Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Technology Investor. Harry Newton
AM EST, Tuesday, July
28, 2009. Stock prices rise 9 months before a recession
ends. The huge stock boom since March 9 has run its course. Choose whichever
position (or poison?) you feel comfortable with.
that's what millions of words in financial journals and reports are agitating
I prefer to be optimistic and stick with the first position. Prices will rise,
albeit perhaps more slowly.
Some nice charts:
The Australian dollar has recovered to 82 cents. That's huge.
This is the Chinese
auto maker, which Warren Buffet has a piece of.
My friend is currently
in Brazil. He says that place is booming.
interesting statistics: Thank you Rick.
+ WORKING FOR
YOURSELF - The average net worth of American families headed by a person that
is an employee of a firm (i.e., not a business owner) is $352,000. The average
net worth of American families headed by a self-employed person is $1.96 million.
This data is part of the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances collected by the Federal
Reserve and was released in June 2009 (source: Federal Reserve).
+ WHAT, ME WORRY?!
- 45% of retirees aged 55-75 surveyed in April 2009 have either not calculated
how long their assets are anticipated to last during their retirement years
or they have never given the issue any thought (source: Society of Actuaries).
items worth reading:
+ Robert Kuttner
argues High Frequency Trading is really front running (which is illegal). He
writes, "Very sophisticated financial firms, such as Goldman Sachs, are
tipped off by the New York Stock Exchange's own computers to pending buy and
sell orders. Armed with ultra sophisticated computer algorithms, the insiders
anticipate the direction of the market based on what they learn about supply
and demand for a given security. They can make an extra penny here and an extra
penny there at the expense of us suckers, adding up to billions." For more,
+ Was the AIG
Bailout a Goldman Bailout by Proxy? by Felix Salmon. Click here.
floor is reached.
Comments on the
chart (from someone who understands this stuff):
The white line is existing home inventory (units). Orange line is existing home
months of supply (units divided by rate of sales). Yellow is new home inventory.
Green is new home months of supply. While overall levels of inventory are still
high, sales are happening at an increasing rate. There's little new home inventory
left. As sellers of existing homes (85% of the market) come to terms with what
prices will clear a market (in my area the bid/asked has shrunk materially),
that green line is going to collapse, too. Housing has found a floor.
on overseas business class travel: Demand has
cratered. Airlines have dropped their prices. The traditional bargain has been
the two-for-one offered by many airlines and American Express Platinum. In the
past you could pay off your Amex Platinum fees from the airline savings. Now
no more. Airlines have dropped and are dropped their business class seats. From
Air Canada has
a sale in which a first-class ticket between Los Angeles and Shanghai is available
for less than $3,500. A year ago, a traveler could have easily paid over $15,000
on various airlines for that ticket.
from New York to London? For the British Airways swanky Club World cabin,
that will be about $2,544 round trip for late summer travel, with an advance
purchase. The walk-up fare for Club World on that route used to be about $11,000
and is still about $7,500.
New York to
Amsterdam? On the mostly business-class planes operated by OpenSkies, a British
Airways subsidiary, the summer fare is about $1,300, round trip.
In the past, my
old trick was to simply call the airline and bargain with them. Or use a friendly
travel agent to do my bargaining. I bet that trick still works today.
(or desperate?) marketing.
Spied on the side of cardboard box containing
12 cans of coke.
What say? "Limited Edition" We really believe this stuff?
I please kill the fellow who ruined my delicious red plum with this?
Photographed handheld with my Canon G10 on manual focus.
Spied on the 57th and 6th Avenue subway station.
Found at 14th and Sixth Avenue station.
Sculpture by Tom Otterness. For more, click here.
Woody Allen quotes.
+ If it turns out that there is a God, I don't think he's evil. The
worst that you can say about him is that basically he's an underachiever.
+ Eternal nothingness
is fine if you happen to be dressed for it.
+ Not only is there no God, but try getting a plumber on weekends.
+ The lion and the calf shall lie down together but the calf won't get much
+ It's not that I'm afraid to die. I just don't want to be there when it happens.
+ Money is better
than poverty, if only for financial reasons.
+ My parents were very old world. They come from Brooklyn, which is the heart
of the Old World. Their values in life are God and carpeting.
+ Some guy hit my fender, and I told him 'be fruitful, and multiply.' But not
in those words.
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software
scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing
the Google ads on this site. Thus I cannot endorse, though some look interesting.
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here and here.