{"id":12,"date":"2009-12-28T09:41:02","date_gmt":"2009-12-28T14:41:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wordpress\/?p=12"},"modified":"2009-12-29T00:01:12","modified_gmt":"2009-12-29T05:01:12","slug":"simple-ways-to-arrange-your-portfolio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=12","title":{"rendered":"Simple Ways to Arrange your Portfolio"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">For the next  few days we&#8217;ll focus on simple ways to arrange your portfolio. There&#8217;ll be two  elements &#8212; investing overseas and a relatively broad allocation of low cost index  funds. Meantime, this chart is instructive. Notice the huge returns so far in  BRIC and emerging markets. But also check out the widely varying returns among  commodities. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<table style=\"text-align: left;\" border=\"1\" width=\"100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong>Index<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong>Year          to date (December 24, 2009)<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">S&amp;P GSCI*<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">11.58%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">S&amp;P GSCI        Industrial Metals<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">79.08%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">S&amp;P GSCI        Agriculture<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">1.97%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">S&amp;P GSCI        Livestock<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">-15.88%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong>S&amp;P        500 total returns<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong>27.70%<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">S&amp;P Information        Technology<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">60.76%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">S&amp;P Healthcare<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">18.29%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">S&amp;P \/        ASX 200 (78% of Australian equity market capitalization)<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">34.79%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">MSCI Emerging        Markets **<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">71.80%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">MSCI BRIC<\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">85.92%<\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr bgcolor=\"#ffff99\">\n<td><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong>Dow Jones        Industrial Average<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<td>\n<div style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong>19.87%<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">* The S&amp;P    GSCI is a leading measure of general price movements and inflation in the world    commodity markets, It is designed to be a \u201ctradable\u201d index. The index    is calculated primarily on a world production-weighted basis and is comprised    of the principal physical commodities that are the subject of active, liquid    futures markets. S&amp;P GSCI indexes are found <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.standardandpoors.com\/indices\/sp-gsci\/en\/us\/?indexId=spgscirg--usd----sp------\" target=\"_blank\">here.<\/a> <\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 indexes are found <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.standardandpoors.com\/indices\/sp-500\/en\/us\/?indexId=spusa-500-usduf--p-us-l--\" target=\"_blank\">here.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">**As of end November,    2009. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization    index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets.    As of June 2009 the MSCI Emerging Markets Index consisted of the following 22    emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic,    Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Israel, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco,    Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey.    More on Emerging Markets performance, click <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.mscibarra.com\/products\/indices\/international_equity_indices\/gimi\/stdindex\/performance.html\">here.<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Useful    Windows Tips<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\nToggle between apps: <strong>Alt-Tab<\/strong> to switch between open programs. . <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"> Ctrl-Tab to cycle    through an application&#8217;s windows (or through a Web browser&#8217;s tabs). <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Be    ultra-wary of Wall Street&#8217;s manufactured products. <\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Wall    Street is a product machine. It makes financial products which it tries to sell.    If it sells them it makes a fee and keeps selling them until &#8212; typically &#8212;    the product is proven valueless. Then it moves onto another product. Sometimes    it sells products which it believes are toxic, and actually bets against its    customers. Its customers lose. Wall Street wins. Howard Marks, head of Oaktree,    wrote about this earlier this year. And I quoted him extensively in my <strong><a href=\"..\/..\/2009\/July13-09.php\" target=\"_blank\">July    13<\/a><\/strong> column. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; color: #000000;\">Now    comes this weekend&#8217;s article from two New York Times&#8217; excellent financial reporters    Gretchen Morgenson and Louise Story. Though this is long, it&#8217;s super instructive:<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"text-align: left;\"><p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong>Banks Bundled      Bad Debt, Bet Against It and Won<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">In late October      2007, as the financial markets were starting to come unglued, a Goldman Sachs      trader, Jonathan M. Egol, received very good news. At 37, he was named a managing      director at the firm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Mr. Egol, a      Princeton graduate, had risen to prominence inside the bank by creating mortgage-related      securities, named Abacus, that were at first intended to protect Goldman from      investment losses if the housing market collapsed. As the market soured, Goldman      created even more of these securities, enabling it to pocket huge profits.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Goldman\u2019s      own clients who bought them, however, were less fortunate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Pension funds      and insurance companies lost billions of dollars on securities that they believed      were solid investments, according to former Goldman employees with direct      knowledge of the deals who asked not to be identified because they have confidentiality      agreements with the firm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Goldman was      not the only firm that peddled these complex securities \u2014 known as synthetic      collateralized debt obligations, or C.D.O.\u2019s \u2014 and then made financial      bets against them, called selling short in Wall Street parlance. Others that      created similar securities and then bet they would fail, according to Wall      Street traders, include Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, as well as smaller      firms like Tricadia Inc., an investment company whose parent firm was overseen      by Lewis A. Sachs, who this year became a special counselor to Treasury Secretary      Timothy F. Geithner.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">How these disastrously      performing securities were devised is now the subject of scrutiny by investigators      in Congress, at the Securities and Exchange Commission and at the Financial      Industry Regulatory Authority, Wall Street\u2019s self-regulatory organization,      according to people briefed on the investigations. Those involved with the      inquiries declined to comment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">While the investigations      are in the early phases, authorities appear to be looking at whether securities      laws or rules of fair dealing were violated by firms that created and sold      these mortgage-linked debt instruments and then bet against the clients who      purchased them, people briefed on the matter say.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">One focus of      the inquiry is whether the firms creating the securities purposely helped      to select especially risky mortgage-linked assets that would be most likely      to crater, setting their clients up to lose billions of dollars if the housing      market imploded.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Some securities      packaged by Goldman and Tricadia ended up being so vulnerable that they soured      within months of being created.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Goldman and      other Wall Street firms maintain there is nothing improper about synthetic      C.D.O.\u2019s, saying that they typically employ many trading techniques to      hedge investments and protect against losses. They add that many prudent investors      often do the same. Goldman used these securities initially to offset any potential      losses stemming from its positive bets on mortgage securities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">But Goldman      and other firms eventually used the C.D.O.\u2019s to place unusually large      negative bets that were not mainly for hedging purposes, and investors and      industry experts say that put the firms at odds with their own clients\u2019      interests.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">\u201cThe simultaneous      selling of securities to customers and shorting them because they believed      they were going to default is the most cynical use of credit information that      I have ever seen,\u201d said Sylvain R. Raynes, an expert in structured finance      at R &amp; R Consulting in New York. \u201cWhen you buy protection against      an event that you have a hand in causing, you are buying fire insurance on      someone else\u2019s house and then committing arson.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Investment banks      were not alone in reaping rich rewards by placing trades against synthetic      C.D.O.\u2019s. Some hedge funds also benefited, including Paulson &amp; Company,      according to former Goldman workers and people at other banks familiar with      that firm\u2019s trading.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Michael DuVally,      a Goldman Sachs spokesman, declined to make Mr. Egol available for comment.      But Mr. DuVally said many of the C.D.O.\u2019s created by Wall Street were      made to satisfy client demand for such products, which the clients thought      would produce profits because they had an optimistic view of the housing market.      In addition, he said that clients knew Goldman might be betting against mortgages      linked to the securities, and that the buyers of synthetic mortgage C.D.O.\u2019s      were large, sophisticated investors, he said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">The creation      and sale of synthetic C.D.O.\u2019s helped make the financial crisis worse      than it might otherwise have been, effectively multiplying losses by providing      more securities to bet against. Some $8 billion in these securities remain      on the books at American International Group, the giant insurer rescued by      the government in September 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">From 2005 through      2007, at least $108 billion in these securities was issued, according to Dealogic,      a financial data firm. And the actual volume was much higher because synthetic      C.D.O.\u2019s and other customized trades are unregulated and often not reported      to any financial exchange or market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Goldman Saw      It Coming<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Before the financial      crisis, many investors \u2014 large American and European banks, pension funds,      insurance companies and even some hedge funds \u2014 failed to recognize that      overextended borrowers would default on their mortgages, and they kept increasing      their investments in mortgage-related securities. As the mortgage market collapsed,      they suffered steep losses.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">A handful of      investors and Wall Street traders, however, anticipated the crisis. In 2006,      Wall Street had introduced a new index, called the ABX, that became a way      to invest in the direction of mortgage securities. The index allowed traders      to bet on or against pools of mortgages with different risk characteristics,      just as stock indexes enable traders to bet on whether the overall stock market,      or technology stocks or bank stocks, will go up or down.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Goldman, among      others on Wall Street, has said since the collapse that it made big money      by using the ABX to bet against the housing market. Worried about a housing      bubble, top Goldman executives decided in December 2006 to change the firm\u2019s      overall stance on the mortgage market, from positive to negative, though it      did not disclose that publicly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Even before      then, however, pockets of the investment bank had also started using C.D.O.\u2019s      to place bets against mortgage securities, in some cases to hedge the firm\u2019s      mortgage investments, as protection against a fall in housing prices and an      increase in defaults.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Mr. Egol was      a prime mover behind these securities. Beginning in 2004, with housing prices      soaring and the mortgage mania in full swing, Mr. Egol began creating the      deals known as Abacus. From 2004 to 2008, Goldman issued 25 Abacus deals,      according to Bloomberg, with a total value of $10.9 billion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Abacus allowed      investors to bet for or against the mortgage securities that were linked to      the deal. The C.D.O.\u2019s didn\u2019t contain actual mortgages. Instead,      they consisted of credit-default swaps, a type of insurance that pays out      when a borrower defaults. These swaps made it much easier to place large bets      on mortgage failures.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Rather than      persuading his customers to make negative bets on Abacus, Mr. Egol kept most      of these wagers for his firm, said five former Goldman employees who spoke      on the condition of anonymity. On occasion, he allowed some hedge funds to      take some of the short trades.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Mr. Egol and      Fabrice Tourre, a French trader at Goldman, were aggressive from the start      in trying to make the assets in Abacus deals look better than they were, according      to notes taken by a Wall Street investor during a phone call with Mr. Tourre      and another Goldman employee in May 2005.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">On the call,      the two traders noted that they were trying to persuade analysts at Moody\u2019s      Investors Service, a credit rating agency, to assign a higher rating to one      part of an Abacus C.D.O. but were having trouble, according to the investor\u2019s      notes, which were provided by a colleague who asked for anonymity because      he was not authorized to release them. Goldman declined to discuss the selection      of the assets in the C.D.O.\u2019s, but a spokesman said investors could have      rejected the C.D.O. if they did not like the assets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Goldman\u2019s      bets against the performances of the Abacus C.D.O.\u2019s were not worth much      in 2005 and 2006, but they soared in value in 2007 and 2008 when the mortgage      market collapsed. The trades gave Mr. Egol a higher profile at the bank, and      he was among a group promoted to managing director on Oct. 24, 2007.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">\u201cEgol and      Fabrice were way ahead of their time,\u201d said one of the former Goldman      workers. \u201cThey saw the writing on the wall in this market as early as      2005.\u201d By creating the Abacus C.D.O.\u2019s, they helped protect Goldman      against losses that others would suffer.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">As early as      the summer of 2006, Goldman\u2019s sales desk began marketing short bets using      the ABX index to hedge funds like Paulson &amp; Company, Magnetar and Soros      Fund Management, which invests for the billionaire George Soros. John Paulson,      the founder of Paulson &amp; Company, also would later take some of the shorts      from the Abacus deals, helping him profit when mortgage bonds collapsed. He      declined to comment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">A Deal Gone      Bad, for Some<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">The woeful performance      of some C.D.O.\u2019s issued by Goldman made them ideal for betting against.      As of September 2007, for example, just five months after Goldman had sold      a new Abacus C.D.O., the ratings on 84 percent of the mortgages underlying      it had been downgraded, indicating growing concerns about borrowers\u2019      ability to repay the loans, according to research from UBS, the big Swiss      bank. Of more than 500 C.D.O.\u2019s analyzed by UBS, only two were worse      than the Abacus deal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Goldman created      other mortgage-linked C.D.O.\u2019s that performed poorly, too. One, in October      2006, was a $800 million C.D.O. known as Hudson Mezzanine. It included credit      insurance on mortgage and subprime mortgage bonds that were in the ABX index;      Hudson buyers would make money if the housing market stayed healthy \u2014      but lose money if it collapsed. Goldman kept a significant amount of the financial      bets against securities in Hudson, so it would profit if they failed, according      to three of the former Goldman employees.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">A Goldman salesman      involved in Hudson said the deal was one of the earliest in which outside      investors raised questions about Goldman\u2019s incentives. \u201cHere we      are selling this, but we think the market is going the other way,\u201d he      said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">A hedge fund      investor in Hudson, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said that because      Goldman was betting against the deal, he wondered whether the bank built Hudson      with \u201cbonds they really think are going to get into trouble.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Indeed, Hudson      investors suffered large losses. In March 2008, just 18 months after Goldman      created that C.D.O., so many borrowers had defaulted that holders of the security      paid out about $310 million to Goldman and others who had bet against it,      according to correspondence sent to Hudson investors.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">The Goldman      salesman said that C.D.O. buyers were not misled because they were advised      that Goldman was placing large bets against the securities. \u201cWe were      very open with all the risks that we thought we sold. When you\u2019re facing      a tidal wave of people who want to invest, it\u2019s hard to stop them,\u201d      he said. The salesman added that investors could have placed bets against      Abacus and similar C.D.O.\u2019s if they had wanted to.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">A Goldman spokesman      said the firm\u2019s negative bets didn\u2019t keep it from suffering losses      on its mortgage assets, taking $1.7 billion in write-downs on them in 2008;      but he would not say how much the bank had since earned on its short positions,      which former Goldman workers say will be far more lucrative over time. For      instance, Goldman profited to the tune of $1.5 billion from one series of      mortgage-related trades by Mr. Egol with Wall Street rival Morgan Stanley,      which had to book a steep loss, according to people at both firms.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Tetsuya Ishikawa,      a salesman on several Abacus and Hudson deals, left Goldman and later published      a novel, \u201cHow I Caused the Credit Crunch.\u201d In it, he wrote that      bankers deserted their clients who had bought mortgage bonds when that market      collapsed: \u201cWe had moved on to hurting others in our quest for self-preservation.\u201d      Mr. Ishikawa, who now works for another financial firm in London, declined      to comment on his work at Goldman.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Profits From      a Collapse<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Just as synthetic      C.D.O.\u2019s began growing rapidly, some Wall Street banks pushed for technical      modifications governing how they worked in ways that made it possible for      C.D.O.\u2019s to expand even faster, and also tilted the playing field in      favor of banks and hedge funds that bet against C.D.O.\u2019s, according to      investors.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">In early 2005,      a group of prominent traders met at Deutsche Bank\u2019s office in New York      and drew up a new system, called Pay as You Go. This meant the insurance for      those betting against mortgages would pay out more quickly. The traders then      went to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, the group that      governs trading in derivatives like C.D.O.\u2019s. The new system was presented      as a fait accompli, and adopted.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Other changes      also increased the likelihood that investors would suffer losses if the mortgage      market tanked. Previously, investors took losses only in certain dire \u201ccredit      events,\u201d as when the mortgages associated with the C.D.O. defaulted or      their issuers went bankrupt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">But the new      rules meant that C.D.O. holders would have to make payments to short sellers      under less onerous outcomes, or \u201ctriggers,\u201d like a ratings downgrade      on a bond. This meant that anyone who bet against a C.D.O. could collect on      the bet more easily.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">\u201cIn the      early deals you see none of these triggers,\u201d said one investor who asked      for anonymity to preserve relationships. \u201cThese things were built in      to provide the dealers with a big payoff when something bad happened.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Banks also set      up ever more complex deals that favored those betting against C.D.O.\u2019s.      Morgan Stanley established a series of C.D.O.\u2019s named after United States      presidents (Buchanan and Jackson) with an unusual feature: short-sellers could      lock in very cheap bets against mortgages, even beyond the life of the mortgage      bonds. It was akin to allowing someone paying a low insurance premium for      coverage on one automobile to pay the same on another one even if premiums      over all had increased because of high accident rates.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">At Goldman,      Mr. Egol structured some Abacus deals in a way that enabled those betting      on a mortgage-market collapse to multiply the value of their bets, to as much      as six or seven times the face value of those C.D.O.\u2019s. When the mortgage      market tumbled, this meant bigger profits for Goldman and other short sellers      \u2014 and bigger losses for other investors.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Selling Bad      Debt<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Other Wall Street      firms also created risky mortgage-related securities that they bet against.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">At Deutsche      Bank, the point man on betting against the mortgage market was Greg Lippmann,      a trader. Mr. Lippmann made his pitch to select hedge fund clients, arguing      they should short the mortgage market. He sometimes distributed a T-shirt      that read \u201cI\u2019m Short Your House!!!\u201d in black and red letters.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Deutsche, which      declined to comment, at the same time was selling synthetic C.D.O.\u2019s      to its clients, and those deals created more short-selling opportunities for      traders like Mr. Lippmann.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Among the most      aggressive C.D.O. creators was Tricadia, a management company that was a unit      of Mariner Investment Group. Until he became a senior adviser to the Treasury      secretary early this year, Lewis Sachs was Mariner\u2019s vice chairman. Mr.      Sachs oversaw about 20 portfolios there, including Tricadia, and its documents      also show that Mr. Sachs sat atop the firm\u2019s C.D.O. management committee.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">From 2003 to      2007, Tricadia issued 14 mortgage-linked C.D.O.\u2019s, which it called TABS.      Even when the market was starting to implode, Tricadia continued to create      TABS deals in early 2007 to sell to investors. The deal documents referring      to conflicts of interest stated that affiliates and clients of Tricadia might      place bets against the types of securities in the TABS deal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Even so, the      sales material also boasted that the mortgages linked to C.D.O.\u2019s had      historically low default rates, citing a \u201crecently completed\u201d study      by Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s ratings agency \u2014 though fine print indicated      that the date of the study was September 2002, almost five years earlier.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">At a financial      symposium in New York in September 2006, Michael Barnes, the co-head of Tricadia,      described how a hedge fund could put on a negative mortgage bet by shorting      assets to C.D.O. investors, according to his presentation, which was reviewed      by The New York Times.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Mr. Barnes declined      to comment. James E. McKee, general counsel at Tricadia, said, \u201cTricadia      has never shorted assets into the TABS deals, and Tricadia has always acted      in the best interests of its clients and investors.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Mr. Sachs, through      a spokesman at the Treasury Department, declined to comment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Like investors      in some of Goldman\u2019s Abacus deals, buyers of some TABS experienced heavy      losses. By the end of 2007, UBS research showed that two TABS deals were the      eighth- and ninth-worst performing C.D.O.\u2019s. Both had been downgraded      on at least 75 percent of their associated assets within a year of being issued.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Tricadia\u2019s      hedge fund did far better, earning roughly a 50 percent return in 2007 and      similar profits in 2008, in part from the short bets.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">I    visit Greenwich, CT. <\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">On Sunday, I attended    a funeral for a classmate, who was younger., Driving through Greenwich, I was    awed by the single family houses. My favorite:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"..\/..\/images\/GreenwichHome.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"300\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>As I was photographing it, a lady was walking by. I asked her, &#8220;Could she    please direct me to the REALLY BIG houses in Greenwich?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">She answered,    &#8220;This is about as big as it gets.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">Then she opened    the heavy metal gate and walked up the driveway. Her parting words, &#8220;Wanna    buy it?&#8221; <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">I didn&#8217;t have    a chance to ask, &#8220;How much?&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Please    die in 2010. <\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">There&#8217;s no federal estate tax.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Time to get your affairs in order.<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span>The doctor sighed and said, &#8216;I&#8217;ve got some bad news. You have    cancer, and you&#8217;d best put your affairs in order.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">The woman was    shocked, but managed to compose herself and walk into the waiting room where    her ! daughter had been waiting.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">&#8216;Well, daughter,    we women celebrate when things are good, and we celebrate when things don&#8217;t    go so well. In this case, things aren&#8217;t well. I have cancer. So, let&#8217;s head    to the club and have a martini.&#8217;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">After 3 or 4 martinis,    the two were feeling a little less somber. There were some laughs and more martinis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">They were eventually    approached by ! some of the woman&#8217;s old friends, who were curious as to what    the two were celebrating. The woman told her friends they were drinking to her    impending end, &#8216;I&#8217;ve been diagnosed with AIDS.&#8217;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">The friends were    aghast, gave the woman their condolences and beat a hasty retreat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">After the friends    left, the woman&#8217;s daughter leaned over and whispered, &#8216;Momma, I thought you    said you were dying of cancer,. You just told your friends you were dying of    AIDS. Why did you do that?&#8217;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">&#8216;Because I don&#8217;t    want any of those bitches sleeping with your father after I&#8217;m gone.&#8217;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;\">And THAT is what    is called, &#8216;Putting Your Affairs In Order.&#8217;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/HarryNewton2.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-49\" title=\"HarryNewton\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/HarryNewton2.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"95\" height=\"162\" \/><br \/>\nH<\/a>arry Newton<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the next few days we&#8217;ll focus on simple ways to arrange your portfolio. There&#8217;ll be two elements &#8212; investing overseas and a relatively broad allocation of low cost index funds. Meantime, this chart is instructive. Notice the huge returns so far in BRIC and emerging markets. But also check out the widely varying returns [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}