Harry Newton's In Search of The Perfect Investment
Technology Investor. Harry Newton
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9:00
AM EDT, Thursday, October 22, 2009: You can't predict what will go
up or down. So you buy the best of breed across a broad spectrum and you rebalance
-- selling what's gone up, buying what's gone down. Hence, you bring your portfolio
back in "balance" -- back to your original allocation. As Vanguard
says in their paper
on rebalancing, "A portfolios asset allocation determines the portfolios
risk and return characteristics. Over time, as different asset classes produce
different returns, the portfolios asset allocation changes. To recapture
the portfolios original risk and return characteristics, the portfolio
must be rebalanced to its original asset allocation."
What got me excited
about rebalancing is this chart from UBS which I was given this week. They've
color coded the various asset classes -- bonds and equities. The results are
truly fascinating. What did great one year did awful the next and vice versa.

Here are the chart's
footnotes:
* Estimated.
Table source: Russell Mellon Analytical Services. Data as of 9/30/09.
The indexes used are the following: Large Cap Growth Russell 1000 Growth
Index; Large Cap Value Russell 1000 Value Index; Mid Cap Growth
Russell Mid Cap Growth Index; Mid Cap Value Russell Mid Cap Value Index;
Small Cap Growth Russell 2000 Growth Index; Small Cap Value Russell
2000 Value Index; International Equity Morgan Stanley Capital International
Europe, Australasia, Far East Index (EAFE) Net; US Bonds Barclays Capital
Aggregate Bond Index; S&P 500 Standard & Poor's 500 Index; HFRI
- HFRI Equity Hedge Index.
The past performance of an index is not a guarantee of how your portfolio will
perform. Indexes are not available for direct investment and reflect an unmanaged
universe of securities, which does not take into account advisory or transaction
fees, all of which will reduce the overall return. Prepared by UBS Financial
Services Inc. Manager Research Group. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
Asset allocation does not assure profits or prevent against losses in declining
markets.
The back of the
chart contains an explanation of the various indexes UBS used to measure the
growth (or otherwise) of particular market segments:
Barclays Capital
Aggregate Bond Index-Composed of securities from Barclays Capital government/corporate
bond index, mortgage- backed securities index, and the asset-backed securities
index. Total return comprises price appreciation/depreciation and income as
a percentage of the original investment. Indexes are rebalanced monthly by market
capitalization.
MSCI EAFE (EAFE)
Net-An arithmetic, market value-weighted average of the performance of over
900 securities listed on the stock exchanges of the following countries in Europe,
Australia and the Far East: Australia, Hong Kong, Norway, Austria, Ireland,
Singapore, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Denmark, Japan, Sweden, Finland, Malaysia,
Switzerland, France, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Germany, New Zealand.
S&P 500-Covers
500 industrial, utility, transportation, and financial companies of the US markets
(mostly NYSE issues). The index represents about 75% of NYSE market capitalization
and 30% of NYSE issues. It is a capitalization-weighted index calculated on
a total return basis with dividends reinvested.
Russell 1000
Growth-Contains those Russell 1000 securities with a greater-than-average
growth orientation. Securities in this index tend to exhibit higher price-to-book
and price-earnings ratios, lower dividend yields and higher forecasted growth
values than the value universe.
Russell 1000
Value-Contains those Russell 1000 securities with a less-than-average growth
orientation. It represents the universe of stocks from which value managers
typically select. Securities in this index tend to exhibit low price-to-book
and price-earnings ratios, higher dividend yields and lower forecasted growth
values than the growth universe.
Russell 2000
Growth-Contains those Russell 2000 securities with a greater-than-average
growth orientation. Securities in this index tend to exhibit higher price-to-book
and price-earnings ratios, lower dividend yields and higher forecasted growth
values than the value universe.
Russell 2000
Value-Contains those Russell 2000 securities with a less-than-average growth
orientation. Securities in this index tend to exhibit lower price-to-book and
price-earnings ratios, higher dividend yields and lower forecasted growth values
than the growth universe.
Russell Midcap
Growth-Contains those Russell Midcap securities with a greater-than-average
growth orientation. Securities in this index tend to exhibit higher price-to-book
and price-earnings ratios, lower dividend yields and higher forecasted growth
values than the value universe. The stocks are also members of the Russell 1000
Growth Index.
Russell Midcap
Value-Contains those Russell Midcap securities with a less-than-average
growth orientation. Securities in this index tend to exhibit low price-to-book
and price-earnings ratios, higher dividend yields and lower forecasted growth
values than the growth universe. The stocks are also members of the Russell
1000 Value Index.
Hedge Fund
Research Index-Equity Hedge Index (HFRI)-The HFRI Equity Hedge Index represents
performance of a universe of hedge funds that employ core holding strategies
of long equities hedged at all times with short sales of stocks and/or stock
index options. The hedge funds in this index commonly employ a variety of strategies
and some employ leverage. Relatively conservative funds mitigate market risk
by maintaining market exposure from zero to 100 percent. Relatively aggressive
funds may magnify market risk by exceeding 100 percent exposure and, in some
instances, maintain a short exposure. In addition to equities, some funds in
this index may have limited assets invested in other types of securities.
Vanguard's paper
is actually quite academic. It's written by a Ph.D. called Yesim Tokat. Yesim
concludes:
To ensure that
a portfolio's risk and return characteristics remain consistent over time,
a portfolio must be rebalanced. The appropriate rebalancing strategy depends
on a number of factors such as the market environment and asset-class characteristics.
Rebalancing achieves the goal of risk control relative to the target asset
allocation in all market environments. Although market return patterns may
create opportunities for tactical rebalancing, this active strategy is challenging.
Based on reasonable
expectations about return patterns, average returns, risk, and correlations,
we conclude that for most broadly diversified stock and bond fund portfolios,
annual or semiannual monitoring, with rebalancing at 5% thresholds, produces
an acceptable balance between risk control and cost minimization. To the extent
possible, this rebalancing strategy should be carried out by appropriately
redirecting interest income, dividends, new contributions, and withdrawals.
Rebalancing has
obvious pluses. It has obvious costs -- taxes, time and transaction expenses.
Rebalancing is not a panacea. In 2008, the only class that went up was bonds.
My inviolate 15% stop loss worked well in 2008. My 15% Up and Get
Back In Rule worked well in 2009.
My conclusion:
a combination of rebalancing and 15% Rules works the best. I'd include at least
one extra category -- Your Personal Picks. For example, there has to be a space
for those stocks you really like (irrespective of what category they fit into)
-- e.g. Apple, BYDDF, Google, GLD, EWA and EWZ (despite the Brazilian government's
recent creative tax ideas).
Lying
or not? I
don't care if China is lying about its spectacular 8.9% growth in the
third quarter from the same period a year earlier, accelerating from the second
quarter's 7.9% growth rate. It makes me feel good. They buy Caterpillar
tractors, Boeing jets, Intel chips, Microsoft Windows 7 (introduced today) and
other things we still manufacture here in the good old US of A.
Mary
Meeker on the Internet. She's always been the biggest bull on Internet
stocks. Here's her latest slide presentation on what's happening in the world
economy in general and with Internet stocks (and the mobile Internet boom) in
particular. Skip to the last few slides for her conclusions. Click here.
The
website KaChing lets you track others' portfolios: KaChing lets anyone
create and manage a portfolio on the site, and any user can see these portfolios
and track their returns. Unlike other fantasy stock-trading sites, though, with
KaChing you can actually commit money to mirroring another user's portfolio.
For an article on KaChing, click here.
For the actual site, click here.
Thanks for reader Steve Sparrow for this.
100
overseas hotels under $150 a night. Click here.
Latest
on Barnes & Noble's new Nook eReader: Looks better than Amazon's
Kindle. But costs the same. Click here.
Personally, I prefer using the BN Reader and reading books on my ThinkPad
X200 laptop.
Our
civilization is under threat. Here is an an old, but interesting
speech by Geert Wilders -- a European politician worried about threats to our
Western society. Click here.
Gamble
on Iraqi dinars. Cramer apparently likes them. I don't. When it comes
time to cash out, you have to sell them to some larger fool. Here's where to
buy them -- at the Iraqi Dinars Trading
Company. Bruce Tupholme, who runs the operation tells me Iraqi dinars
"have risen about 10% in the last 6 months." He says, "There
are plenty of buyers around in recent months, also."
More
stupid Little Johnny jokes:
+
Little Johnny watched, fascinated, as his mother smoothed cold cream on her
face. 'Why do you do that, mommy?' he asked. 'To make myself beautiful,' said
his mother, who then began removing the cream with a tissue.
'What's the matter?' asked Little Johnny. 'Giving up?'
+ The math teacher
saw that little Johnny wasn't paying attention in class. She called on him and
said, 'Johnny! What are 2 and 4 and 28 and 44?'
Little Johnny quickly replied, 'NBC, FOX, ESPN and the Cartoon Network!'
+ Little Johnny's
kindergarten class was on a field trip to their local police station where they
saw pictures tacked to a bulletin board of the 10 most wanted criminals. One
of the youngsters pointed to a picture and asked if it really was the photo
of a wanted person. 'Yes,' said the policeman. 'The detectives want very badly
to capture him.
Little Johnny asked, " Why didn't you keep him when you took his picture
? "
+ Little Johnny
attended a horse auction with his father. He watched as his father moved from
horse to horse, running his hands up and down the horse's legs and rump, and
chest. After a few minutes, Johnny asked, 'Dad, why are you doing that?' His
father replied, 'Because when I'm buying horses, I have to make sure that they
are healthy and in good shape before I buy.
Johnny, looking worried, said, 'Dad, I think the UPS guy wants to buy Mom ..'

This column is about my personal search
for the perfect investment. I don't give investment advice. For that you have
to be registered with regulatory authorities, which I am not. I am a reporter
and an investor. I make my daily column -- Monday through Friday -- freely available
for three reasons: Writing is good for sorting things out in my brain. Second,
the column is research for a book I'm writing called "In Search of the
Perfect Investment." Third, I encourage my readers to send me their
ideas, concerns and experiences. That way we can all learn together. My email
address is .
You can't click on my email address. You have to re-type it . This protects
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role in choosing the Google ads on this site. Thus I cannot endorse, though
some look interesting. If you click on a link, Google may send me money. Please
note I'm not suggesting you do. That money, if there is any, may help pay Michael's
business school tuition. Read more about Google AdSense, click
here and here.
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