In “The Art of the Deal,” the “deal” was the goal — irrespective of its outcome. i.e. who it benefitted or who didn’t.
The deal’s goal is to flaunt strength. The dealer should benefit somehow, if only by the theatrics. Think The Apprentice.”
As Trump said, they’re lining up to kiss my ass.
As they line up, Trump has discovered a new benefit. They’ll pay to kiss his ass. They used to pay through bills at his Washington hotel. Now there’s everything from a $500,000 joining fee special club for secret audiences with Trump and his people. And there World Liberty Financial, a crypto company that Trump formed to sell digital coins and for which he gets 75% of the net. He clearly knows who paid. (Not me. Way beyond my whimpy net worth.)
The only “logic” to tariffs is the opportunity for more deals, for more ass-kissing and for more money in Trump’s pocket. For more, click here.
There’s a reason there’s only one economist in the entire world in favor of tariffs. That’s because they are universally destructive of wealth. There are countries that do egregiously violate fair trade, e.g. China. There are even ways of securing a fairer solution — like the WTO (the World Trade Organization) and direct negations.
Today America has a 145% tariff on anything coming in from China — including my new laptop. That 145% has effectively killed (or soon will kill) an enormous number of US businesses. It will kill demand for Nike shoes and Apple iPhones (and my new laptop) and seriously mess up manufacturing businesses in the US, who rely on parts from China.
How would you like to pay $145,000 extra for a container of $100,000 of Chinese made toys — only to find out a month from now that the tariff was dropped to, say 25% and you’re not getting a refund of the $120,000 you overpaid on last month’s tariff.
The only constant in this world is uncertainty — inflicted on us by one man.
Uncertainty leads to consumers and businesses pulling back. Which leads to a contracting economy and lots of pleasing theatrics — like all those factories returning to America. Maybe. This is boomtime for public relations, and fake news.
My day job is picking stocks for my erstwhile declining portfolio. Because I’m a creature of heady and euphoric emotions on some days (like today) and fear and loathing on other days, like Liberation Day, I tend to make stupid decisions.
As Warren Buffett is alleged to have said (but didn’t), “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
When things were gloomy and I could see no good future for Trump’s “management” , I recommended going to 100% cash. Then it rebounded and I’m now about 70% in cash — In my 30% I remain a tech investor, owning my old favorites — AMZN, AVGO, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NFLX, and NVDA. I added some new ones — IBM, CRWD and SPOT.
I’ve been looking — with not much luck. I don’t like energy, because oil has fallen, reflecting a weakening economy. I don’t like companies that are in the la-la land of tariffs. supply chain concerns, and the whim of a tight consumer, like housing.
Economists like to talk about two “indicators” — anecdotal and statistical.
Anecdotal means Las Vegas is short of Canadians and West Coast ports are receiving fewer container ships with China stuff.
Statistical means numbers like consumer confidence and official employment numbers.
Anecdotal are weak. Small database.
Statistics show what went on several months ago.
Right now we’re flying pretty blind. Which is why we’re happy for a day like today (Thursday May 1) when ebullient earnings from MSFT and META have buoyed things — though no one predicted their number s (least of all – me.)
My entire present portfolio is in the third column on my web site.
My guess is that it can only get better from here. China’s 145% is unsustainable, and can only come down. Ditto for many of the others….
Fingers crossed.
AI is the present rage. Here are two insights
From Jerry Seinfeld:
From Elon Musk:
For Elon, click here.
Great Search Engines
All these are better than Google’s Chrome or Apple’s Safari. My favorite is Perplexity, which I actually pay money to.
Points:
+ They’re all out of date.
+ They all will feed you nonsense. They call it “hallucinations.”
+ They’re all different. Some can produce superb images and great animations.
+ In general, they’re all unbelievably useful. Go play.Enjoy.
Slate Auto is a fantastic idea.
I want one, Just $20,000 for a new EV.
Favorite YouTubes
Headsup
+ Friday morning (tomorrow morning) at 8:30 AM is Jobs Report. Most important monthly economic report.
+ Saturday is Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting, broadcast and streamed on CNBC. You can read Berkshire annual report, with Warren’s insightful letter to his shareholders. It’s here.
Bradford Pear trees in full bloom in Columbia County, NY. Planted in 1997. Photographed yesterday by yours truly on his iPhone 16 pro.
It’s nice up here. See you soon. — Harry Newton
