Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
8:30 AM EST Tuesday, October 31, 2006: Lucky,
or smart? I'd rather be lucky. My father always said, "Take some money
home." He meant sell a little while you're lucky while the winds of fortune
blow your way. Everyone knows I love Australian mining stocks (especially KZL,
ZFX and MRE -- see yesterday's column. Click
here.). Forbes talks about
Australia in its current issue:
like to call their homeland "The Lucky Country" in testament to their
continent's bounteous riches, benign climate and geographic isolation from the
world's trouble spots. Even the country's national colors are those of prosperity:
green and gold.
The phrase "Lucky
Country" is now used without irony, though it comes from the title of
a book published in 1963 by social critic Donald Horne. He saw a nation in
peril, Anglo-centric and drifting along on the back of its natural wealth,
with business reliant on trade barriers and tariffs, and labor on union protection
of wages and conditions.
Britain that worked," was a more derisive description of the time.
on, Australia is much changed by immigration, particularly from Asia, and
economic reform. The result has been a decade and a half of uninterrupted
economic growth with low inflation and low unemployment, and a restructuring
of the economy with a relative lack of social disruption by the standards
of industrialized economies.
benefits from the wealth on and under its land and seas. Natural resources
and energy companies remain well represented on our list of Australia's 40
biggest companies. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, two mining giants, occupy second
and fourth places in the list. (Click
The top ten is rounded out by banks, financial services firms, a telecoms
group and food retailers. The full 40 spans multinationals in a range of industries,
from Fosters, synonymous with beer but whose wine business is now its larger
part, to Qantas Airways to Macquarie Bank, which has developed an investment
banking niche in large-scale infrastructure and is the world's largest
operator of private toll roads.
prosperity of East Asia is Australia's latest slice of luck. China's industrial
development has created a seemingly insatiable appetite for Australian minerals
and fuels, while the rise of the region's consuming middle class has created
new and growing markets for its agri- and foods businesses beyond Japan.
One out of two
of Australia's export dollars are now earned in East Asia, and three out of
four in the Asia-Pacific region as a whole, which is also the destination
for more than half of Australia's foreign direct investment.
relations with China, Japan and Indonesia in particular has become a policy
priority for the government. Demand for Australian exports of raw materials,
energy and food are likely to mean that the economy will grow this year by
about half a percentage point more than last year's 2.5%.
A dark cloud
on the horizon could be good for Australia -- providing it is a rain cloud.
A couple of years of exceptionally dry weather have hit agricultural production,
although exports have held up so far. Another year of drought, however, could
bite into gross domestic product growth.
risk to growth is inflation. The central bank raised rates in August for the
second time this year to combat an inflation rate that had broken through
its 3% target ceiling. A further rates rise from the current 6%
before year's end is in the cards and could depress domestic demand.
A tight labor
market is stoking the rise in prices. A shortage of skills is the growth constraint
on the modern Australian economy....
continues to creep up. It's now above $9. It's
a takeover prospect. That now makes three:
+ Sovereign Bank
+ 3Com (Coms)
fickleness of "HOT" markets: Once
there were bird flu companies, then China stocks, then housing stocks, then
alternative energy stocks. With rare exceptions most hot stocks are way down
from where they were when they were "hot." The speed of falling in
and out of favor is awesome (and I suspect, accelerating). Two solutions remain:
+ Broad diversification. Spread your bets.
+ Do what my father said, "Take some money home."
Once housing was burning hot, now? Here's
my favorite financial columnist, James Surowiecki, from the latest issue of
tips - Part 2:
SAFE AS HOUSES?
In the past
few months, its been almost all bad news for the housing market. Homebuilders
have had to tell Wall Street that between twenty and thirty per cent of their
contracts have been canceled. Janet Yellen, the head of the Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco, has said that streets full of unsold new homes now
make parts of Phoenix and Las Vegas look like ghost towns. Selling
a home takes longer than it used to, and the inventory of existing homes for
sale has gone up almost forty per cent in the past year. Yet, through it all,
one fact has continued to provide solace to anxious homeowners and real-estate
brokers alike: housing prices have stayed remarkably stable.
The lesson were
supposed to take from this is that a home remains as solid and safe an investment
as ever. After all, were constantly told, you have to go back to the
Great Depression to find a full year in which housing prices fell. Unfortunately,
the numbers upon which these comforting conclusions dependnamely, median
home prices for the countryare unreliable and misleading.
There are plenty
of statistics available about the housing market, but median home prices,
which are tracked by both the National Association of Realtors and the Census
Bureau, are what typically make headlines. They seem to tell buyers and sellers
exactly what they want to know: how much the one has to spend, how much the
other stands to make. The N.A.R. says that median sale prices for existing
homes have risen fifty-seven per cent since 2000, and in many markets the
increase has been much bigger than that.
numbers come from an association that has a vested interest in making the
housing market look healthy, they do provide a roughly accurate picture of
how housing prices have behaved in the past six years. But if youre
trying to figure out what kind of investment housing iswhat rewards
you can expect and what risks youll runmedian prices become a
lot less useful. In the first place, the data dont adjust for improvements
in quality. People have been building bigger homesthe typical new home
is about twenty-five per cent bigger than it was twenty years agoand
putting money into improvements like central air-conditioning, home theaters,
and pools. And the impact of quality adjustments isnt trivial; a study
of home prices between 1977 and 2003 found that adjusting for quality reduced
the return to homeowners by forty per cent.
As for the much
vaunted statistic about housing prices never falling for a full year since
the Depression? Thats true only if you forget about inflation. When
you adjust for it, you find long stretches when housing prices tumbled and
then stayed low for years; nationally, real home prices were actually eight
per cent lower in 1991 than they were in 1979. What makes the problem worse
is that sellers have recently been offering buyers huge incentives, ranging
from granite counters to free cars and, in some cases, large rebates. These
are, in fact, price cuts, but they never make it into the data.
the problem of sample bias. When you hear that housing prices in a city have
gone up, you assume that all the homes in the city have become more valuable.
But the numbers reflect only the homes that were actually sold in a given
month, and, if more of those homes happen to be expensive, itll make
the market as a whole look strong even if its really quite weak. This
is what leads to the curious phenomenon of median prices rising even as the
number of sales is plummeting and the backlog of houses on the market is soaring.
median prices compare completely different groups of homes (all those sold
in August, 2005, say, and all those sold in August, 2006), they can overstate
how much prices go up during booms and understate how much they go down during
busts. Luckily, there are other measures we can use. For example, the government
compiles one index that tracks the repeat sales of homes that have mortgages
with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and another index that measures new-home
sales while controlling for quality. The economist Robert Shiller, meanwhile,
has created an index that controls for quality by tracking repeated sales
of the same houses over more than a century. Together, these numbers give
us a better picture of what happens to housing prices over time. And though
they show that housing prices have risen sharply in the past decade, they
also show that, over the longer haul, investing in a home is far from a sure
thing; if you control for inflation and quality, Shiller found, real home
prices barely budged between the eighteen-nineties and the nineteen-nineties.
The idea that housing prices have nowhere to go but up is, in other words,
a statistical illusion.
illusion, though, that has powerful effects. Clearly, it encouraged the speculative
buying of the past few years. And it has also made sellers remarkably hesitant
to cut prices, which has led to the huge backlog of unsold properties. Eventually,
sellers are bound to realign their expectations with reality by trimming their
asking prices. That will hurt people who were fooled into reckless speculation
by assurances that investing in houses offered risk-free rewards. For most
people, however, a decline in prices neednt be so painful. If youre
planning to sell your home and buy another one, an over-all decline in housing
prices leaves you no poorer than before. And, if youre staying in your
home, a drop in value can actually make things easier by lowering property
taxes and insurance costs. Look at the bright side: at least youve got
a roof over your head.
+ A noise canceling set of headphones is a must. It cuts down plane
noise. Music from your iPod comes through crystal clear. You can sleep. I use
Targus AWM02US. Worth every penny. $40. Click
Reforming the unreformable: Neat
survey of France in this week's Economist. The magazine says France needs
serious economic reform. But there are impediments. My favorites:
+ In a recent survey by Globescan, a polling group, 71% of Americans agreed that
the free-market economy was the best system available, as did 66% of the British
and 65% of the Germans. For France, the figure was 36%.
+ Marxist thinking still has a grip on the collective imagination. It comforts
those at the bottom of the pile who rail at the recent explosion in executive
pay. ... The 35-hour-week rules were based on the misapprehension that there is
a fixed amount of work to be shared out.
(I love that one.)
irksome error messages: You
plug something into your PC. It tries to install your shiny new thing, but fails.
Forever after you're plagued by irritating Install Error messages. Solution:
Right click on My Computer, Properties. Hardware tab. Scroll down. Delete (using
the Delete key) the piece of hardware with the yellow
exclamation point -- !
Favorite Borscht Belt humor:
+ A man called his mother in Florida, "Mom, how are you?"
"Not too good," said the mother. "I've been very weak."
The son said, "Why are you so weak?" She said, "Because I haven't
eaten in 38 days."
The son said, "That's terrible. Why haven't you eaten in 38 days?"
The mother answered. "Because I didn't want my mouth to be filled with
food if you should call."
+ A Jewish boy
comes home from school and tells his mother he has a part in the play. She asks,
"What part is it? The boy says, "I play the part of the Jewish husband."
The mother scowls and says, "Go back and tell the teacher you want a speaking
+ Did you hear
about the bum who walked up to a Jewish mother on the street and said, "Lady,
I haven't eaten in three days."
She replied: "So force yourself,"
+ The doctor gave
a man six months to live.
The man couldn't pay his medical bill, so the doctor gave him another six months.
+ The Doctor called
Mrs. Cohen saying, "Mrs. Cohen, your check came back."
Mrs. Cohen answered, "So did my arthritis!"
+ Doctor: "You'll
live to be 60!"
Patient: "I AM 60!"
Doctor: "See! What did I tell you?"
+ A doctor held
a stethoscope up to a man's chest.
The man asks, "Doc, how do I stand?"
The doctor answers "That's what puzzles me!"
This column is about my personal search
for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have
to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter
and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available
for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second,
the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the
Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their
ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email
address is .
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