In Search of the Perfect Investment

But it allegedly works — the headline that is. It’s called the Halloween Indicator. This is what Wikipedia writes:

The Halloween indicator is a variant of the stock market adage “Sell in May and go away,” the belief that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger growth on average than the other months. In such strategies, stocks are sold at the start of May and the proceeds held in cash (e.g. a money market fund); stocks are bought again in the autumn, typically around Halloween.

Though this seasonality is often mentioned informally, it has largely been ignored in academic circles (perhaps being assumed to be a mere superstition). Nonetheless analysis by Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) shows that the effect has indeed occurred in 36 out of 37 countries examined, and since the 17th century (1694) in the United Kingdom; it is strongest in Europe. According to the efficient-market hypothesis, this is impossible.

It is not clear what causes the effect.

Most interesting about the effect is that it shows that stock market returns in many countries during the period May-October are systematically negative or lower than the short-term interest rate, which also goes against the efficient-market hypothesis. Stock market returns should not be predictably lower than the short term interest rate (risk free rate).

Popular media often refer to this market wisdom in the month of May, claiming that in the six months to come things will be different and the pattern will not show. However, as the effect has been strongly present in most developed markets (including the United States, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and most European countries) in the last decade – especially May-October 2008 – these claims are often proved wrong.

That said, between April 30 and October 30 2009, the FTSE 100 gained 20% (from 4,189.59 to 5,044.55)

One study which tests the Halloween indicator in US equity markets found similar results as Bouman and Jacobsen (2002) over the same time period but using futures data over the period April 1982- April 2003 and after excluding the years 1987 and 1998 no longer found a significant effect, leading these researchers to conclude that it was not an “exploitable anomaly’ during that time period in the United States.”

The original saying is “Sell in May and go away, stay away till St. Leger Day”, referring to the last race of the British horse racing season, however this day is unlikely to be known by non-Brits so it is replaced by Halloween (which in turn is Samhain, about one-eighth year after the equinox).

This year’s miserable performance. Since May:

Watch the gap and the stairs. Read this carefully:

You’re not getting any younger. You are in danger of falling. You can fall when you get off the train. You can fall when you walk down stairs.

When you fall,  you may hit your hit and end up in hospital for years, or with a metal shunt in your head, or worse, in a wheelchair.

You may destroy your life.

Please be careful. Your reactions are not those of an 18 year old any longer.

Trust me on this one. I have examples of friends  who fell.

My sister and husband are visiting New York. Each day they float down to Times Square to the tkts and buy theater tickets at 50% off.

They’ve done it twice and get great seats both times. Best yet, they saved Ticketmaster’s outrageous $11 a ticket “service fee” for buying tickets online.

Incredibly useful iPhone tricks.  Including

+ Double click on the shift key for caps lock.

+ Hold down some keys for alternatives. Try n.

+ Retart: Hold down sleep (top button) and home, or hold sleep for ten seconds.

+ Get a screenshot. Home and then sleep. Saves the screenshot in your photos.

+ Tap and hold images in Safari to save them to your phone.

+ Spell check. Tap and hold a red underlined word.

Full list, click here.

The U.S. Tennis Open is into its third day. Don’t forget to watch the amazing slow motion videos  on The Beauty of the Power Game.

You can watch the tennis 24/7 on the Tennis Channel, ESPN2 or CBS.  Make sure you’re watching in high-def. The  TV Schedule is here.

Susan and I went to the Open yesterday. Scenes:

Advertisement in subway on way to the Open:

Cookies on sale:

Handsome visitors to the U.S. Open:

What is with tattoos and ear plugs? When they weren’t watching, they were eating. Correction: Many ate while they watched.

This thing is called a Spidercam. It flies all around the stadium. Note the video camera. I think it transmits its images with fiber optics. Amazing technology.

Here’s another photo of it:

For more, Spidercam.net.

Out of Iraq. Not. Our “combat” troops are out of Iraq. But we still have 50,000 “support” troops , plus innumerable outsourced, expensive hangers-on. And now we’re sending more troops to Afghanistan? For what purpose? Tro destroy Al Qaeda? Somebody please tell Washington that Al Qaeda left Afghanistan eons ago.

Harry Newton, who’s sweltering in New York’s 90 degree plus global warming. Or whatever this present heatwave is.