Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Newton's In Search Of The Perfect Investment. Technology Investor.
8:30 AM Wednesday, September 21, 2005:
The Fed raised rates, as I suspected. Its words:
poised to continue growing at a good pace before the tragic toll of Hurricane
Katrina. The widespread devastation in the Gulf region, the associated dislocation
of economic activity, and the boost to energy prices imply that spending,
production, and employment will be set back in the near term. In addition
to elevating premiums for some energy products, the disruption to the production
and refining infrastructure may add to energy price volatility.
unfortunate developments have increased uncertainty about near-term economic
performance, it is the Committee's view that they do not pose a more persistent
threat. Rather, monetary policy accommodation, coupled with robust underlying
growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity.
Higher energy and other costs have the potential to add to inflation pressures.
However, core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term
inflation expectations remain contained.
perceives that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside
risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability should
be kept roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be contained,
the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace
that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to
changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain
In the past, the
Fed has overshot in tightening and loosening. Think of the Fed as an airconditioning
system -- always trying to find the happy medium. Except the medium is not as
precise as a temperature of 70 degrees.
Higher interest rates will start to affect real estate. Good time to reassess
your real estate exposure. Re-finance. Sell, etc.
much due diligence? The company has disruptive technology. Its super
technology will change the way paint is sold worldwide, and, in the process,
make itself a fortune. But, it won't raise enough money to fulfil its promise.
(It's worried about dilution.) It hasn't cottoned onto Newton's Marketing
+ For every $1 you spend on engineering, you need to spend $10 on marketing
+ You'll go down the wrong marketing path three times before you finally get
it right the fourth time.
That's a brief summary of yesterday's three hour in-field meeting. I visited
an installation. Great technology. Not enough money. Not enough marketing. This
is common among technology startups many of whom think they can bring their
product to market for the shoestring they invented their technology with. And
that's the lesson for us seeking the perfect investment. Get excited about the
technology. But focus on "Does the company have the resources to fulfil
commodities fund? I promised more about commodites
today. It will have to be tomorrow. Some readers have suggested ways of investing
in commodities -- from mutual funds to buying them individually. If you have
ideas, email them my way, please. I'm mulling.
Real estate "bargains": The hyper
growth in commercial real estate values has been primarily on both coasts. Now
the focus is shifting to the center of the country where properties are cheaper
-- Memphis, St Louis, Cincinnati, etc.
Time to kill my son: Every few days he turns
up carrying a book. I read a few pages, get engrossed and lose a night's sleep.
The boy has impeccable taste. This is his latest one. Blame today's short column
on Michael. I'm exhausted.
stupid Bubba joke:
Bubba's pregnant sister is in a serious car accident causing her
to fall into a deep coma. She awakens after nearly six months and sees that
she is no longer pregnant. Frantically she asks the doctor about her baby. The
doctor replies, "Ma'am you had twins - a boy and a girl and your babies
are fine. Your brother came in and named them."
The woman thinks
to herself, "Oh no! Not Bubba; he's an idiot!" Expecting the worst,
she asks the doctor, "Well, what's the girl's name?" "Denise,"
the doctor answers. The new mother thinks, "Wow! That's a beautiful name!
I guess I was wrong about my brother. I really like the name Denise."
She then asks
the doctor, "What's the boy's name?" The doctor replies, "Denephew."
+ Blackstone private equity funds. Click
+ Manhattan Pharmaceuticals: Click
+ NovaDel Biosciences appeals. Click
+ Hana Biosciences appeals. Click
+ All turned on by biotech. Click
+ Steve Jobs Commencement Address. The text is available:
Click here. The full audio is available. Click
+ The March of the Penguins, an exquisite movie. Click
+ When to sell stocks. Click
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
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