Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
8:30 AM EST, Friday, March 30: Rules.
You need to have them. 15% down and out is our oldest rules. I'm suggesting
today two new rules:
A money manager or fund that doesn't keep up with the S&P 500 for two
years should be summarily fired.
2. A money manager or fund that has a weird, non-logical, drop has probably
become a Cockroach manager. You need to be out instantly, if not sooner. You
can find out if they've become "Cockroach" by listening to their explanation
of their disaster. If it sounds weird, get out instantly. If not, you're likely
suffer more losses. It happened to me. I stayed in too long. Short fuses have
their rewards. They limit your losses. One idiocy usually follows another.
Porn" from Tribeca Financial, LLC. My
friend, Dan Good, sent me a piece from Tribeca. Neither he nor I know anything
about these guys. But I did enjoy this piece (though the bit about fees is no
longer accurate). They called the piece "Investment Porn."
I have noticed anything over these 60 years on Wall Street, it is that people
do not succeed in forecasting what's going to happen to the stock market."
The media has
a propensity to alarm investors with hyped messages of gloom and doom and
make people feel they need to rely on financial news shows and investment
gurus for updated information on the stock market. It benefits the media to
have investors hooked into financial and economic news stories and articles
as they provide `valuable' inside information. The bottom line is this: the
right time to be in the market is when an investor has money, and the right
time to get out of the market is when an investor needs the money.
The longer an
investor can stay invested, the better. An investor who remains fully invested
in down markets enjoys several benefits. Remaining in the market avoids exiting
a down market, thus avoiding locking in losses on stock mutual fund shares.
Hefty trading commissions or taxes on any realized capital gains are also
deflected. An investor can also benefit by never again paying high market
timing advisory fees.
A study of time
pickers tracked over 15,000 predictions by 237 market timing investment newsletters
from June, 1980 through December, 1992. By the end of the 12.5 year period,
94.5% of the newsletters had gone out of business, with an average length
of operations of about four years!
The survey concluded:
"There is no evidence that newsletters can time the market. Consistent
with mutual fund studies, `winners' rarely win again and `losers' often lose
are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who dont know
where the market is headed, and those who dont know that they dont
know. Then again, there is a third type of investor-the investment professional,
who indeed knows that he or she doesnt know, but whose livelihood depends
upon appearing to know. --William Bernstein
warming -- Part 2: I saw receding glaciers
in New Zealand. I see Australia's worst drought in a century. And I read more
and more reports by experts (for the latest, click
here) saying that
1. We have global warming, and
2. The consequences will not be good, i.e. heatwaves, bushfires, more intense
hurricanes, rising ocean water levels flooding coastal land, and
3. We humans are most likely responsible for it through our insistence on burning
But, yesterday's column (click
here) did bring a firestorm of email. I was wrong. Everything happening
is "natural," they said. "The media and the scientists are pumping
out gloom and doom because it's in their interest. And moreover you'll kill
industry and put us into a depression if you institute any controls."
This "do-nothing" is easy to argue. What bothers me also is buying
so much fossil fuels puts money into the hands of those countries who make mischief
for us and our friends. There are simple measures. Were we to lift our mileage
requirements from today's 21 miles per gallon to Europe's 42, one estimate suggests
that we would no longer need to import gas form Saudi Arabia, whose King this
week told the world that America's military presence in Iraq was "an illegitimate
foreign occupation." 15 of the 19 September 11 terrorists were Saudis.
you believe or not, there are major investment consequences to global warming,
some of which I discussed yesterday.
business in the Email World: Everyone has email.
Everyone expects instant responses. But sadly, email is neither reliable nor
always read. Hence my new email rules:
Respond to every email. "Got it" works. "Excellent"
works even better.
2. Send emails confirming phone calls. I will do this. You will do that, etc.
If you don't get a response to an email, it's probably in your friend's junk
email box and he hasn't seen it. Call.
You can't negotiate anything in email. The phone is better. Even better is face-to-face.
Put your phone numbers (landline and cell), your street address and web site
(if you have one) on each email. Makes calling you a lot easier. Think of each
email as your business card.
Eyeball your outbox frequently. Outlook often blocks all your outgoing email.
To send it, you have to close Outlook and then start it again.
times? Australia went off daylight savings at a different time to
the U.S. Hence my clock showing if I can call my sister in Sydney got messed
up, again. My Australian friend said try Time and date.com. I did. It's good.
does it again: JibJab were the brilliant creators
of the popular animated video called This Land, which featured John Kerry
and Pres. Bush. They've done it again with a new video called What We Call
The News. It's neat. Click
begins on Monday evening:
A group of leading medical researchers have published data indicating
that Seder participants should NOT partake of both chopped liver and charoses.
It seems that this combination can lead to Charoses of the Liver.
At our seder,
we will have whole wheat and bran matzoh, fortified with Metamucil. The brand
name is..."Let My People Go."
If a doctor carries
a black bag and a plumber carries a tool box, what does a mohel carry? A bris
We give the answer, you give the question:
Q: What is a Middle East skin disease?
A: The Gaza Strip
Q: What is an Egyptian Belly Dance?
Q: On what do Jews recline on Passover?
Q: What does the rabbi do during some sermons?
A: Filet Minyan
Q: What do you call steaks ordered by 10 Jews?
This column is about my personal search
for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have
to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter
and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available
for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second,
the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the
Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their
ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email
address is .
You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects
me from software scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no
role in choosing the Google ads. Thus I cannot endorse any, though some look
mighty interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please
note I'm not suggesting you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Claire's
law school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click
here and here.