No one predicted Covid. No one predicted Delta. No one predicted Omicron. All Black Swan events.
No one predicted that Zoom would explode in 2020 and then crash and burn in 2021, viz:
As I enter the New Year, I can predict:
+ Stock picking has become harder because prices are so damn high. For example, I’d like to buy some Lam Research (LRCX) . But look at the chart. I should have bought it two months ago. At today’s prices, there’s little “Margin of Safety.” (More about that another day.)
+ There will be a crash soon — maybe in the Spring — and I want to have cash to buy bargains. See below.
+ Most everyone (including you and me) in 2022 will get omicron but, if they’re vaccinated and boosted, the infection will be mild. They won’t go to the hospital or die.
+ The Pandemic will continue to mess up the economy — for services like travel and retail. And it will wreak a horrible toll on many. A friend lost his retail business which sold great travel stuff, wrote me “I’m sad to leave a 51 year industry career behind. However if I reach back into any of it at all at this time…. It will just fester what is finally starting to heal.”
+ The Pandemic will mess up the economy in new ways we don’t know yet — but it will create huge opportunities. A friend just bought a gigantic office building for a tenth the cost to replace it. The owner had defaulted on his mortgage. And my friend bought it from the bank who’s happy to sell it to someone with cash enough to pay the mortgage and hang around until the gorgeous building can attract some new tenants. The building is presently 40% empty.
+ Flying is out. Driving is in. There’s a boom in these things and the RV parks to accommodate them.
This is the outside of Entegra Coach’s $690,000 Anthem:
The inside: Two bathrooms. King size bed. Four TVs. Satellite TV with Internet. Microwave. Full washer-dryer. Big residential refrigerator. Italian leather everywhere. An indoor fireplace. Enough power and water for seven days of isolation. Free parking –at any super-Walmart parking lot in the country.
A friend just bought a spot in a gated RV community in Florida and reports he can sell it at 50% more (excerpt he’s not allowed to for three years).
Here’s a video on Cypress Trail RV Resort, Fort Meyers, FL. My friend and his wife and their 45 foot Anthem RV plan to spend January, February and March there in 2022.
+ This year will bring more crypto opportunities — more currencies, more NFTs and more dietary supplements that will do everything from improve my brain to improving my sex drive — both of which desperately improving.
When I left Australia for America back in 1966, my Australian boss said I’d love the Americans because, just like me, they substituted enthusiasm for intelligence. Like believing in stuff we’re sold — from dietary supplements to bitcoin.
I invest in things I understand, which today consists of real estate and stocks. I like to research new opportunities. But they often lead me to “You got to be kidding. No, thank you.” That’s my conclusion with crypto and dietary supplements.
I’ll keep reading and studying. That works.
My 12 largest stock positions are (in order)
+ Apple
+ Amazon
+ Nvidia
+ Tesla
+ Google
+ Generac
+ Cash
+ Palo Alto Networks
+ Microsoft
+ Ford
+ United Health
+ Netflix
Frankly, I’d like to buy more of all of hem. But they’re nosebleed high. Except for maybe Apple and Google.
Why I love Amazon
Amazon has cuts its AWS prices 111 times. That’s one hundred and eleven times.
The Cloud is the great Wealth Creator of our early century. (Microsoft owns Azure.)
Want to learn a little about the Metaverse?
Click here.
Confused at the CDC? Listen to “Dr.” Harry:
1. Don’t go anywhere, especially airports. A fully-vaxed granddaughter of mine just caught it in an airport.
2. If you must go somewhere, wear a mask and keep away from everyone and their uncle.
3. Decline all invitations to weddings, bar mitzvahs, family parties, etc.
4. My friend Todd reports 40 out of 150 who went to a Chicago wedding later tested positive. Over 80 at a wedding of 200 in NY also tested positive.
Inside parties are super-spreaders. Stay home and watch Amazon and Netflix movies.
The good news on LED bulbs
+ Most last forever. Save you falling from ladders.
+ Most save 85% on electricity. Good for your pocketbook.
+ LED bulbs are now cheaper than old-fashioned tungsten or halogen.
+ Only buy 2700K bulbs. The higher Kelvin ones are too bright white.
These videos come from Mensa Tryouts. Priceless and short.
More priceless ideas for the New Year
I’m working on Energy and How to Get it.
For me, the keys are exercise, affording the lifestyle I want to move, napping and flattery.
I choose my friends on the basis of them being intelligent enough to appreciate my flattery — whether justified or not. (Please note: It always is.)
The New Yorker ran a long, convoluted piece on Energy and How to Get It. Click here.
That’s it for today. Send me your keys on getting energy or some new stock picks. — Harry Newton
