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My Activision is up. Everything else is falling. But please don’t sell. This is a short-term downdraft. We are in hugely good shape.

My Activision is up 30% or so.

That’s the good news. The bad news is I only own 100 shares.

We’re going down again today.

I’m not selling, unlike Cathie Wood. But I’m also not buying, since this downdraft is likely to continue. Don’t fight the fed as it drives up treasury yields and starts (soon) to raise interest rates — at least three hikes this year.

If I felt things long-term were bad, I’d pack up and sell everything. But the selling so far is only cutting last year’s paper profits.

I’m supremely optimistic. This downdraft is short-term and stocks will turn around soon. Probably by Spring.

Over 70% of industry is adding workers. Everyone could sell more — if they could deliver. They will when supply chains ease in coming months.

I listened to a long interview with Peter Linneman, who summed up  my feelings:

The U.S. is an attractive place.
If the U.S. could weather all that it’s just gone through and be where it’s at today, I want to be there when it’s not facing all this crazy stuff.

If you sell your good stuff now, you’ll only have to buy it all back later — and you’ll undoubtedly pay a lot more.  That advice doesn’t mean you shouldn’t assess what you own. Was the stock hot for while? But now its economics, opportunities and competitive edge have changed inexorably. A simple example is Peloton. Too much new competition. Ditto for AT&T. Streaming is killing DirecTV and hurting Netflix..  The Chinese stocks — well you know my dislike for them. President Xi has become a regular nut case. And most importantly, I’m really down on financials — like PayPal and most of the banks.

I’m just posting this blog as the market has opened. The only stocks of mine going up are ATVI, DE, CVX and ENB. That’s pretty miserable.

I read massively over the weekend. The Wall Street Journal had a piece titled:

Giant Stock Swings Kick Off 2022
Hundreds of U.S.-listed companies are off more than 20% from highs. Many are in a bear market.

It contained this chart:

The article did not say when the selling would be over. Many of the comments from readers say “Don’t sell.”

You can read the piece here.

Dumb stuff

+. Rebooting everything works.

+ When it doesn’t work, it’s the cable. Keep a drawer-full of spare cables.

+ I love being able to answer my iPhone on my Apple Watch. I wear my watch. I can’t carry my phone everywhere. With the watch I don’t miss important calls.

+ Your Generac emergency generator is magical. But this morning we lost power and Generac didn’t kick in automatically as it’s meant to. I opened it. It has three settings — off, auto and manual. I flipped it to manual. The engine cranked and cranked, but didn’t start. Turned out there was moisture in propane tank line and this grey
thing, called a generator regulator, had frozen. We poured a little hot water on it. It unfrooze and everything started working. Morale of this story: Make sure your generator is on service contract. And always watch what your service technician is doing and ask questions so you can fix it next time.

Once every month, flip the switch to manual. Check that your Generac starts and runs. If it doesn’t start, it may be the battery. It’s a standard car battery. If it has exploded (mine did one), replace it.

No one is interested in my shoulder.

That said, the damn thing has consumed my life. I want a “solution.” A little white pill.

Not to be had. The closest I have is Celecoxib (aka Celebrex). It’s a strong anti-inflammatory. It and the icing I’m doing should solve the inflammation up there in my rotator cuff. The doc says if it doesn’t get better with Celebrex and rest, he’ll do an MRI — we’ve already don’t x-rays and physically checked ut my arm’s movements — they’re pretty good. And maybe a cortisone shot.

I can sell a stock that’s painful. And the pain is gone. I can’t do that  with my shoulder.

The key to long-term health (and playing tennis again) is improved posture, stretching and following some of the boring exercises YouTube is full of. At the same time — no sugar (I’ve already given up salt.). No processed foods. Plenty of rest and exercise.

If you can stomach it, Djokovic’s diet makes huge sense — vegetables, beans, white meat, fish, fruit, nuts, seeds, chickpeas, lentils and healthy oils. He says a prayer before each meal to remind him to appreciate food, eats mindfully – without distractions – and buys organic when possible.

The Novax Djocovid saga 

Lesson for us all:

You are your own worst enemy. Nothing — wars, pandemics, hurricanes, the competition — can shoot yourself better and more accurately than you can.

Take Novax Djokovic. Everyone and their uncle knew Australia’s policy: No vax. No entry.

Djokovic tried to worm and lie his way around the rules and lost. He had a year between Australian tennis Opens to get fully vaccinated — booster and all. He chose not to. Dumb. Really stupid. Hence, he now lost a good shot at winning the first prize of $US 2.875 million, and becoming a tennis legend — winning more grand slams than anyone else in history — including Federer and Nadal.

All because  of one dumb decision. Not to get vaccinated. 93% of Australians are fully vaccinated and don’t feel positive about a wanker.

Not all decisions in life are this obvious. But… it’s why I counsel: Don’t decide now. Mull for a night. You’ll make better decisions.

The Aussies have been brutal.

+ When it comes to tennis, only the Aussies know how to return a Serb.

Inflation is here

I bought these today for $1.79. They used to cost 99 cents.

P.S. They taste as awful as they look.

Favorite recent cartoons

That’s it for now. I’ll go ice my shoulder.

See you tomorrow. — Harry Newton