Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
8:30 AM EST, Wednesday, November 14, 2007: Dangerous
fake-out. That's what yesterday was. As I wrote yesterday, "Do not be
fooled by bear market bounces, which are often violent, and short-lived."
Yesterday's was pleasantly violent -- up 2.5% on the Dow; up 3.5% on Nasdaq,;
up 4.9% in Hong Kong and up 1.2% in Australia.
None of this changes
my view (see yesterday)
that we're headed for bad times in the stockmarket.
There are bumps
along the way. Your broker will try and talk you out of going to cash. He will
have arguments about "no one can time the market" and "You'll
miss bounces like yesterday," etc. Trust your own instincts. It's your
money. You earned it. You can invest it or not invest it any way you want to.
Any money manager
that ONLY goes long and never goes short is CRAZY. Unfortunately, most mutual
funds are this way -- they don't have the authority in their Prospectus to
do short trades. Isn't that silly? Why do people think stocks only go up?
Obviously, stocks go up, down, and sideways. Your strategy has to take into
consideration all 3 scenarios.
By the way --
worse than the guys that never go short are the guys that buy more when things
get bad, because they have "sector allocations" they try to meet
so they can "average down" their cost. What a bunch of B.S. If it
is going down, sell it!
of the day:
better go to a drugstore and get a neck brace. Its an extremely emotional
market. It goes from boom to doom on a daily basis." -- Ed Yardeni, an
doctor visit: I have
chronic ulceration of my lower esophagus. I'm on 20 mg Omeprazole (generic name
for Prilosec) twice a day. Omeprazole cuts down on the acid my stomach produces,
allowing my esophagus to heal. That' is now happening -- as seen by my second
endoscopy -- they stick a camera down your throat and check what's happening.
The point of this story is that my doctor insists on regular visits -- during
which he gives me yet another lecture on the importance of sticking with my
medication. He says the major problem with pills taken for chronic problems
-- like high blood pressure -- is that people stop taking them after they feel
"better." This usually lasts six month.
short, if you have some chronic problem, keep taking your pills< -- no matter
how well you feel. I feel great.
True Cost of a New Television Set: From MSNBC..com
If you're shopping
for a television, you several have choices. For those of us who are new to
television shopping here's what we can tell you: There are three main types:
plasma, LCD, and the micro display. Plasma and LCD are both flat panel and
the top sellers. Plasma's a gas and LDC is a liquid. They come with similar
price tags, but very different energy costs. Much of the time the amount of
energy used is proportional to the heat emitted. So 22News took a thermometer
into Manny's TV and Appliance in Wilbraham to find out which TVs are the "hottest".
LCD TV (model 52hl167) was 103 degrees. It runs on about 218 watts. But, the
Samsung plasma (model fpt-5084x) was 120 degrees and it runs on about 430
watts. Double the wattage. Double the energy. And more out of your pocket
for the electricity bill.
But it's not
a simple sticker comparison to find out which TVs are more energy efficient
and you can't bet on finding out at the store. Even some of the manuals will
not disclose this specification. But you can look them up by model number
on the Internet and check out the online manuals or contact the manufacturer.
One item that
will not help you make your decision is the energy star rating. On
most appliances the energy star indicates the product meets EPA and department
of energy guidelines for energy efficiency.
But in the case
of televisions, the only energy you're saving is when the TV is turned off.
of Manny's TV And Appliance in Wilbraham elaborates, "Energy star doesn't
actually rate the TV when it's on. It rates the TV when it's actually powered
off. Even though it's powered off, the TV actually still is on in a little
way." (Harry's comment: It's awaiting input from a remote.)
But once you
start flipping through the channels, the meter is ticking. Even though we're
composing those holiday lists in the cold months, it's really the summertime
when you are going to feel the heat from your new television purchase. Because
they generate so much warmth the thermostat will climb considerably. You'll
find the bill in your cooling costs.
So when you
weigh all the factors including the initial cost, the temperature of the TV,
and the cost of running it, it appears that LCD is the best deal.
An English professor told her students that there would be no excuse
for not showing up for their final exam, except for serious injury, illness,
or a death in the student's immediate family. A smartass jock in the back of
the room asked, "What about extreme sexual exhaustion?"
The entire class
did its best to stifle their laughter.
When silence was
restored, the teacher smiled sympathetically at the student, shook her head,
and sweetly said, "You can write with your other hand."
New Accountant and the two envelopes
An accountant spends a week at his new office, with the accountant he is replacing.
On the last day, the departing accountant tells him that he left two envelopes
in the desk drawer, and that envelope No. 1 should be opened if he ever encounters
any sort of crisis on the job and envelope No. 2 should be opened if a further
Three months down
the road there is a major drama: all the accounts are wrong (the usual stuff)
and the accountant feels very threatened by it all. He remembers the parting
words of his predecessor, and opens the first envelope. The message inside says:
"Blame me!" He does this and gets off the hook.
Three months later,
he encounters his next crisis and opens the second envelope.
The message inside
says: "Write two envelopes."
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software
scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing
the Google ads on this site. Thus I cannot endorse, though some look interesting.
If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting
you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Michael's business school
tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click
here and here.