Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
8:30 AM EST Wednesday, May 10, 2006: The
big tech companies are spending more to stay up, while sales flatten and inventories
explode. I love technology, but we've hit a wall, for now.
In his latest newsletter, The High-Tech Strategist, Fred Hickey talks
about PC revenue growth this year as being negative and an upcoming crisis
in the semiconductor biz. Indicative: Cisco's miserable returns of late:
Chart from today's Wall Street Journal
Says Hickey, "The semiconductor equipment industry's largest customer (Intel)
will soon be slashing equipment orders. It has no choice."
Hickey's long holdings are in metals -- especially gold (Newmont) and the new
silver ETF (SLV). He has a tiny short position in Google, which he sees as a
train running 300 MPH down a track. "If it hits any kind of bump (an accelerated
slowdown in advertising spending due to a slower economy or a slowdown caused
by increased competition), Google's stock will be a spectacular train wreck.
Continues Hickey, "In its Q1 report, Microsoft let it be known it was willing
to sacrifice its own short-term profitability in order to ratchet up the heat
Hickey currently holds longer-term put options on Netlogic (NETL), Omnivision
(OVTI), Palm (PALM), Benchmark Electronics (BHE), Jabil Circuits (JBL), Texas
Instruments (TXN), CDW Corp. (CDWC), Intel (INTC), Freescale Semiconductor (FSL),
Garmin (GRMN), SanDisk (SNDK), Nvidia (NVDA), Lam Research (LRCX), Home Depot
(HD), Goldman Sachs (GS), Lehman Brothers (LEH), Capital One (COF) and Countrywide
Financial (CFC). He said he will consider buying put options on companies reporting
this month: Cisco, Analog Devices and Marvell.
Gabriel's investment focus.
Gabriel Venture Partners runs venture funds. Yesterday was their annual partners
meeting. Their two recent funds -- from 1999 and 2001 -- are barely breaking
even. It's been a hard few years for venture firms. Areas they're now looking
to invest include:
+ Disruptive technologies: Storage and memory, imaging and display and
power and battery life.
+ India: Export oriented services, consumer businesses, Internet and
mobile apps, products and business services.
+ Network Infrastructure: Other people's networks, enhanced communications
services, VoIP Security and QoS (Quality of service)..
+ Wireless. Mobile entertainment and rich media, off-deck and user-generated
publishing. Mobile marketing and advertising.
"Disruptive technologies" means those that can bring dramatic price
reductions, substantial performance improvement and the enabling of new markets.
They're excited by "next gen (generation) wireless infrastructure."
The opportunity is simply, "Proliferation of smart devices will drive the
need to build new infrastructure." There's an opportunity to provide smaller,
cheaper and more power-efficient equipment as the industry migrates to small
I'm hearing more
and more -- from Gabriel and others -- about India as "the great
entrepreneurial opportunity" of this century. I'm still looking
for investment vehicles in India.
portfolio review: "Buy and hold" can work -- IF you
review your holdings monthly. Go through each one. Have its business prospects
or financials changed? Has its stockmarket price risen too fast or dropped too
sharply? Has it developed any cockroach tendencies? Should I take some profit
off the table or invest more money? Regular review will save surprises later.
I recommend the Wall Street Journal's site for simple overview research presented
in a clean, easy-to-find way.
you send by email or put on your hard disk can be found: There are
no secrets in this digital world. They have people called computer forensic
experts. Paid sufficiently, they can find anything -- even if you've "erased"
the file. As hard drives get bigger, it's even easier to find erased stuff.
There is software that will permanently delete stuff. But using that software
raises red flags. The only rule is don't type anything you may regret
later. That ranges from sexual harassment to insider trading, from company
gossip to thoughts of revenge.
Goldberg explains his affair
Morris came home and found his wife
"You're having an affair with your secretary. Why would you do that to
me? I've always been a good wife. I've cooked for you, raised your children,
and have always been by your side for 35 years. What haven't I done to make
"It's true, you've been the best wife a man could hope for. You make me
happy in all ways but one. You never moan when we have sex."
Sadie said, "If
I moaned when we have sex, would you stop running around?"
Sadie: "All right, come to the bedroom so I can show you how I can moan
They went to the
bedroom, got undressed, and jumped into bed. As they started kissing, Sadie
said, "Now, Morris? Should I moan now?"
He said, "No,
He started to
fondle her and she said, "What about now? Should I moan now?"
He said, "No,
I'll tell you when."
He climbed on
top of her and started to move."
She said, "Is
it time for me to moan now, Morris?"
He said, "Wait,
wait, I'll tell you when."
A few minutes
later, just seconds before he was going to finish, he said "Now, Sadie.
Moan. Moan! Moan."
She said, "Oy,
you wouldn't believe what a day I had..."
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software
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