Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Technology Investor. Harry Newton
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9:00
AM EST, ,
June 23, 2009. Some good news. The FDIC has extended
the $250,000 bank account insurance. This was announced May 20. Clearly I'm
dumb for not knowing earlier. Or the FDIC takes the cake for the worst public
relations on the planet. Suffice, here's the announcement:
Deposits at
FDIC-insured institutions are now insured up to at least $250,000 per depositor
through December 31, 2013. On January 1, 2014, the standard insurance amount
will return to $100,000 per depositor for all account categories except for
IRAs and other certain retirement accounts which will remain at $250,000 per
depositor.
For confirmation,
go to the FDIC's
official web site. If you want to stay on top of their many rational
and timely moves, get on their email list. Click
here.
Friends are still
spreading their cash around multiple banks. Remember our mantra -- Cash is
King, despite the upcoming big inflation.
Reader David Gurgel
emails:
Harry,
Ally Bank, formerly
GMAC Bank, is FDIC insured and is one of the best and most convenient places
to stick spare cash. The American Bankers Association recently sent a letter
to the FDIC complaining of the high rates offered by this online-only bank.
Current rates are 2.0% for online savings, 2.30% APY on a one-year CD, and
1.85% on its money market fund. Check it out, and I believe you will find
it at or near the top in return for cash.
I set up accounts
at Ally and sweep cash into them from my primary brokerage and from my personal
checking. The online transactions have been smooth, and customer service was
quick and helpful on questions.
After the good
fortune of catching the recent upturn in equity and commodity markets, I liquidated
all of these last week - leaving me 50% cash and 50% tax-free, short-term
bond fund. The fund is yielding about 3.61% for the last twelve months.
Heck, why not.
Here's a clip from Ally's
web site. Here's my favorite line from their web site:
The
next Big Down is commercial real estate. Don't
believe me? Check out all the closed retail stores in your neighborhood. Then
check out all office vacancies. Banks are loaded with bad loans whose badness
they have not addressed. I call it the Egypt Syndrome. Also known as
Denial. Denial. Denial.
Think
this way. The bank lends 75% of the building's value. The building drops 50%
in price. The borrower is wiped out. One third of the value of the bank's loan
is wiped out -- and more, if the bank takes over the building and "manages"
it -- i.e. mismanages it and the value drops even lower. We have no idea where
the bottom is for commercial real estate. It looks like a lot more than where
it's indicated today.
How
bad is it? Reader Larry Piccioli emails
me:
Long time reader,
love the column, start every day with it. In our search for a way to make
money in this horrible environment of risky/expensive stocks, low yields,
declining property values etc, might it not be a good idea to take a macro
view of things once a month or so. This could be compiled from you and your
many fans. This is the only way that I keep my sanity and most importantly
my patience (cash is king) during these difficult times. I read my list daily.
Would love to see your and your readers thoughts. Pretty basic stuff that
all of us know but need to be constantly reminded of. Here is mine:
Employment: Greater than 10%, headed higher and even if brought down,
wages will be dramatically lower, global competition
Consumption: 70% of economy, lower wages, higher unemployment and philosophical
changes in life style will never bring us back to past levels
Financial Institutions: Now need to make loans that are viable, based
on sound, valuable assets. And, no more highly leveraged earnings.
Households: No home equity, high debt, stock losses, de-leveraging
as well. Will generally cut consumption.
Federal Govt.: Need to raise unprecedented amount of dollars. 10 year
is currently around 3.7% . Would you buy one? Rates going much higher.
Commoditization: Everything is virtually a "calculator".
That is, no significant barriers to most markets, price is the most important
value add, so to speak. All pc's do the same, cars look alike, everything
at Home Depot, Walmart, etc is made in China. Lowest price wins.
Technology: Software a commodity also, moving to a free model. Linux,
Android, Google Apps as examples. Even on the enterprise level, no differentiation
(Oracle, SAP,etc). Hardware? Same. Mobile phones? Same.
Corporate Earnings: S and P currently at 15 times earnings. I believe
the new normal here will be less than 10. There is no way earnings AND revenue
are going to consistently grow 15% in near future.
Commercial Real Estate: Way too much capacity, owners will not be able
to refinance their loans. This is the next disaster.
Will end this here, have a few more thoughts but may be boring you to death.
In short, capital preservation is king. The only things that makes sense to
me right now are:
+ GLD/SLV with covered calls.
+ TBT (Ultra Short Treasurys) with covered calls
+ Maybe, Utility ETF, IDV, PFF, etc, all with the intent of searching for
yield. Some of these have calls that can be written as well.
Energy Trusts?
Anything else is gambling in my opinion, some of the above may fall in this
bucket as well.
Personally, Bank
of America and Moodys remain good-looking shorts.
Elements
of contagion, according to Dr. Doom:
The price of oil,
which is rising too fast, and long-term interest rates that are beginning to
creep up are likely to suppress a budding recovery, Nouriel Roubini, president
of RGE Monitor, told CNBC Monday. Points:
1. Oil prices
going to $100.
2. Rising long-term
interest rates.
3. Higher unemployment.
4. Weak Europe,
especially in Eastern Europe.
Worth watching:
The Nouriel
Roubini interview.
Picassa
makes for easy photo sharing. Digital cameras
nice photos. That's the good news. Your friends nag you, "When are we going
to see the photos?" Finally, an easy solution: Picassa.
Picassa
is Google photo sharing software. Download
the Picassa software. Install it. Make sure it doesn't index
all your photos. Put all the photos you want to share in one folder. Then tell
Picassa to share the photos. Give it some email addresses of all your friends.
It will send them an email along with a link to click to find your photos. End
of story.
Google
Docs is simply amazing. Instead of shipping
a Word doc, an Excel spreadsheet and PowerPoint presentation back and forth,
have everyone sign into Google Docs and work online. Imagine working on a spreadsheet.
Suddenly, one of the cells changes -- it's your collaborator at the other end
making changes. Google Docs is seriously exciting. Among the best things on
the Internet today. Go here.
Airbus
problems. I'm not backing down from my recommendation
to stay away from flying Airbuses -- though my recommendation is not scientific
and the company claims it's doing a great job. Think two points: First, safety
record recently has been awful. Second, do you really want to fly an airplane
made by a bunch of governments?
Wimbledon
Tennis TV Schedule. Wimbledon continues:
Tuesday,
June 24, 2008
ESPN2
7 a.m.-5:30 p.m. (live) - Day 2
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (highlights) - Prime Time
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
ESPN2
7 a.m.-5 p.m. (live) - Day 3
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (highlights) - Prime Time
Thursday, June 26, 2008
ESPN2
7 a.m.-2:30 p.m. (live) - Day 4
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (highlights) - Prime Time
Friday, June 27, 2008
ESPN2
7 a.m.-5 p.m. (live) - Day 5
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (highlights) - Prime Time
Saturday, June 28, 2008
ESPN2
8 a.m.-noon (live); 3-7 p.m. (tape) - Day 6
NBC
12-3 p.m. (live) - Day 6
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (highlights) - Prime Time
Sunday, June 29, 2008
ESPN2
3-6 p.m. (tape) - Highlights Week 1
NBC
12-3 p.m. (tape) - Highlights Week 1
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (highlights) - Prime Time
Monday, June 30, 2008
ESPN2
7-10 a.m. (live); 1-6 p.m. (live/replay) - Fourth Round
NBC
10 a.m.-1 p.m. (live) - Fourth Round
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (replay) - Fourth Round
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
ESPN2
7-10 a.m. (live); 1-5 p.m. (live/replay) - Women's Quarterfinals
NBC
10 a.m.-1 p.m. (live) - Women's Quarterfinals
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (replay) - Prime Time
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
ESPN2
7-10 a.m. (live); 1-5 p.m. (live/replay)- Men's Quarterfinals
NBC
10 a.m.-1 p.m. (live) - Men's Quarterfinals
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (replay) - Prime Time
Thursday, July 3, 2008
ESPN2
7-12 p.m. (live); 8-10 p.m. (highlights) - Women's Semifinals
NBC
12-5 p.m. (in all time zones) - Women's Semifinals
Tennis Channel
8-10 p.m. (replay) - Prime Time
Friday, July 4, 2008
ESPN2
7-12 p.m. (live); 12-3 a.m. (highlights) - Men's Semifinals
NBC
12-5 p.m. (in all time zones) - Men's Semifinals
Saturday, July 5, 2008
NBC
9 a.m.-2 p.m. (live) - Women's Final
ESPN2
2-3 p.m. (highlights) - Women's Final
Sunday, July 6, 2008
NBC
9 a.m.-3 p.m. (live) - Men's Final
ESPN2
3-4 p.m. (highlights) - Men's Final
The
new logic. A couple is arguing on the New York City subway;
John: Be reasonable,
Mary, I made the date with Joan three months before you and I were married."
Favorite
recent New Yorker cartoons:
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software
scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing
the Google ads on this site. Thus I cannot endorse, though some look interesting.
If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting
you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Michael's business school
tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click
here and here.
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