{"id":16106,"date":"2012-11-19T09:02:30","date_gmt":"2012-11-19T14:02:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=16106"},"modified":"2012-11-19T09:12:36","modified_gmt":"2012-11-19T14:12:36","slug":"when-in-doubt-stay-out-wise-old-saying","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=16106","title":{"rendered":"When in doubt, stay out. Wise old saying."},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"yass_top_edge_dummy\" style=\"width: 1px; height: 1px; padding: 0px; margin: -11px 0px 0px; border-width: 0px; display: block; text-align: left;\"><\/div>\n<div id=\"yass_top_edge\" style=\"background-image: url('chrome:\/\/yass\/content\/edgebgtop.png'); background-attachment: scroll; background-position: center bottom; padding: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 10px -10px; border-width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block; width: 1px; text-align: left;\"><\/div>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px; text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s easy to be gloomy. See all the stuff below. But this stuff will turn around on a dime and the market will come roaring back. Late last week the mortgage REITs &#8212; including NLY,\u00a0 ARR, AGNC and TWO &#8212; came roaring back. The world had written them and their high yields off. My friends love TWO. I dipped my toe back into these things. But these and the market could swing again, on another dime.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px; text-align: left;\">The good news is that recently I&#8217;ve been flooded with interesting real estate opportunities &#8212; largely in commercial. Residential has tightened, with prices approaching nosebleed territory.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px; text-align: left;\">The basic problem with today&#8217;s world of investing is there&#8217;s simply too much money around scrounging among too few opportunities.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px; text-align: left;\">Yes, even after the meltdown in 2008, there&#8217;s still too much money and too few good opportunities.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px; text-align: left;\">The best way to approach this week&#8217;s Thanksgiving Day holidays is to be largely out.<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px; text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Investors rush to beat the threat of higher taxes.<\/strong> <\/span>From Sunday&#8217;s New York Times. Click <a title=\"Sell now. Beat next year's taxes.\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2012\/11\/19\/business\/investors-rush-to-beat-threat-of-higher-taxes.html?nl=todaysheadlines&amp;emc=edit_th_20121119\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px; text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>These charts from the weekend&#8217;s New York Times depress me:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px; text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/WorldProductionStagnates1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16137\" title=\"WorldProductionStagnates\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/WorldProductionStagnates1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"504\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/WorldProductionStagnates1.jpg 750w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/WorldProductionStagnates1-300x201.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px; text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/WorldProductionStagnates21.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16138\" title=\"WorldProductionStagnates2\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/WorldProductionStagnates21.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"750\" height=\"710\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/WorldProductionStagnates21.jpg 750w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/WorldProductionStagnates21-300x284.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px; text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Six reasons the rally has been running out of steam,<\/strong><\/span> according to Nouriel Roubini (&#8220;Dr. Gloom&#8221;)<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-top: 10px; text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/RoubiniGirls.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16112\" title=\"RoubiniGirls\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/RoubiniGirls.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"235\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: left;\">\n<ul>\n<li>Growth is weak.<\/li>\n<li>The Eurozone crisis is backsliding again. Greece is coming to a head (once again).<\/li>\n<li>Political concerns (fiscal cliff, etc.).<\/li>\n<li>Valuations have gotten way stretched, and are difficult to justify given low inflation and more developed market deleveraging.<\/li>\n<li>QE is running out of its impact, and unlike past QEs (QE1 and QE2), QE3 was launched near a market peak, and if anything revenue and earnings misses are expected to accelerate.<\/li>\n<li>Geopolitical risk is back (Israel, Gaza, Syria, etc.).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Roubini&#8217;s points were excerpted by Business Insider from a recent note to clients of his economic consulting firm.<\/p>\n<p>I thought of running a serious picture of Roubini like this one:<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/RoubiniPicture.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16113\" title=\"RoubiniPicture\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/RoubiniPicture.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"320\" height=\"240\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/RoubiniPicture.jpg 320w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/RoubiniPicture-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 320px) 100vw, 320px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>But the man does give the best parties in Manhattan.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>My hat&#8217;s off to Samsung.<\/strong><\/span> My old Samsung DLP TV&#8217;s mirrors got stuck. Samsung sent a repair man. He fixed the problem. He said the repair &#8220;was on Samsung.&#8221; The TV was way out of warranty. No wonder they&#8217;re killing all the Japanese makers &#8212; Sony, Panasonic and Sharp.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Governor Chris Christie on Saturday Night Live.<\/strong><\/span> He&#8217;s funny.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/GovernorChristie.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16109\" title=\"GovernorChristie\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/GovernorChristie.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"568\" height=\"320\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/GovernorChristie.jpg 568w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/GovernorChristie-300x169.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 568px) 100vw, 568px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Click <a title=\"Chris Christie on Saturday Night Live\" href=\"http:\/\/xfinity.comcast.net\/blogs\/tv\/2012\/11\/18\/snl-recap-nj-gov-chris-christie-steals-the-show\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"HarryNewtonNewShot\" src=\"..\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/HarryNewtonNewShot2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"125\" height=\"180\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Harry Newton who had a lovely Sunday afternoon taking Susan and Rosie to Art Omi Arts Center in Ghent, NY (130 miles north of New York City). Great exhibit of iconic American art relating to freedom and the vote from the collection of Lawrence Benenson:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ArtOmiExhibit.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16126\" title=\"ArtOmiExhibit\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ArtOmiExhibit.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"321\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ArtOmiExhibit.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ArtOmiExhibit-300x160.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In addition to its new exhibit building, Art Omi also has an extensive sculpture garden featuring really beautiful art.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ArtOmiExhibit2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16127\" title=\"ArtOmiExhibit2\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ArtOmiExhibit2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"403\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ArtOmiExhibit2.jpg 500w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/ArtOmiExhibit2-300x241.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">It&#8217;s a wonderful place to visit. For more, click <a title=\"Art Omi International Arts Center\" href=\"http:\/\/www.artomi.org\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Azithromycin remains my drug of choice. It works. I&#8217;m well.<\/p>\n<div id=\"yass_bottom_edge\" style=\"background-image: url('chrome:\/\/yass\/content\/edgebgbot.png'); background-position: 0px 0px; position: absolute; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px; height: 0px; left: 0px; top: 0px; width: 100%; display: block;\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s easy to be gloomy. See all the stuff below. But this stuff will turn around on a dime and the market will come roaring back. Late last week the mortgage REITs &#8212; including NLY,\u00a0 ARR, AGNC and TWO &#8212; came roaring back. The world had written them and their high yields off. My friends [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}