{"id":1802,"date":"2010-04-29T09:02:47","date_gmt":"2010-04-29T13:02:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=1802"},"modified":"2010-04-29T09:08:30","modified_gmt":"2010-04-29T13:08:30","slug":"the-bullishness-of-cash-and-lessons-on-what-to-do-with-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=1802","title":{"rendered":"The bullishness of cash and lessons on what to do with it."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Every so often I delve into why I&#8217;m earning so little on cash. And I despair. But so is everyone else. Our \u00a0desperation is doing exactly what it did the last few times the Fed lowered interest rates to practically nothing &#8212; it fueled a speculative boom. This time the boom is stocks. The good news is this boom is being supported (for now) by improving corporate earnings &#8212; e.g. this morning&#8217;s news from Procter &amp; Gamble.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The message the Fed is giving us all: throw caution to the wind; dump all your cash into common stocks. Yesterday the Fed reaffirmed its anti-saver interest policy once again, with these words:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve. Growth in household spending has picked up recently but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures is declining and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth. Although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1\/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, <strong>are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period&#8230;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Experience tells us 100% allocation \u00a0to common stocks is a recipe for disaster, especially at my age (67). \u00a0So yesterday I went in search of the perfect cash vehicle. I&#8217;ve done this exercise for several years now. Increasingly I walk away from the day feeling totally miserable. But I have learned two important things:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">First, the \u00a0Fed reduces its rates. And the banks follow slowly, as reflected in this chart of rates being paid for saving at banks:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/SavingsRates.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1812\" title=\"SavingsRates\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/SavingsRates.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"378\" height=\"88\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/SavingsRates.jpg 378w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/SavingsRates-300x69.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 378px) 100vw, 378px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Second, &#8220;the big fear&#8221; that bond prices will fall when interest rates rise has been a gigantic bugaboo &#8212; at least in the last five years. Every time I buy a bond or invest in a bond fund, I&#8217;m warned that value of my bonds will fall when \u00a0interest rates rise &#8211;as they must soon. But they never do. Meantime, I&#8217;m losing money by not &#8220;tweaking&#8221; my cash a little better. For example yesterday, I discovered that \u00a0My Vanguard New York Tax exempt money market fund was now paying the grand sum of 0.15%. A better deal would something like the Vanguard Limited-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares (VMLTX) which invested in short-term muni bonds, is exempt from Federal (but not local) and pays 1.42%. The warnings about capital loss are somewhat moot, however. Check out this chart of the fund from the last ten years. Notice that it&#8217;s fluctuated within a fairly narrow range over the past ten years, taking its time to make its move:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/VMLTX.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1816\" title=\"VMLTX\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/VMLTX.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"535\" height=\"244\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/VMLTX.jpg 535w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/VMLTX-300x136.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 535px) 100vw, 535px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Vanguard says the 10-year return on this fund has been 3.91%. Free of Federal tax, that&#8217;s not bad. This doesn&#8217;t go anywhere near NLY&#8217;s present 15.33% dividend yield but it&#8217;s also fluctuated more widely over the past ten years:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/NLY.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1817\" title=\"NLY\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/NLY.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"535\" height=\"244\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/NLY.jpg 535w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/NLY-300x136.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 535px) 100vw, 535px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The lessons are:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">1. You need to look at your cash and cash equivalents regularly. Suddenly you can be earning nothing. And they don&#8217;t tell you &#8220;we&#8217;ve just dropped our rates, again.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">2. You don&#8217;t have to despair and dump everything into equities.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">3. You should think of a broad allocation of \u00a0your &#8220;cash&#8221; investments. While less safe than bank CDs, bond funds appear to be ultra-safe &#8212; now the Fed is maintaining its anti-saver, pro-bank policy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">4. You should keep looking. Muni bonds, for example, aren&#8217;t traded like stocks. You can&#8217;t look up their prices. A bond appears. It&#8217;s cheap. You have 5 minutes to make up your mind. (At least that&#8217;s all Todd gives me.) Then it disappears. Someone else bought it. That&#8217;s it. No more. Not like the stockmarket. You&#8217;re left stunned. You buy it. Hopefully, you did good. \u00a0My bonds have done wonderfully in recent years. Thank you Todd.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Solid state drives improve. <span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">They&#8217;re not dropping in price. But they are improving in performance. MaximumPC magazine reviewed the major drives and liked two drives the best &#8212; the OWC Mercury Extreme Enterprise and the OCZ Vertex LE. Both these are only 100 GB which is a bit small for my taste. The magazine also liked the $330\u00a0<strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.tigerdirect.com\/applications\/searchtools\/item-details.asp?EdpNo=5688401&amp;SRCCODE=GOOGLEBASE&amp;cm_mmc_o=VRqCjC7BBTkwCjCECjCE\" target=\"_blank\">Corsair Nova V128,<\/a><\/strong> an updated version of the one I use (see the right hand column). This drive is bigger at 128 GB. As I&#8217;ve said before, a solid state drive (SSD) will speed your PC or laptop up faster than any tweeking you can do to the software and crapware on your hard drive.<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The future of bicycles?<\/span><\/strong> Acccording to <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.engadget.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">Engadget<\/a>, t<\/strong>his Lexus bicycle has apparently been quietly making the rounds since the last year&#8217;s Tokyo Motor Show.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/LexusBicycle.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1805\" title=\"LexusBicycle\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/LexusBicycle.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"350\" height=\"233\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/LexusBicycle.jpg 350w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/LexusBicycle-300x199.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 350px) 100vw, 350px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">While it&#8217;s still just a concept, it does exist in prototype form, and packs a 240-watt electric motor that&#8217;s powered by a 25.9-volt lithium battery pack, which promises to give you a little extra push when you&#8217;re tired of pedaling. Being a Lexus, it also follows the &#8220;L-finesse&#8221; design language, and it relies on the same principles of the Lexus Hybrid Drive system \u00a0to recharge the battery through regenerative braking. Unfortunately, Lexus says it doesn&#8217;t have any plans to put the bike into production.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Salt is not good for you. <span style=\"font-weight: normal;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Richard Russell of the Dow Theory (investment) Letters writes:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"> <\/span><\/strong>Now it can be told. I&#8217;ve been warning my subscribers about the dangers of too much salt. Go through your local super-market and read the labels. Almost everything is loaded with sodium. It&#8217;s almost criminal. Soup is one of the worst offenders as are frozen dinners. A feature article on the front page of today&#8217;s USA Today tells the story. &#8220;Known as a silent killer, it&#8217;s part of the way we live.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">&#8220;More than half of Americans have either high blood pressure or pre-hypertension,&#8221; says cardiologist Clyde Yancy, President of the American Heart Association and medical director at the Baylor Heart and Vascular Institute of Dallas.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Americans now consume an average of about 3,400 milligrams of sodium a day or about 1 1\/2 teaspoons, government data show. Men consume more than women. But most adults &#8211; including those with high blood pressure, African-Americans, the middle-aged and the elderly &#8211; should consume no more that 1,500 milligrams a day, according to the dietary guidelines from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Others should consume less that a teaspoon, the guideline say.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">And yet it&#8217;s virtually impossible to limit yourself to such amounts if you often eat processed foods, prepared foods or restaurant fare, including fast food. Most Americans&#8217; sodium intake comes from those sources, not the salt shaker on the table. Some restaurant entrees have 2,000 milligrams or more in one dish. Fast-food burgers can have more that 1,000 milligrams. Many soups are chock-full of sodium. So are many spaghetti sauces, broths, lunch meats, salad dressings, cheeses, crackers and frozen foods.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">&#8220;You can&#8217;t see it,&#8221; Yancy says. &#8220;You can&#8217;t even taste it because you are so accustomed to it. If you want the freedom to make healthy choices, you are limited by today&#8217;s foods. That&#8217;s a problem.&#8221;<br \/>\nThere are several theories for why sodium increases blood pressure, Yancy says, &#8220;but the most obvious one is that it makes us retain fluids, and that retention elevates blood pressure,&#8221; which injures blood vessels and leads to heart disease and stroke. &#8220;It&#8217;s a connect-the-dots phenomenon.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">There are many punchlines here.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/strong>A doctor says to his patient, \u201cI have bad news and worse news\u201d.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u201cOh dear, what&#8217;s the bad news?\u201d asks the patient.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The doctor replies, \u201cYou only have 24 hours to live.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u201cThat&#8217;s terrible\u201d, said the patient. \u201cHow can the news possibly be worse?\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The doctor replies, \u201cI&#8217;ve been trying to contact you since yesterday.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The joke that got the White House in trouble.<\/span><\/strong><br \/>\nA Taliban militant gets lost and is wandering around the desert looking for water. He finally arrives at a store run by a Jew and asks for water.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Jewish vendor tells him he doesn&#8217;t have any water but can gladly sell him a tie. The Taliban begins to curse and yell at the Jewish storeowner. The Jew, unmoved, offers the rude militant an idea: Beyond the hill, there is a restaurant; they can sell you water.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Taliban keeps cursing and finally leaves toward the hill. An hour later he&#8217;s back at the tie store. He walks in and tells the merchant: &#8220;Your brother tells me I need a tie to get into the restaurant.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/HarryNewton.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-9\" title=\"HarryNewton\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/12\/HarryNewton.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"95\" height=\"162\" \/><\/a><\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Harry Newton, who looks at today&#8217;s blue skies and feels wonderful. Tomorrow we look at debt. Until then, avoid it. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every so often I delve into why I&#8217;m earning so little on cash. And I despair. But so is everyone else. Our \u00a0desperation is doing exactly what it did the last few times the Fed lowered interest rates to practically nothing &#8212; it fueled a speculative boom. This time the boom is stocks. The good [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1802"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1802\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}