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A recession in manufacturing may already be here. But it’s not the end of the world.

Trump’s never-ending China Trade War is tanking the world’s economy.

Yesterday, the ISM manufacturing index tanked.

CNBC summed it up:

Now, we’ve talked before about the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing survey. It’s a survey of corporate purchasing managers about their business conditions that comes out the first of every month and has a pretty long and pretty decent track record as a leading indicator for the economy.

The latest reading came out at 10 a.m. ET (Tuesday) and it wasn’t pretty. The index fell from 49 in August– which was just below the 50 level that implies the manufacturing sector is in contraction — to 47.8 for September, the lowest reading in a decade. Ouch.

The details were even worse: the employment gauge dropped a point to just over 46, a nearly four-year low; new orders were basically flat at 47; and–and this is crux of it–the export sub-index slid all the way down to 41, also its worst reading since 2009.

As Peter Boockvar, put it: “We’ve tariffed our way into a manufacturing recession.”

But here’s the thing: that’s still no guarantee of an overall downturn. We know why manufacturing is struggling. We know it’s still just 10% of the U.S. economy. We also know the consumer has been incredibly strong throughout all of the trade and tariff headlines this year.

OK. The market is tanking again today. And accelerating its tanking. Most depressing.

Tomorrow ISM will release its more important consumer report, called Non-Manufacturing Data. Last month’s report was buoyant.

As  depressed as I am this morning, I take solace from this ten year chart of S&P 500, compared to the Dow and the Nasdaq. There are blips — sometimes big depressing ones. But ultimately it all does OK — especially NASDAQ, which is green.

Take the long view and go for a walk. Today is not the day to be selling stocks. But you might eye your favorite stocks and see if they’re “on sale.” I bought a few SBUX this morning. And I’m tempted by UNH, which is way down. I can’t see the Democrats actually getting Medicare for all and destroying successful companies like UNH, which Susan and I personally and happily use for supplement insurance on our own Medicare.

Jim Cramer eviscerates Chinese IPOs. 

+ They don’t conform to American securities regulations.

+ They do ultra-poorly.  Cramer instanced 45 IPOs — only six are above water. The rest are all below their closing price on their IPO-day.

I don’t own Chinese stocks. I just don’t trust their reporting.

The last step. Another Don’t Do Stupid warning.

From a reader:

My father walked up four steps to see his wife. He handed her a tax doc, then backed down the four steps, as he had done a thousand times.

On the last one step he fell, shattered his hip. He died later in surgery.

It’s Time to Get Your Flu Shot

If you passed up all those flu shot advertisements way back in August, here’s your friendly reminder — courtesy my wonderful doctor, Jerry Clements.

October is the perfect time to go ahead and get your flu shot.

Leaf peeping time of year

This map is as of October 12. But you can slide the slider under the chart and see other dates here. Useful to plan your car trip. This color is peak: 

Lovely video. The driver did Stupid.

A couple of favorite New Yorker cartoons

The world’s best tomato lady

Her name is Erika Johnson. She lives in West Ghent, Columbia County and she has been providing me with the best tomatoes in the whole world. Thank you, Erika. Her son, Mark, took the nice photo.

What’s the word for urgency?

Back when Spanish singer Julio Iglesias was on UK television with British TV host Anne Diamond. He used the word mañana.

Diamond asked him to explain what it meant. He said the term means: “Maybe the job will be done tomorrow; maybe the next day; maybe the day after that, or perhaps next week, next month, next year. Who really cares?”

The host turned to other guest on the show, Australian country singer, Mudruck Flatlands. She asked him if there was an equivalent term in his home country.

“Nah,” he replied. “In Australia, we don’t have a word to describe that degree of urgency.”

— See you tomorrow. — Harry Newton