{"id":18956,"date":"2013-04-03T09:12:16","date_gmt":"2013-04-03T13:12:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=18956"},"modified":"2013-04-03T11:32:30","modified_gmt":"2013-04-03T15:32:30","slug":"some-ideas-all-the-stocks-that-buffett-isnt-dumping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=18956","title":{"rendered":"Some ideas. All the stocks that Buffett isn’t dumping."},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

I do like three of Jim Cramer’s recent favs: D (Dominion Resources), LNG (Cheniere Energy) and WM (Waste Management). But I need more time to check them out. Their charts do, however, look great, especially Dominion Resources:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

We went to the theater last night — The Big Knife — and I feel asleep. I’d played two hours of singles tennis that afternoon and was exhausted. Exercise is more satisfying that watching the market go up and down faster than a whore’s drawers (Australian expression).<\/p>\n

Big tech sleepiness. <\/strong>Every year I buy a faster, newer laptop. This year I can’t. There’s nothing to buy. I have the fastest, but it’s a year old. I email my buddy, Intel CEO, Paul\u00a0 Otellini. he tells me “Haswell in the second half of this year is VERY good.” Haswell is the code name of their upcoming, latest and delayed X86 chip.<\/span> It seems Intel tried to put power management on the chip and failed — that according to buzz on the Internet. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

It’s an amazing world when your customers have to beg you to do what you’re meant to — introduce new products. Whatever happened to Moore’s Law?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Had you owned Intel for the last ten years, you’d be poorer today. Amazing. It’s the world’s largest semi-conductor maker:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

My friend sent me a pile of investor newsletters he gets.<\/strong><\/span> Including this one:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

I looked at the headline and did a double-take. I’d just read Warren Buffett’s annual report. The last thing he’s doing is “dumping” stocks.<\/p>\n

So much for Conrad’s credibility.<\/p>\n

\u00a0I also have “Four Unstoppable Megatrends for 2013<\/em>.” from a company called GameChangers. The four are e the era of big data, the mobile revolution 2.0, forget China look to Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Peru and Chile, and explosive profits from this once-secret technology (i.e. drones). The prose is so breathless and the promises of instant wealth so extraordinary, it’s hard to resist. I especially love GameChangers’ “guarantee, “<\/p>\n

P.S. There aren’t many guarantees in life, but here’s one guarantee I’m willing to make; If you don’t act today, I can guarantee you will look back a year form now full of eegret that you missed out on another year of market stomping gains.<\/p>\n

Maybe I should give the editor of GameChangers<\/em> the $99 she wants for a year’s subscription and get these delicious reports for free:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Don’t put too much money in your bank.<\/strong><\/span> In America the first $250,000 is insured by the FDIC, which doesn’t have enough money to give you your $250,000 if many banks fail at once. Is that likely to happen? Probably not. But I certainly wouldn’t rely on one bank to keep all my money, no matter how little of it I have.<\/p>\n

Roger Lowenstein is another of my favorite financial writers. He wrote this piece for the New York Times recently. I find it fascinating:<\/p>\n

\n

FOR all the criticism of bailouts since the financial crisis struck, virtually no one has suggested that depositors in banks be made to suffer along with their investors, employees and customers. Until this week, when the euro zone proposed that, in return for a bailout of the failing banking system in Cyprus, depositors pay a \u201ctax\u201d of 6.75 percent of their deposits \u2014 9.9 percent for deposits above 100,000 euros.<\/p>\n

Because bank deposits in Cyprus, and virtually everywhere, are insured, the plan shocked many people who figured that this insurance<\/a> was the one financial safety net that was still truly \u201csafe.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Cypriot Parliament shot down the plan, though a smaller hit to depositors \u2014 many of whom are wealthy foreigners \u2014 was still in the offing late last week. Yet the tempest in the eastern Mediterranean is a reminder that depositors, in fact, are also creditors of banks and are potentially at risk.<\/p>\n

In the United States, deposit insurance is viewed as sacrosanct. But even here, such plans haven\u2019t always worked, and at least until recent times they have been contentious.<\/p>\n

If the nation has a father of bank insurance, it is Joshua Forman, one of the promoters of the Erie Canal. Early in the 19th century, New York State had a string of bank failures, and Martin Van Buren, then governor, asked him to restructure the banking industry. Forman\u2019s insight was that banks were vulnerable to chain-reaction panics. As he put it \u2014 in a line unearthed by the Harvard Business School historian David Moss \u2014 \u201cbanks constitute a system, being peculiarly sensitive to one another\u2019s operations, and not a mere aggregate of free agents.\u201d<\/p>\n

In 1829, Forman proposed an insurance fund capitalized by mandatory contributions from the state\u2019s banks. Debate in the State Assembly was heated. Critics said failures could overwhelm the fund; they also argued that its very existence would reduce the \u201cpublic scrutiny and watchfulness\u201d that restrained bankers from reckless lending. This remains the intellectual argument against insurance today. But Forman\u2019s plan was enacted, and subsequently five other states adopted plans.<\/p>\n

All did not go smoothly. In the 1840s, during a national depression, 11 banks in New York State failed and the insurance fund \u2014 as prophesied \u2014 was threatened with insolvency. The state sold bonds to bail it out.<\/p>\n

After the Civil War and the establishment of nationally chartered banks, the state insurance systems were allowed to die. But banking panics and money shortages in the 1870s and \u201980s revived the issue. Republicans thought the way to stop panics was to establish a central bank. Democrats were inveterate central-bank haters, but they needed a solution. William Jennings Bryan, the party\u2019s three-time presidential nominee, called for deposit insurance, especially to protect small depositors.<\/p>\n

Bryan lost the elections, but he won a victory of sorts on insurance. In 1907, a Wall Street panic led to a depression, and banks nationwide resorted to doling out scrip rather than cash. With the economy still in free-fall, Oklahoma adopted deposit insurance. Republicans were hotly opposed. President William Howard Taft, running against Bryan for president in 1908, said the Oklahoma law \u201cput a premium on reckless banking.\u201d The industry predicted that the system would fail. Depositors, argued James Laughlin, a banking expert of the day, should rely on the \u201cskill, integrity and good management\u201d of bankers.<\/p>\n

Oklahomans thought otherwise. So great was the demand for insurance that Oklahoma banks with national charters liquidated and reorganized as state banks to participate. In fact, people in neighboring Kansas began to deposit in Oklahoma, forcing Kansas to enact a similar plan. Ultimately, eight states adopted insurance.<\/p>\n

Their experience, alas, bore out the critics\u2019 warnings. Depressed farm prices led to waves of bank failures in the 1920s, and one by one state systems folded.<\/p>\n

When bank failures reached epidemic proportions in the Great Depression<\/a>, the idea was revived. Again, the industry opposed it \u2014 as did Franklin D. Roosevelt, who said insurance \u201cwould lead to laxity in bank management and carelessness on the part of both banker and depositor.\u201d Insurance was to be financed by premiums from banks. Still, because it was guaranteed by the government, Roosevelt feared that it could bankrupt the Treasury.<\/p>\n

But popular opinion prevailed. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation<\/a> was created in 1933, protecting deposits up to $2,500. Over time, the insured limit rose to $100,000. (And it more than doubled, to $250,000, in the recent crisis.)<\/p>\n

The system worked \u2014 for a while. In the 1970s, finance was deregulated, interest rates turned volatile and savings and loan associations (protected by another agency) took huge risks. Hundreds of S.& L.\u2019s failed, and their insurer became insolvent. Taxpayers had to fork over more than $100 billion.<\/p>\n

To critics, the S.& L. fiasco proved that insurance was a flawed concept. The problem wasn\u2019t insurance per se, but that premiums weren\u2019t high enough \u2014 nor were they adjusted according to the risk presented by individual banks. (By the same principle, any rational auto insurer will charge a higher premium for an 18-year-old with a D.U.I.)<\/p>\n

INCREDIBLY, Congress didn\u2019t learn its lesson. After recovery from the S.& L. crisis, Congress, lulled by an improving climate, succumbed to bankers who called the F.D.I.C. overfinanced. Premiums were cut to zero for banks judged to be well capitalized.<\/p>\n

Again, the good times didn\u2019t last. In 2009, in the financial crisis, the F.D.I.C. fund was underwater. Net assets \u2014 $53 billion before the crash \u2014 fell to a negative $21 billion. The agency crawled back into the black by ordering banks to pay premiums in advance and by leveling a special assessment. In 2010, the Dodd-Frank law raised premiums, especially for bigger banks and for banks classified as riskier. No taxpayer money was used.<\/p>\n

The F.D.I.C.\u2019s deficit amounted to a failure of foresight, or courage, by Congress, but the system succeeded in the larger sense of heading off panics. Just imagine the crisis in confidence in 2008 had ordinary depositors feared for their money. Insurance proved to be worth its weight in gold.<\/p>\n

Cyprus, alas, does not have the option of a national government bailout because it does not print its own money. Even if it rejects the euro zone\u2019s terms and bails out banks in some new local currency, that currency would not be worth much in international markets. So one way or another, its depositors are going to lose. Insurance plans are just as safe \u2014 but cannot be any safer \u2014 than the assets behind them.<\/p>\n

Favorite sign.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

More tasteless, unPC humor.<\/strong><\/span>
\nMohammed entered his classroom on the first day of school.<\/p>\n

“What is your name?” – asked the teacher.<\/p>\n

“Mohammed”. . .. – answered the kid.<\/p>\n

“You are in America now. From now on your name will be Johnny,” -replied the teacher.<\/p>\n

In the evening, Mohammed returned home. “How was your day, Mohammed?” – asked his mother.<\/p>\n

“My name is not Mohammed. I’m in America and now my name is Johnny.”<\/p>\n

“Ah, are you ashamed of your name, are you trying to dishonor your parents, your heritage, your religion? Shame on you!” – and she beat him.<\/p>\n

Then she called his father and he too beat him.<\/p>\n

The next day Mohammed returned to school.<\/p>\n

When the teacher saw him with all the bruises she asked, “What happened to you little Johnny”?<\/p>\n

“Well ma’am, 20 hours after becoming an American, I was attacked by two Arabs.”<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\nHarry Newton who spent yesterday at the New York Auto show. What a bust. The cars you wanted to get close to were roped off or locked. The cars you wanted to see weren’t there. Next time, Harry, don’t waste the $15 admission fee. Visit the showrooms and go for a real test drive. The big problem with modern cars is they’re increasingly full of electronic gadgetry that sucks huge amounts of energy — whether the car is moving or sleeping. If you don’t drive the thing for 45 seconds (I exaggerate), the battery is drained and nothing works. We couldn’t open the tailgate on one BMW because something was wrong with the battery and\/or the electronic opening and closing mechanism. And this, despite the fact that most cars were on raised floors and being constantly charged from underneath. Bend over, and I could see the cables snaking up. Why we need a motor to open and close tailgates beats me. Strikes me as another useless gadget to break.<\/p>\n

There are an amazing number of hybrid, diesel and electric cars. If you drive short distances in the city, you need one type of car. If you drive on the highway, you need another. It’s getting complicated. And God forbid if you drive a lot, then you don’t want to lease.\u00a0 They gouge you for extra miles. My biggest personal concern is the longest, broadest warranty. There’s so much stuff that can go wrong with these new cars, you don’t want to pay for any of it. All this computer stuff — no matter how wonderful it is when it works — is hideously expensive to fix when it doesn’t.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I do like three of Jim Cramer’s recent favs: D (Dominion Resources), LNG (Cheniere Energy) and WM (Waste Management). But I need more time to check them out. Their charts do, however, look great, especially Dominion Resources: We went to the theater last night — The Big Knife — and I feel asleep. I’d played […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18956","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18956"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18956\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18956"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18956"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18956"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}