Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Technology Investor. Harry Newton
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Columns
9:00
AM EST, Friday,
July 3, 2009. Today we're celebrating the traditional
July 4 Independence Day holiday. Hence everything is closed. The Wimbledon gentlemen's
semifinals are playing on NBC this morning. As I write, Federer is playing Haas.
It's a good match. The TV schedule is below.
Here's
yesterday's column:
There
are two theories on our upcoming hyperinflation:
1.
Our government has printed so much money that hyperinflation is inevitable.
Watch out Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe. We'll beat you.
2.
Our economy has so many factories and so many people out of work that inflation
won't happen. If any inklings that things are getting out of hand emerge, the
Fed will raise interest rates and arrest the inflation. Meantime, today's critical
task is saving the U.S. from a really serious depression and from strong deflation.
If
you believe HyperInflation Theory 1 , you should:
A. Only
invest short-term , because in two to three years, treasuries will be paying
8-9%+ and muni bonds 15%. And then you'll want to pile in. You won't want to
be fixed income then because their value will be zippo.
B.
Booming overseas economies like China and India will be the place to invest.
C.
Buy gold and gold miners.
If
you believe the No-HyperInflation Theory 2 , you should:
A.
Buy cheap, decent quality "value" equities.
B.
Buy high-yielding "distress" corporate bonds because the company will
do OK. and the bonds will eventually be worth more, i.e. closer to par. And
you'll make a killing.
Most people believe
the hyperinflation theory. I have also. But extensive reading in the past few
days -- I won't bore you -- has convinced me that the No-HyperInflation Theory
is most likely. I say this, though I'm not turned on by all the
monies the government has spent.
I'm now much less
afraid of a major drop in the stockmarket. One huge reason is that 90% of the
Doom and Gloom (D&G) has happened and/or is known and predicted.
Despite all the D&G, the stockmarket has actually held up well.
I do not trivialize
how difficult these markets are. All my money managers have done terribly this
year. Most missed the March rally. Most are flat-to-slightly up on the year.
Russia
is nuts.
Putin is closing the gambling casinos and throwing
400,000 Russians out of work. No one knows why. Read more about this latest
Putin insanity. Click here.
For
God's sake: If you do something for your client, tell them. Send
them a quick email. Leave them a voice mail message. But don't leave them hanging.
Clients and customers get really pissed off if they're waiting for word on their
blocked toilet, their backing-up sewage system, their increasingly stinky house....
Are you listening Bill?
Wimbledon
2009 Tennis TV Schedule. Everything is live,
except on The Tennis Channel, which shows repeats.
Friday,
July 3 |
.
|
.
|
7:00
AM to 12:00 PM
|
Men's
Semifinals
|
ESPN2
|
12:00
PM to 5:00 PM
|
Men's
Semifinals
|
NBC
|
12:00
AM on
|
Men's
Semifinals
|
The
Tennis Channel
|
Saturday,
July 4 |
.
|
.
|
9:00
AM to 2:00 PM
|
Women's
Final
|
NBC
|
Sunday,
July 5 |
.
|
.
|
9:00
AM - 3:00 PM
|
Men's
Final
|
NBC
|
The
mule
A busy farmer needed some help with tending to the
animals. His mother-in-law offered to spend some time on his farm, and being
as busy as he was, the farmer had no choice but to accept her offer.
A few days later,
the mule kicked the mother-in-law and killed her.
Thousands of people
from town came to the poor lady's funeral, many that the farmer didn't even
know. A minister noticed this, came up to the farmer, and asked him, "Why
are there so many people here?"
The farmer answered,
"Oh, they're not here for the funeral. They want to buy the mule."
What's
it called?
Little Tony was staying with his grandmother for a few days. He'd
been playing outside with the other kids for awhile when he came into the house
and asked her, "Grandma, what is it called when 2 people are sleeping in
the same room and one is on top of the other?"
She was a little
taken aback, but decided to tell him the truth. "It's called sexual intercourse,
darling."
Little Tony just
said, "Oh, OK" and went back outside to the other kids.
A few minutes
later he came back in and said angrily, "Grandma, it is not called sexual
intercourse! It's called Bunk Beds! And Jimmy's Mom wants to talk to you right
now."
This
weekend. We celebrate our country and Susan's
(my wife's) birthday.
The U.S. markets
are closed tomorrow, Friday. See you Monday. Play lots of tennis. Go running.
Watch Wimbledon. Rest a little. Hug the kids and the grandkids.
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software
scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing
the Google ads on this site. Thus I cannot endorse, though some look interesting.
If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting
you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Michael's business school
tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click
here and here.
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