{"id":12452,"date":"2012-04-03T09:02:00","date_gmt":"2012-04-03T13:02:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=12452"},"modified":"2012-04-03T09:44:56","modified_gmt":"2012-04-03T13:44:56","slug":"is-apple-in-a-bubble-if-it-is-what-should-we-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=12452","title":{"rendered":"Is Apple in a bubble? If it is, what should we do?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Is Apple in a bubble? <\/strong>Or is its recent rise justified by its future earnings? Today an analyst from Topeka Capital Markets called Brian White came out with Wall Street’s highest price target ever — $1,001<\/strong> — 62%<\/strong> above where it closed last night!
\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

I have pounded the table for table for Apple\u00a0 incessantly in recent months. Apple has been good for my portfolio and those of my readers who have listened. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

There is no way to predict where Apple will go now. Increasingly my friends are lapping up Apple products, dumping Microsoft’s Windows, etc. When I write how frustrated I am with Windows 7, I am avalanched with emails about how readers switched to Apple computers and iPads and their lives have been significantly enriched. It’s cult-like. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

For many institutions, Apple remains their largest holding. I haven’t heard of anyone selling — “to take some off the table” — or for whatever other reason.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Still, the market is irrational and totally unpredictable.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Business Insider<\/strong><\/a> clipped this piece from a well-respected brokerage firm called <\/span><\/span>Stifel Nicolaus. It compares Apple to a couple of other bubbles that ended in disaster. You can read their “logic.”<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

So, what do we, as Apple shareholders do? We have three choices:<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Buy more Apple.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Sell some or all of what we already own. Take some profit off the table.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Do nothing. But be extra vigilant. Keep our tops tight. Sell, should it begin to fall.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

My choice is 3. If Apple drops 8% to 12% (depending on how I feel that day), I’m out.I like Apple, but I’m not wedded to their stock.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

There’s absolutely no reason why you have to sit there like an immobile deer frozen in the headlights and hold Apple forever, especially if it starts to fall. <\/span><\/p>\n

You should also be aware that there’s basically no one out there that will ever recommend selling Apple. Certainly not on BubbleVision (CNBC) or in the Wall Street Journal, etc. The profitaility of these companies booms when stockmarket are booming. It is not in their interest to be glooom and doom. Think Larry Kudlow. That fellow is always positive. Jim Cramer, to his credit, does recommend selling. But his mantra is “there’s always a bull market out there and my job is to find it for you.”
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Back to my choice 3. Sell. <\/span><\/p>\n

I sold in 2000 when the shit hit the fan (technical expression) for tech stocks on NASDAQ, including Cisco, Microsoft, Brocade, etc. <\/span><\/p>\n

Of course, I was too dumb to sell them short. This is a salutary chart:<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Lessons from this chart:<\/span><\/p>\n

1. When it crashed, it crashed quickly. <\/span><\/p>\n

2. It didn’t crash straight down. It kept bouncing back — just enough to fool dumb investors into thinking it would come fully back. Of course, it never did.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. It still hasn’t come back.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

There are a million ways to invest your money.<\/strong>A short list this morning:<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1. Contemporary art. 60 Minutes<\/em> did a piece on contemporary art last Sunday. Returns have been nothing short of remarkable. Watch the piece here.<\/strong><\/a>
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Some commodities — especially silver, tungsten and maybe gold.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Guitars. A rock star friend of mine has been collecting them for years. He sold one recently $25,000. He’d bought it for $5,000.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Fine wine. Friends hold the stuff in their cellars for ten years or so, let the stuff age and then sell it for a small fortune. The good thing about the wine market is that there are no guarantees. If you sell a bottle for $12,000 and your buyer discovers it’s rancid, tough. He can pound sand.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

5. Collectibles. One of the most popular shows on public TV is a show about stuff.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

6. Land that’s unique and non-reproducible. Houses are easy to build. Land, with a view and a great location, isn’t.<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The moral of this story?\u00a0 Get excited. Learn something. Turn off bubblevision.<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Miracles happen. <\/strong><\/span>My friend is getting 100% of his MF Global trading account money back. and his friend is also. Though they don’t have the checks yet. No one knows where the money is coming from. And no one wants to ask.<\/p>\n

Found on a bathroom door in a restaurant, <\/strong><\/span>somewhere in California:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Carry an iPhone. Never miss the chance to photograph trivia, even in the local bathroom.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\n<\/strong><\/div>\n

Harry Newton whose Australian friend Patrick, emails this morning:<\/p>\n

The Australian government has announced that due to the shortage of Australian electricians and plumbers, that it will be allowing selected US qualified electricians and plumbers to migrate to Australia. Newspapers here in Australia that I have seen have carried the story, but never on the front page. There is to be an Australian government funded expo in Houston in May to “showcase” to qualified US workers the opportunities that exist for them to work and live in Australia.<\/p>\n

A curiosity to this “expo” is that preference will be given to trades people who are US military veterans. The reason behind this unusual selection criteria is that supposedly US war veterans would be used to working in “remote” areas. Of course any US worker that moves here will probably have a heart attack when they see what things cost here.<\/p>\n

Coincidentally, 2,500 US marines are currently moving into Darwin which will become a permanent US military base. The purpose of this base is, according to Australian news reports, to be able to offer rapid response reaction to any natural disasters that might occur either in Australia itself or in South East Asia!! Just as well our government explained that purpose to us. Otherwise, we’d be thinking that the US troops are there to protect the enormous US and international investors’ interests in northern Australia’s oil, gas, rare metals and minerals.<\/p>\n

I understand that the Australian government is considering declaring war on the United States. The government’s logic is that it will lose the war, be occupied and benefit by huge reparations to rebuild the Australian economy. This scenario was once played out in the famous 1959 Peter Sellers movie — The Mouse that Roared. A small European duchy declared war on the U.S. and actually invaded downtown Manhattan. the sad part (at least for them) was that New York was on a air-raid practice alert and no one was on the streets to battle the arriving army. Hence, the European duchy\u00a0 won the war…\u00a0 Rent the movie from NetFliix for the rest of the wonderful movie.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Australia’s army is more advanced than the one Peter Sellers fielded to attack the U.S. But it will still lose. Thankfully.<\/p>\n

Since I was born in Australia, maybe I’ll get a job as advisor to the State Department on how to deal with the Australians and their strange culture, and even stranger sense of humor.<\/p>\n

She’ll be right, mate.<\/p>\n

If you can’t read the Apple chart above, go the Business Insider site. Click here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Is Apple in a bubble? Or is its recent rise justified by its future earnings? Today an analyst from Topeka Capital Markets called Brian White came out with Wall Street’s highest price target ever — $1,001 — 62% above where it closed last night! I have pounded the table for table for Apple\u00a0 incessantly in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12452","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12452","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12452"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12452\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12452"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12452"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12452"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}