Skip to content

We have to assume that this downdraft — aka “bursting bubble” — will continue. So, now what? Jolly old England and the pandemic.

It’s down again — for the fifth straight day. But I take solace from this five-year chart:

Nasdaq stocks have taken huge dives before, and recovered quickly.

If you get out now, you’ll be faced with a much more difficult task — getting in when it turns upward (as it will at some time). Perhaps in the next week or so.

Getting out (i.e. selling) is a complex personal decision. It’s all about pain and lifestyle. Do you have a rule that says “When it eats up all the paper profits I see on my brokerage account, I will get out?

Is this eating into savings you’re going to need? Do you have sufficient funds in cash to support your life style for a couple of years? Do you have the time or the patience “to play” this. For example, sell some falling stocks short. For example, I could see selling Tesla short. Maybe Netflix, Zoom, Airbnb. Maybe I’d pick the stocks in your portfolio with the highest P/E — like well over 100. In my portfolio, the stocks are Workday, Gladstone Commercial, ServiceNow, Tesla, Mimecast, Facebook, Salesforce and Trade Desk.

The problem with picking when the market turns is that we don’t know what’s precisely causing it to tank. It’s not like a puncture in your car tire. You can see the problem, pull out the nail, seal the tire and get on your way. No sweat.

There are too many “problems” in the stock market. There are too many uncertainties. We don’t know which is the nail (or if there is only one nail). Future interest rates? The Fed pulling back from injecting cash stimulus. Russia invading Ukraine. Or Germany losing gas from the Russian pipeline that was meant to replace the energy from the nukes it recently closed. (Go figure that stupid decision.) Or Omicron.

I have no idea when this will turn. But I know it will. I am pleased that I did sell stocks I saw in a changed world I didn’t like — e.g. Netflix, Alibaba, PayPal, Zoom, DocuSign, Zoom, Peloton  and the banks.

I’m not bailing on my biggest positions — Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, Ford, United Health and Palo Alto Networks. I still like them. I am worried about Amazon. But I’ll wait for news of earnings in ten days.

Cathie Wood says the selling is “not over.” Remember her job is not to be right about the future. Her job is to get her name out so people will give her money to invest. People who run funds (like Wood) — those you see on BubbleVision giving learned opinions — are in the business of attracting your money to pay for their often-extravagant lifestyles.

It’s always the last step going down

A sad true story:

Harry: Unfortunately, sometimes I hear more than listen. I believe this tendency allowed me to break 3 of your rules at the same time. Yesterday, I was doing stupid (helping my daughter move), while carrying awkward bundles down stairs, and of course misjudged the last step and went sprawling down on the concrete entrance of my daughter’s new apartment building. Fortunately, I hurt mostly my pride – skinning my knees and shins, but sadly the airfryer, amongst the bundles, didn’t do as well as I did. It cracked in two. When I got up I looked and sure enough the last step was a good 2 inches shorter than all the other steps, giving the impression to someone doing stupid and not able to look down, that the stairs had ended one step too soon. I credit my lack of serious injuries to the number of times I have gone down over the years while running. You learn to roll with the fall. But my usual run today was a little slower and my knees were barking at me. Stephen.

A second sad true story:

He didn’t look both ways long or hard enough and she crashed into his car. He’s got two busted ribs and is in pain. My rule is stop, look to the right, look to the left, look to the right and to the left. Twice. Then move.

I made a little graphic using a piece of software I’d heard good things about, Try it for free Click here.

I promise not to quit my day job and become a graphics designer.

Carvana actually works

My friend sold his car to them. They came by, picked up the car and gave him a check. There and then.

Later his wife bought a car from Carvana. Here’s them delivering it:

She’s very happy with her car. Fortunately, she didn’t buy stock in the company. Here’s the last six months:

The company’s sales are growing dramatically, but it’s still losing money:

This morning’s headline on CNBC: Morgan Stanley is sticking with Carvana, calls stock the ‘apex predator of auto retail.’ Whatever that means.

In Jolly Old England, they made rules for  covid:

+  “No butterfly stroke allowed while swimming.”

+ “My bed-ridden mother-in-law with dementia in a care home where only `window visits’ were allowed. Mum was on the first floor. Had to wait for someone to die on the ground floor so she could be moved down there and finally seen by her family. After 12 months.”

+ “People falling down the escalator on the Underground (the London subway) because they were frightened of touching the handrails — even though you can’t get Covid from surfaces.”

+ “On two occasions, I was stopped and questioned while taking flowers to my mother’s grave. One time, a police officer even asked for my mum’s name. No idea what he would have done with that information.”

+ “Sign on the inside of work bathroom door: Close toilet lid before flushing to prevent plumes of Covid-19.”

+ And the final absurdity. At one stage England actually banned “casual sex” because of covid.

I figured the last one needed more research. I went to Google: “Is casual sex normal in UK?”
Answer, said Google: “British men and women are among the world’s most promiscuous, an international survey of sexual behaviour and attitudes has found.”

I hate watching the Australian Tennis Open

It makes me want to get on the court and try all the new shots. But my shoulder still hurts.
I miss Xena, Mark’s dog. She’s trained to stay at the net and watch us play.

She’s a good dog. She’s never once commented on my unforced mistakes, though she had plenty of chances.

The Open is ESPN2 and The Tennis Channel. Melbourne is 16 hours ahead of New York. It’s 3 AM New York time and 18 degrees, as I write this. In Melbourne, it’s 7:00 PM and 90 degrees, It would be nice to be warm and to be there. I went out this morning. it was minus 5 Fahrenheit. Cold.

Something went wrong with my main laptop this morning. I switched to another machine that I had made identical. Laptops are so cheap these days, it’s good to have a backup. I’ll now post this blog and go find the “nail” in my main machine. Such fun.

See you tomorrow. — Harry Newton