Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Technology Investor. Harry Newton
Previous
Columns
9:00
AM EST, Wednesday,
June 24, 2009. Trendy Soho in New York City. We took
my sister there for dinner last night. Walking back along West Broadway, the main
shopping drag, I photographed shop window signs. These are from one block. Note:
ONE block.
Retail sales have
fallen off a cliff. Retailers have gone to their landlords and demanded a big
reduction in their rents. Some landlords have said Yes. Some have said No. Without
hefty rent concessions, retailers are liquidating their inventory and closing
their stores.
A friend had a
clothing store in the Bronx. His family had run it over 30 years. Sales dropped
30% last year. He asked his landlord for a reduction in the rent. The landlord
refused. My friend closed his store. I asked him, "Are you sad?"
He answered, "No
way. I could kiss the landlord. This year sales in the neighborhood are down
substantially. My landlord did me a huge favor. Now I get to play more tennis."
He's a good tennis
player.
For more on what's
happening in retailing, check out today's Wall Street Journal, "In Texas,
There's No Business Like 'Going Out of Business. Owner Alters Rug Shop's Controversial
Name but the Haggling Goes On and On." Click Wall
Street Journal.
The
Great Depression compared to the Great Recession. This is gruesome.
Two economics professors -- Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke -- compared
them. Here are their latest findings:
* World industrial
production continues to track closely the 1930s fall, with no clear signs of
green shoots.
* World stock markets have rebounded a bit since March, and world trade has
stabilized, but these are still following paths far below the ones they followed
in the Great Depression.
* There are new charts for individual nations industrial output. The big-4
EU nations divide north-south; todays German and British industrial output
are closely tracking their rate of fall in the 1930s, while Italy and France
are doing much worse.
* The North Americans (US & Canada) continue to see their industrial output
fall approximately in line with what happened in the 1929 crisis, with no clear
signs of a turn around.
* Japans industrial output in February was 25 percentage points lower
than at the equivalent stage in the Great Depression. There was however a sharp
rebound in March.
Here are their
charts:
![](/images/eichengreen_update_fig1.gif)
![](/images/eichengreen_update_fig2.gif)
![](/images/eichengreen_update_fig3.gif)
![](/images/eichengreen_update_fig4.gif)
New figure 5:
Industrial output, then and now:
![](/images/Output1.gif)
![](/images/Output2.gif)
Their summary:
Its
a Depression alright
Globally we
are tracking or doing even worse than the Great Depression, whether the metric
is industrial production, exports or equity valuations. Focusing on the US
causes one to minimize this alarming fact. The Great Recession
label may turn out to be too optimistic. This is a Depression-sized event.
That said, we
are only one year into the current crisis, whereas after 1929 the world economy
continued to shrink for three successive years. What matters now is that policy
makers arrest the decline. We therefore turn to the policy response.
![](/images/Policy1.gif)
![](/images/Response2.gif)
You can read their
entire piece. Click here.
Depression
era investment strategy: Cash is king. Liquidity is key. Stay short-term.
We won't see big inflation for at least two years.
The
new iPhone 3GS is a seriously better phone. It's blows BlackBerry
away. I finally played with one yesterday.
![](/images/Apple3Gs.gif)
What
blew me away:
1.
Its speed. It really is faster. You can feel it. I compared surfing the
web on the iPhone on AT&T with surfing the web on a Verizon BlackBerry.
The iPhone was much, much faster.
2.
Its new camera. It will do video. And the video is really good quality.
3.
Its speech recognition. You can say "Call Mom" and it will call
Mom.
Meantime,
apps for the iPhone at the Apple App Store continue to explode. There are now
more than 50,000. From crossword puzzles to subways maps, to accessing the files
on your remote PC, to converting currencies, to checking the weather, to checking
how your customers are doing.
Apple
sold a million iPhones in the first three days of its release. If you have an
old iPhone, you must download the new 3.0 software. It's improved in many ways.
Six million customers downloaded the new iPhone 3.0 software in the first five
days following its release. Meantime, the best news: Steve Jobs is back at work.
Wimbledon
Tennis TV Schedule.
Wednesday,
June 25, 2008
ESPN2
7 a.m.-5 p.m. (live) - Day 3
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (highlights) - Prime Time
Thursday, June 26, 2008
ESPN2
7 a.m.-2:30 p.m. (live) - Day 4
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (highlights) - Prime Time
Friday, June 27, 2008
ESPN2
7 a.m.-5 p.m. (live) - Day 5
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (highlights) - Prime Time
Saturday, June 28, 2008
ESPN2
8 a.m.-noon (live); 3-7 p.m. (tape) - Day 6
NBC
12-3 p.m. (live) - Day 6
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (highlights) - Prime Time
Sunday, June 29, 2008
ESPN2
3-6 p.m. (tape) - Highlights Week 1
NBC
12-3 p.m. (tape) - Highlights Week 1
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (highlights) - Prime Time
Monday, June 30, 2008
ESPN2
7-10 a.m. (live); 1-6 p.m. (live/replay) - Fourth Round
NBC
10 a.m.-1 p.m. (live) - Fourth Round
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (replay) - Fourth Round
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
ESPN2
7-10 a.m. (live); 1-5 p.m. (live/replay) - Women's Quarterfinals
NBC
10 a.m.-1 p.m. (live) - Women's Quarterfinals
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (replay) - Prime Time
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
ESPN2
7-10 a.m. (live); 1-5 p.m. (live/replay)- Men's Quarterfinals
NBC
10 a.m.-1 p.m. (live) - Men's Quarterfinals
Tennis Channel
7 p.m. (replay) - Prime Time
Thursday, July 3, 2008
ESPN2
7-12 p.m. (live); 8-10 p.m. (highlights) - Women's Semifinals
NBC
12-5 p.m. (in all time zones) - Women's Semifinals
Tennis Channel
8-10 p.m. (replay) - Prime Time
Friday, July 4, 2008
ESPN2
7-12 p.m. (live); 12-3 a.m. (highlights) - Men's Semifinals
NBC
12-5 p.m. (in all time zones) - Men's Semifinals
Saturday, July 5, 2008
NBC
9 a.m.-2 p.m. (live) - Women's Final
ESPN2
2-3 p.m. (highlights) - Women's Final
Sunday, July 6, 2008
NBC
9 a.m.-3 p.m. (live) - Men's Final
ESPN2
3-4 p.m. (highlights) - Men's Final
thoughts
on dating.
+
I'm dating a homeless woman. It was easier to talk her into staying over. --
Garry Shandling
+ Eve said to
the serpent "You know I could go for a bite to eat, but I don't know you
from Adam. -- Red Buttons
+ These are very
confusing times. For the first time in history, a woman is expected to combine
intelligence with a sharp hairdo, a raised consciousness with high heels, and
an open, nonsexist relationship with a tanned guy who has a great bod. -- Lynda
Barry
![](HarryNewton.gif)
This column is about my personal search for the perfect
investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have to be registered
with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter and an investor.
I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available for three
reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second, the column
is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the Perfect
Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their ideas,
concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email address
is . You can't
click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects me from software
scanning the Internet for email addresses to spam. I have no role in choosing
the Google ads on this site. Thus I cannot endorse, though some look interesting.
If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please note I'm not suggesting
you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Michael's business school
tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click
here and here.
|