{"id":13310,"date":"2012-06-01T09:06:46","date_gmt":"2012-06-01T13:06:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=13310"},"modified":"2012-06-01T09:18:43","modified_gmt":"2012-06-01T13:18:43","slug":"oh-shit-the-sky-is-falling-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=13310","title":{"rendered":"Oh shit. The sky is falling, again."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The American dollar is up. US treasury bond prices are up, yields are way down &#8212; they fell through the floor yesterday. This means\u00a0 people worldwide are scared. And justifiably so. There&#8217;s plenty of awful economic news around &#8212; from China slowdown to contracting payrolls, from worsening manufacturing to an awful month of May in the stockmarket. If I lived in Europe, I&#8217;d be withdrawing my money from my bank and changing it into Swiss francs, English pounds, or American dollars. (Actually, correction, I would have done that months ago.)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sometime, there&#8217;ll be real blood in the streets and equities will be most attractive. But, right now, they&#8217;re not as attractive as they were in March, 2009.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/SPWasCheap.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-13329\" title=\"S&amp;PWasCheap\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/SPWasCheap.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"644\" height=\"285\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/SPWasCheap.jpg 644w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/SPWasCheap-300x132.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 644px) 100vw, 644px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">For now the play is to hold a few mortgage REITs (for their yield &#8212; see piece on <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/628891-a-dozen-reasons-to-like-american-capital-agency-corp\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>AGNC<\/strong><\/a>) and play ailing companies to the downside. Expanded list of shorts:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Best Buy (BBY)<br \/>\nBHP<br \/>\nCaterpillar (CAT)<br \/>\nDeckers (DECK)<br \/>\nDell (DELL)<br \/>\nEaton Vance (EV)<br \/>\nExxon Mobil (XOM)<br \/>\nFacebook (FB)<br \/>\nFirst Solar (FSLR)<br \/>\nGold (SGOL or GLD)<br \/>\nGreen Mountain (GMCR)<br \/>\nFossil (FOSL)<br \/>\nGame Stop (GME)<br \/>\nGoldman Sachs (GS)<br \/>\nIBM<br \/>\nJC Penney (JCP)<br \/>\nJoy Global (JOY)<br \/>\nJPMorgan (JPM)<br \/>\nMorgan Stanley (MS)<br \/>\nPatriot Coal (PCX)<br \/>\nRadioShack (RSH)<br \/>\nResearch In Motion (RIMM)<br \/>\nSanDisk (SNDK)<br \/>\nSupervalu (SVU)<br \/>\nTerex\u00a0 (TEX)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Best time to start a new business. <\/strong><\/span>Look in your own backyard for ideas. item: My local Sovereign Bank branch just got robbed &#8212; for the second time &#8212; by the same guy. The bank has\u00a0 photos of the guy. They gave them to the police. But the individual cops don&#8217;t. They don&#8217;t carry iPhones or other smartphones on which they could see the local bank robber and nab him. Time for a new app.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Gold is collapsing. I don&#8217;t know why.<\/strong><\/span> It&#8217;s meant to be the &#8220;go to&#8221; trade when things go awry, like now.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/GoldPastYearDrops.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-13318\" title=\"GoldPastYearDrops\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/GoldPastYearDrops.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"646\" height=\"282\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/GoldPastYearDrops.jpg 646w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/06\/GoldPastYearDrops-300x130.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 646px) 100vw, 646px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">But it&#8217;s fallen, and fallen hard. With India and China slowing, maybe they&#8217;re short of money for weddings and jewelry. Central banks in Europe are short of money. They&#8217;re probably selling\u00a0 gold to raise a few shekels.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Whatever the story, my inviolate stop loss rule pulled me out of gold a while back. And I won&#8217;t get back in until there&#8217;s a firm uptrend.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Now is a good time to borrow:<\/strong><\/span> My friend\u00a0 is buying a one-bedroom apartment in New York for $622,000. He is borrowing 7 year interest only mortgage at 2 5\/8 % a year at a\u00a0 70% loan to value.\u00a0 He worked his numbers:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ To rent the apartment would cost him $4,000 a month.<br \/>\n+ To buy it will cost him $2,600 a month.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">He expects to sell the apartment within seven years, since it&#8217;s for his daughter attending law school.\u00a0 There is no pre-payment penalty.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">His mortgage rate is ridiculously low.\u00a0 If he hadn&#8217;t bought the apartment, he could borrow the money and buy Vanguard&#8217;s high-yield tax-exempt bond fund called VWALX. He&#8217;d earn 2n immediate 2.89% dividend yield, possibly a small price appareciation in the value of the fund. My yield YTD on the fund is 5.18%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Lucky does Hawaii.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Hi Harry,<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Had an interesting experience renting a car for our trip to Hawaii next week. First I booked Hertz through Delta when I made my reservation.Chevy Impala.28 days.$1125.00.I started checking around last week for a better rate and booked Advantage.same Impala 28 days $706.00.very proud of myself. Tonight I decided to give Hotwire.com a try again and I just booked and pre-paid an Enterprise Impala, 28 days for $554.00.unbelievable. I called Advantage in Honolulu before I booked the Hotwire deal and ask if they would beat the Hotwire deal or price match it.The agent said take the Hotwire deal.he could not compete. When I went online and checked Enterprise today they quoted $606.00 which is about 400.00 less than when I checked with them a month ago. Oh yes, when I tried to book through AutoSlash online they said there were no cars available.I called them and the fellow in India said he could not help me with a car rental. I asked to be transferred back to the US and, like before, I was transferred to a hotel booking office that did not handle car rentals.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Wedding photography tips. <\/strong><\/span>The BIG key is to use flash all the time. It fills in shadows. It makes brides and their mothers look better. The resulting photos are easier to print.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">For equipment, choose a powerful strobe, a DSLR (digital single lens reflex) and a large external power pack for your strobe, like the Quantum Turbo Battery. Click <a href=\"http:\/\/www.qtm.com\/index.php\/?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=127&amp;Itemid=249\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">For more strobe tips, click <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pcworld.com\/article\/256213\/flash_and_lighting_tips_from_the_pros.html#tk.nl_tex_h_cbstories\" target=\"_blank\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I photographed a friend&#8217;s wedding this past weekend. Hence this note. I delivered a selection of the photos on Picassa (now called Google+) and the rest on a 4 gig $8 SD card.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Goldman Sachs gives transparency a whole new meaning. <\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I have an investment in a private equity fund called GS Capital Partners VI Parallel, L.P. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Instead of doing the honorable thing, admitting defeat, winding the miserable fund up, and returning the money to its suffering limited partners (like me), Goldman Sachs is expanding the fund. by buying more dubious assets, including:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">+ A start-up offshore oil field services provider,<br \/>\n+ A chain of physical therapy clinics,<br \/>\n+ A wind power farm in India, and my all-time favorite,<br \/>\n+ A financial services company in China, which Goldman says &#8220;<strong><em>Given the confidential nature of this investment, we are unable to provide more information.<\/em><\/strong>&#8221;<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Read that last sentence again.\u00a0 That&#8217;s their exact words. Goldman Sachs is investing my hard-earned money in a secret project somewhere in China doing something with finance. Trading derivatives? Taking bets on flies crawling up a wall? Doing deals with JPMorgan&#8217;s trader?<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">It makes me sick that I once thought it a good idea to gave Goldman Sachs my money to invest. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Think about the motivation here: Mine is to make a few shekels. Theirs is to pay themselves fees. The more of my money they have, the more they buy, the more fees they earn. They actually made a capital call on me recently &#8212; not to buy new companies or expand existing ones &#8212; but simply to pay themselves their management fees. What a totally screwed-up\u00a0 system!<\/span><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"> <\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">To think, I was once so stupid.<\/span><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Clever presentation using iPads and magic. <\/strong><\/span>Click <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/53_qvMQfvOE\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"HarryNewtonNewShot\" src=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"125\" height=\"180\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Harry Newton who is sad about the Australian dollar, which has fallen from $1.07 to around 96.4 cents. That drop reflects China slowing (Australia exports a lot to China) and the strengthening of the U.S dollar (a function of the world&#8217;s flight to quality).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I have been careful not to play forex (foreign exchange trading). I was pleased when I read this morning <em>The Growth Stock Wire:<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 30px;\"><strong>The Most Popular Trade Is Going to Explode. Again<\/strong><br \/>\nBy Jeff Clark<\/p>\n<p>About every year at this time, currency traders lose their minds. Then they lose their shirts. It&#8217;s going to happen again this year.<\/p>\n<p>The most popular trade in the currency market right now is to be long the dollar and short the euro. At first glance, this seems like a reasonable trade. After all, Europe is on the brink of collapse. And as the continent dissolves, investors flock to the safety of the U.S. dollar. It&#8217;s the ultimate &#8220;risk-off&#8221; trade.<\/p>\n<p>But here&#8217;s the thing. the world has a habit of not coming to an end.<\/p>\n<p>Think about it. Back in May 2010, Greece was threatening to default on its debts. Spanish banks were in trouble. Ireland, Italy, and Portugal were facing liquidity issues. The dollar rallied 7%-plus that month alone. That&#8217;s an enormous one-month move for a currency. The most popular trade on the planet was to be long the U.S. dollar and short the euro. I warned at the time the trade was going to blow up.<\/p>\n<p>And it did. The dollar fell 10% over the following two months as traders realized the world wasn&#8217;t going to end.<\/p>\n<p>Fast-forward to this time last year. The financial disaster in Europe took over the headlines. Greece was threatening to default. Spanish banks were in trouble. Yada yada yada. Once again, traders swarmed to the dollar, and the greenback gained 5% in May.<\/p>\n<p>It gave up all the gains, though, just one month later.<\/p>\n<p>Now, it&#8217;s the same old story. Once again, the long dollar\/short euro trade is the most popular position on the planet. The dollar has rallied 5% this month, and everyone is talking about the euro collapsing.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, it is 2012 &#8211; and maybe the Mayans were on to something &#8211; but I just don&#8217;t see Armageddon happening while everyone is looking for it. Financial markets do not reward popular trades. (This month&#8217;s disastrous Facebook IPO is a good example of that.) So while everyone is looking for continued dollar strength and euro weakness, I think the better idea is to do the opposite.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m not quite ready to buy the euro yet. Its downtrend is extended. But it hasn&#8217;t quite reached the oversold levels it hit in 2010. And with the Greek election coming up in mid-June, there&#8217;s plenty of time for some more downside volatility. but probably not much more.<\/p>\n<p>Over the next two weeks, I&#8217;ll be looking for opportunities to put risk back on. Everything that sold off this month as the dollar rallied is going to rally when the &#8220;long dollar\/short euro&#8221; trade blows up. Get ready for a hard bounce in commodities and stocks and a hard fall in bonds and the dollar.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The American dollar is up. US treasury bond prices are up, yields are way down &#8212; they fell through the floor yesterday. This means\u00a0 people worldwide are scared. And justifiably so. There&#8217;s plenty of awful economic news around &#8212; from China slowdown to contracting payrolls, from worsening manufacturing to an awful month of May in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13310"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13310\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}