 climbed 24 percent from Nov. 20 to Jan.
6 before it fell in the last two months.
say history shows that the strongest stockmarket rallies take place amid
bear markets as investors search for any sign of good news. But those rallies
generally fade, as it becomes clear that economic difficulties will persist
for longer than many had hoped for.
industries in the roaring twenties: What
causes booms? New industries. What will our new industries be going forward?
Alternative energy? Biotech? I don't think so. From Wikipedia:
made technology affordable to the middle class. Many of the devices that
became commonplace had been developed before the war but had been unaffordable
to most people. The automobile, movie, radio, and chemical industries skyrocketed
during the 1920s. Of chief importance was the automobile industry. Before
the war, cars were a luxury. In the 1920s, mass-produced vehicles became
common throughout the U.S. and Canada. By 1927, Henry Ford had sold 15 million
Model Ts. Only about 300,000 vehicles were registered in 1918 in all of
Canada, but by 1929, there were 1.9 million. The automobile industry's effects
were widespread, contributing to such disparate economic pursuits as gas
stations, motels, and the oil industry.
the first mass broadcasting medium. Radios were affordable, and their mode
of entertainment proved revolutionary. Radio became the grandstand for mass
marketing. Its economic importance led to the mass culture that has dominated
society since. During the "golden age of radio", radio programming
was as varied as TV programming today. The 1927 establishment of the Federal
Radio Commission introduced a new era of regulation.
was such a delicious business. Being a spec developer. While it
lasted. From this week's La Quinta Sun:
wonder if this will succeed? From reader, Dick Hudgens writes:
I saw a news story about lawyers that are going to sue the SEC on behalf
of their clients who lost money in the Madoff Ponzi scheme. They will allege
that the failure of the SEC to properly regulate Madoff caused them to lose
their money. If they win you and I will be repaying the Madoff investors.
In other words the government would have to pay off people for being dumb
enough to get caught up in this scheme. If we start paying people for being
dumb investors the government is destined to go broke.
at its best.
is the discrete, sanitary way for your urgent relief.
Created by a Board Certified Urologist, it looks like an ordinary golf
club, but contains a reservoir built into the grip to relieve yourself.
is leak proof, easy to clean and no more embarrassing moments. Only
imagine this thing selling. But all my golfing friends -- all one of
them -- want one.
thing holds over half a liter, twice the volume commonly urinated.
visited. Last night
we picked two gorgeous ripe grapefruit off a tree in Dan Good's front yard.
The fruit were huge
.... the size of grapefruit.
reason to be in the Coachella Valley:
Wells Tennis TV Schedule -- EST times
PM - 2 AM
PM - 12 AM
PM - 7 PM
10:30 PM - 2:30 AM
PM - 7 PM
10:30 PM - 2:30 AM
PM - 7 PM
10:30 PM - 2:30 AM
PM - 7 PM
10:30 PM -12:30 AM
PM - 7 PM
10:30 PM - 12:30 AM
PM - 8 PM
PM -5 PM
weekend we're going to my partner's 60th birthday party. He's depressed about
getting "old." He shouldn't be. He has a wonderful family. He's
healthy. He still skis. And skis very well. Every day he has fun.
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
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