Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
8:30 AM Wednesday, October 19, 2005: The
dumbest mistake you can make is not to sell your stock after it falls
15% -- from its peak or from where you bought it. We hold onto stocks
for dumb reasons:
1. We fall in love with them -- their products, their management, etc.
2. We are lazy.
3. We ignore the charts, which usually tell a simple, objective story.
4. We don't like admitting to a mistake. While we hold it, we haven't lost anything.
Only when we sell it, will we then be really dumb..
5. We think it will bounce. Somehow magically, one day the world will recognize
6. We enjoy the ongoing pain. This is called pleasurable masochism.
7. We've done a "fundamental" analysis and are convinced we're right
and, for now, the market is wrong. This is supreme arrogance or superior intelligence.
Probably the former.
8. There's an event coming up which may change everyone's perception. In this
case it's November 10 -- TriPath's meeting with the few analysts it has.
My dumbest, biggest
mistake is holding on TriPath Imaging (TPTH). Yesterday I did what I've
done many times. I called several large holders of the stock and asked them
what was going on? The stock has tumbled from $9.52 to its present $6.84. And
the answer was the same it's always been:
1. The president,
Paul Sohmer, is not hot on investor relations, but has finally been coerced
into hiring a new investor relations firm.
2. The CFO, Steve Hall, is a good CFO, but a horrible investor relations guy.
3. There are two few analysts covering the stock.
4. The company
is earnings positive. Its SurePath business alone could generate 33 cents in
earnings in 2005.
5. The company has a ton of intellectual property -- over 110 issued patents.
6. New products have a huge potential, especially in the early identification
of cervical cancer. And the potential market is gigantic.
7. The president has a million shares/options -- major incentive to sell the
company for $20+ a share. He's already sold three companies. He'll sell this
one when he's ready.
I have two recent analysts' reports. They're both positive on TriPath. They
have lots of arguments, lots of information and lots of spreadsheets. For the
Wachovia Securities (target $10 to $13) report, click
here. For the Moors & Cabot report ($12 target), click
For now, I'm holding my TriPath stock, for all the reasons above.
enormous charm: See a
need. Fix it. Don't wait for someone else. When Bobbi Warren's son, Todd, contracted
Hodgkin's lymphoma, a form of cancer, she pulled out all stops to help him.
In doing do, Bobbi found not only was there no cure, little research, no support
groups and no central information source. Bobbi is an enthusiasm powerhouse.
She formed the Lymphoma Research Foundation (LRF). Now she's raised $21
million. Lymphoma research is exploding. Patients have support. Chapters are
sprouting nationwide. There's information galore on LRF's handsome web site.
Last night Bobbi invited us to the Foundation's Annual Gala at New York's Marriott
Marquis hotel on Times Square. The affair was truly gala, with celebs like Mariano
Rivera and John Starks supporting the Foundation. Go Bobbi.
My friend, Bobbi Warren, founder of the Lymphoma Research Foundation. Her
son Todd is a Hodgkin's lymphoma survivor. If anyone finds a cure for lymphoma,
it will be through Bobbi's efforts. I'm proud to be her friend.
philosophy of George Ntim: Last night's dinner
honored George Ntim, an amazing man with huge community accomplishments. In
accepting the award, George explained his five prong personal philosophy:
2. Have integrity.
3. Be consistent in your dealings.
4. Be kind to people.
5. Serve the community.
computer is slowing.": As computer guru to all my friends, I
hear "slowing computer" regularly. There are several solutions:
1. Back up all your data instantly. Best, back it up two places.
2. Run an anti-virus program.
3. Run an anti-spyware program. Careful not to erase needed cookies.
4. Uninstall all software you're no longer using, especially any you recently
5. Run Disk Fragmenter. Right click on My Computer. Right click on Drive C:
and go to Tools.
6. When all this fails to speed up your computer (as it probably will), it's
time to start from scratch. Format your hard disk. Install Windows and your
various software programs from scratch. When you do, look skeptically at all
your software. Ask yourself, "Do I really need it?" If not, don't
install it. The more software you install, the more your computer will struggle.
Is it Heaven or Hell?
A man dies and finds himself in a small room furnished with a couch
There's another guy sitting on the couch, watching the screen.
"So, is this heaven or hell?" he asks the guy on the couch.
"Well, there are no windows or doors, and no apparent way out," the
"So it's hell?"
"I don't know," says the other guy, without looking up. "They
did give us this nice big TV."
"So maybe it's heaven."
"Maybe, but it has only one channel," the man counters.
"Oh, so maybe it's hell?"
"Well, the station it gets is pretty good. It's PBS."
"So, maybe this is heaven after all?"
"Yeah, except for one thing," the other guy says sadly, "It's
always Pledge Week."
Seattle's Charming Weather
The newcomer to Seattle arrives on a rainy day. She gets up the next
morning and it's raining. It continues to pour for the rest of the week. Leaning
out her apartment window, she sees a little boy on the stoop below and asks,"Hey,
kid, does it ever stop raining around here?"
The kid looks
up and replies, "How should I know? I'm only six."
+ How my private equity fund is doing. Click
+ Blackstone private equity funds. Click
+ Manhattan Pharmaceuticals: Click
+ NovaDel Biosciences appeals. Click
+ Hana Biosciences appeals. Click
+ All turned on by biotech. Click
+ Steve Jobs Commencement Address. The text is available:
Click here. The full audio is available. Click
+ The March of the Penguins, an exquisite movie. Click
+ When to sell stocks. Click
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software
scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing
the Google ads. Thus I cannot endorse any, though some look mighty interesting.
If you click on a link, Google may send me money. That money will help pay Claire's
law school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click
here and here.