{"id":10250,"date":"2011-11-22T09:03:22","date_gmt":"2011-11-22T14:03:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=10250"},"modified":"2011-11-22T11:05:42","modified_gmt":"2011-11-22T16:05:42","slug":"the-year-we-lowered-our-expectations-and-changed-many-of-our-assumptions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=10250","title":{"rendered":"The year we lowered our expectations. And changed many of our assumptions."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">When I sold the business in the late 1990s, a money manager pitched me a way to live a happy life by making 10% virtually tax-free\u00a0 for the rest of the my life. I give him my money. He invests it. We earn 12% to 15% each year. We &#8220;harvest&#8221; gains of 10% by selling those stocks that risen, and keep the 5% for reinvestment. Hence never any ordinary income.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There was only one problem. It never happened. There was the dot.com bust in 2001-2002 and by the time the\u00a0 decade of 2000 to 2010 had passed, equities had gone nowhere. Most money managers were staring into the abyss. and my wonderful retirement investment strategy had gone down in flames.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I wasn&#8217;t the only dummy who couldn&#8217;t predict the future. Every pension and superannuation fund made predictions of at least 8% and made promises to their retirees based on what was then a reasonable prediction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The brain fights\u00a0 old, comfortable assumptions. I fought the 10% assumption for years.\u00a0 It was such a wonderfully simple, easy life choice.\u00a0 When I saw the money managers couldn&#8217;t deliver it, I sought out my own fantastical schemes &#8212; real estate syndications to distress debt funds to private equity to\u00a0 leveraged buyout funds to biotech startups that could cure cancer .<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Today, Thanksgiving 2011, I&#8217;ve reconciled myself to being joyful with my new normal. If I can get 5% from now on. I&#8217;ll give thanks. Hence my love for bonds and bond-like thing. Yesterday I talked about two Vanguard funds. One of them actually pays the equivalent of nearly 7% pre-tax.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This morning Credit Suisse issued a report called &#8220;<em>Stock Selection for the Long Run<\/em>.&#8221; Their stocks had done well &#8212; better than the S&amp;P 500. Then I came across this delicious chart:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/PortfolioPerformance.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10262\" title=\"PortfolioPerformance\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/PortfolioPerformance.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"710\" height=\"430\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/PortfolioPerformance.jpg 710w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/PortfolioPerformance-300x181.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 710px) 100vw, 710px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I thought to myself: Who knew that August lows were the low point? I certainly didn&#8217;t.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I can&#8217;t time this. No one can.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I want to give Thanks for peace and quiet. I don&#8217;t want to craze over my computer screens, which show crazy movements I can&#8217;t predict, or worse understand.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">That&#8217;s my Thanksgiving Day lecture. I&#8217;m taking Susan, Michael and Anne to the Boulders in Carefree, Arizona for Thanksgiving.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The next column you&#8217;ll read will be next Monday, November 28. This place better live up to its name as being &#8220;care free.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Whoever expected a committee of politicians to make a decision was smoking something. <\/strong><\/span>Even if you call it &#8220;super.&#8221;Washington had an assumption (aka bug up its ass) about cutting the budget. Robert Reich wrote a piece on what Congress should be doing. It&#8217;s very hard to disagree with him.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><strong>Budget cuts aren&#8217;t the answer. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The biggest question right now on Planet Washington is whether the congressional supercommittee will reach an agreement.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">That\u2019s the wrong question. Agreement or not, Washington is on the road to making budget cuts that will slow the economy, increase unemployment and impose additional hardship on millions of Americans.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The real question is how to stop this austerity train wreck, and substitute the following:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">FIRST: No cuts before jobs are back \u2013 until unemployment is down to 5 percent. Until then, the economy needs a boost, not a cut. Consumers \u2013 whose spending is 70 percent of the economy \u2013 don\u2019t have the money to boost the economy on their own. Their pay is dropping and they\u2019re losing jobs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">SECOND: Make the boost big enough. 14 million Americans are out of work, and 10 million are working part time who need full-time jobs. The President\u2019s proposed jobs program is a start but it\u2019s tiny relative to what needs to be done. It would create fewer than 2 million jobs. We need a big jobs program \u2013 rebuilding America\u2019s crumbling infrastructure, and including a WPA and Civilian Conservation Corps.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">THIRD: To pay for this, raise taxes on the super-rich. It\u2019s only fair. Never before has so much income and wealth been concentrated at the very top, and taxes on the top so low. Go back to the 70 percent marginal tax we had before 1980. And include more tax brackets at the top. It doesn\u2019t make sense that any income over $375,000 is taxed at the same 35 percent, even if it\u2019s a billion dollars. And tax all sources of income at the same rate, including capital gains.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">FOURTH: Cut the budget where the real bloat is. Military spending and corporate welfare. End weapons systems that don\u2019t work and stop wars we shouldn\u2019t be fighting to begin with, and we save over $300 billion a year. Cut corporate welfare \u2013 subsidies and special tax breaks going to big agribusiness, big oil, big pharma, and big insurance \u2013 and we save another $100 billion.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Do you hear me, Washington? Do these four things and restore jobs and prosperity. Fail to do these, and you\u2019ll make things much, much worse.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Generally, I don&#8217;t like Robert Reich. But he does make sense in this simple article.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Annaly gets slammed and Cramer issues a dire prediction. <\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I&#8217;ve never heard Cramer be more pessimistic. The world almost ended last night. He and I both expect a major one-day hit to the stockmarket. Hence, he and I don&#8217;t like equities. We both like gold, but it&#8217;s taken a huge hit in recent weeks. It takes major faith to be still holding on. It dropped big-time yesterday.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Annaly and the mortgage REITs are coming in for continuing bad press (most of it undeserved in my opinion). Latest: today&#8217;s Wall Street report on one analyst&#8217;s report. &#8220;<em>Scathing Report On Annaly Capital Shocks Some On Wall Street<\/em>.&#8221; Click <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/marketbeat\/2011\/11\/18\/annaly-cantor-analyst-gets-creative-with-his-criticism\/?KEYWORDS=scathing+report+on+annaly\" target=\"_blank\"><strong><\/strong><\/a><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/marketbeat\/2011\/11\/18\/annaly-cantor-analyst-gets-creative-with-his-criticism\/?KEYWORDS=annaly+scathing\" target=\"_blank\">here.<\/a> <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Currency Wars &#8212; an excellent interview on PBS.<\/strong> J<span style=\"color: #000000;\">ames Rickards<\/span> <\/span><\/span><\/span> untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and  arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more  informed and effective course of action.<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong> <\/strong>It&#8217;s 21 minutes. You can listen to it on your laptop, or download it and listen to it on your iPod. Click<strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wnyc.org\/shows\/lopate\/2011\/nov\/17\/currency-wars\/\" target=\"_blank\">here.<\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>For God&#8217;s sake. <\/strong><\/span>Put a signature block at the bottom of your emails. Include\u00a0 your phone numbers, your address, your web site, your title, the correct spelling of your company, etc.\u00a0 Don&#8217;t make your customers and friends search the web for your address.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Latest best New Yorker cartoons:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/siphon.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10252\" title=\"siphon\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/siphon.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"554\" height=\"441\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/siphon.jpg 554w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/siphon-300x238.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 554px) 100vw, 554px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/OneBee.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10253\" title=\"OneBee\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/OneBee.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"552\" height=\"630\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/OneBee.jpg 552w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/OneBee-262x300.jpg 262w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 552px) 100vw, 552px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/BlindCCS.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-10254\" title=\"BlindCCS\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/BlindCCS.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"541\" height=\"416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/BlindCCS.jpg 541w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/BlindCCS-300x230.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 541px) 100vw, 541px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>I miss real family restaurants.<\/strong><\/span> At a diner about two hours north of New York City, you&#8217;re greeted by two wonderful signs:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Above the front door: &#8220;We&#8217;ll be open until we close.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Above the stove is a sign &#8220;I kiss better than I cook.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"HarryNewtonNewShot\" src=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"125\" height=\"180\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Harry Newton who cautions against the explosion of spam. Latest is from &#8220;The Electronic Payments Association&#8221; telling me that my bank transfer was rejected. If I want more information, I click on the link and bingo my computer will be full of viruses, malware and other nasties. Don&#8217;t click on links. Don&#8217;t open email attachments. Our 90-year old guest last night was bitching about some &#8220;Bulgarian&#8221; who stole $150 from his credit card account. I estimate I&#8217;m getting <strong>five<\/strong> times as many spam emails as I am getting legitimate ones. Most are financial, very few\u00a0 penis enlargement ones. I guess they&#8217;ve given up on me.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If your IT department forces you to use &#8220;The Cloud,&#8221; make sure you save constantly. I lost half today&#8217;s column because of an Internet\u00a0 &#8220;glitch.&#8221; Or was it my typing? It would never have happened in the old, pre-Cloud days.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>When I sold the business in the late 1990s, a money manager pitched me a way to live a happy life by making 10% virtually tax-free\u00a0 for the rest of the my life. I give him my money. He invests it. We earn 12% to 15% each year. We &#8220;harvest&#8221; gains of 10% by selling [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10250\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}