{"id":19620,"date":"2013-05-02T09:15:25","date_gmt":"2013-05-02T13:15:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=19620"},"modified":"2013-05-02T09:47:39","modified_gmt":"2013-05-02T13:47:39","slug":"a-temporary-blip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=19620","title":{"rendered":"A temporary blip."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The market freaked over the Fed&#8217;s FOMC remarks. It was disappointed. What did it expect?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 30px;\">&#8220;<em>The economy is wonderful. Business is booming. Everybody is employed. Inflation is restrained. Our job is done. Everybody at the Federal Reserve Bank is taking a six-month paid vacation in Jamaica<\/em>.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Fed didn&#8217;t say that. It said things are still tough &#8212; so tough they require the Fed to keep doing what it&#8217;s been doing &#8212;\u00a0 printing money, buying bonds and keeping interest rates at nothing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The &#8220;problem&#8221; is unemployment. Too many people don&#8217;t have a job. The best way to get people back to work is stimulus programs &#8212; build roads and bridges. But Washington can&#8217;t do that because Congress is focusing on the wrong problem &#8212; cutting the deficit, balancing the budget &#8212; nstead of putting people to work. You can see how Congress has it all wrong with the Sequester. People lost their jobs, including the FAA&#8217;s traffic controllers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Because the resulting airline delays would inconvenience our entitled members of Congress going home for a week vacation, Congress quickly got together, and passed law to give money to the FAA to put their controllers back to work. Screw doing anything for the remaining unemployed mass of Americans, especially the ones who lost their jobs because of the Sequester and ones who don&#8217;t speed up planes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Fed&#8217;s no-interest rate policy is meant to encourage the banks to lend money to businesses who will use the money\u00a0 to build factories and employ new workers. But that doesn&#8217;t work because businesses will only borrow money when they see burgeoning business opportunities &#8212; which most don&#8217;t see, or already have more than enough money in the bank to invest. It takes a mighty CEO to invest zillions of his company&#8217;s precious &#8220;rainy day&#8221; money when the Fed is telling him growth is &#8220;moderate.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In short, nothing has changed. The economy will continue its slow recovery, buoyed along by the usual stuff &#8212; new technology, new businesses, successful entrepreneurs and some pent-up demand &#8212; like when the kids living at home at present finally decide to move into their own space.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">In short, yesterday&#8217;s horrible stockmarket meant nothing &#8212; other than &#8220;stocks on sale.&#8221; It&#8217;ll come back quickly and our stocks will continue up. Of that I&#8217;m totally confident. If you really want to read the Fed&#8217;s FOMC statement (you won&#8217;t learn anything), click <a title=\"The Fed's May 1 FOMC statement.\" href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/press\/monetary\/20130501a.htm\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>The banks learn marketing.<\/strong><\/span> Well almost. Most banks sell the same &#8220;services&#8221; to everyone. Intelligent banks have figured some people have more money and want more services &#8212; like no charges for incoming wires. Hence, the creation of &#8220;private client&#8221; banks. Example: Leave $250,000 with Chase Private Client and basically everything is free, including the coffee. Read about Chase Private Client <a title=\"Chase Private Client\" href=\"https:\/\/www.chase.com\/online\/private_client\/banking-investments.htm\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a> Leave more money and you can become a customer of JPMorgan&#8217;s Private Client group which is more touchie-feelie.\u00a0 and helps you with your investments and things like your kids&#8217; trusts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The good news is that my present local bank called Sovereign finally (after ten days) agreed to reimburse me the $315 for the incoming wire fees they&#8217;d charged me &#8212; $13 a wire, irrespective of how large the wire. Getting the authorization for the $315 refund almost took an act of congress. My local branch manager&#8217;s limit is $100. Read that again. A man they&#8217;re paying thousands of dollars to run their local branch is capped at $100. What moron set that rule?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Private client groups are a good idea. They have free designer water and really nice furniture.\u00a0 It&#8217;s not from Ikea, like Sovereign&#8217;s.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Economists are a dour group. <\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">In my search for new, intelligent bank, City National Bank invited me to a breakfast yesterday with Austan Goolsbee, ex-chairman of Obama&#8217;s Council of Economic Advisers from 2010 to 2011 and now professor of Economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. I won&#8217;t even question why a school of business has a professor of economics. Anyway, Goolsbee said &#8220;economists are not the most optimistic people.&#8221; He said he was &#8220;very pessimistic&#8221; on Japan (short the yen), and Europe, and China have their problems also.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">He&#8217;s very optimistic about the U.S. for these reasons:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">1. Pent-up demand. Since the recession started, more than 10 million kids are living at home. When they move out, buy homes, furniture and have babies, things will explode.<br \/>\n2. Our demographics. We&#8217;re getting old. But everyone is getting a lot older faster than we are.<br \/>\n3. We remain the most productive workforce in the world.<br \/>\n4. Corporate profits have never been higher as a % of GDP. Corporations have oodles of money to invest and grow.<br \/>\n5. Last (and most important). the US is the most entrepreneurial country in the world.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Goolsbee told the story of a German who was starting a business in the U.S. Someone asked him, &#8220;Why not Germany?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">He replied &#8220;if I described this idea in Germany. everybody will tell me reasons it will fail. Here everyone tells me reasons it will succeed. They tell me to do it. They say, start the business. I can come work for you. We can use my uncle&#8217;s garage as the first office.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Goolsbee warned about government statistics. He warned that looking at individual month statistics was misleading, since they were often revised. The trend is what counted. Gooldsbee didn&#8217;t talk about the underground cash economy, which I think is huge and which the government ignores.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Should you sign NDA Agrements?<\/strong><\/span> The short answer is NO. An NDA gives the company a weapon to sue you. An NDA confers no benefits on you. If they really expect you to blab or steal their idea, why would they show you in first place?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I argue that I&#8217;m honest. And I won&#8217;t blab. That usually works and they talk to me. The real reason I won&#8217;t sign NDAs is that I&#8217;m simply too lazy to read the eight pages of tiny type and figure out what their NDA is actually saying.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Credit cards are booming.<\/strong><\/span> I&#8217;ve had V (Visa) as a pick for a while. My holdings are up 27%\u00a0 Yesterday Visa reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.92, better than the $1.81 expected by analysts. Credit card usage was up 9 percent year over year in the first quarter, but debit card usage was flat.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16364\" title=\"HarryNewton\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/HarryNewton.jpg\" width=\"233\" height=\"210\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton who worries about all the expensive liberal education he got his kids and what it&#8217;s done to their brains. They&#8217;re all become vegetarians. They believe in women&#8217;s rights. And they even have gay friends. Worse, on Saturday I caught Claire in the local supermarket asking a clerk for where she could find\u00a0 &#8220;organic, free-range tin foil.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/tinfoild.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-19635\" alt=\"tinfoild\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/tinfoild.jpg\" width=\"292\" height=\"214\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">There&#8217;s a market for this stuff.\u00a0 Should I tell Alcoa? Should Claire&#8217;s college &#8212; Bowdoin in Maine &#8212; receive royalties from this idea? I bet it was originally their brilliant idea.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/BowdooinBuildingjpg.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-19646\" alt=\"BowdooinBuilding,jpg\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/BowdooinBuildingjpg.jpg\" width=\"225\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/BowdooinBuildingjpg.jpg 225w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/BowdooinBuildingjpg-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 225px) 100vw, 225px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The market freaked over the Fed&#8217;s FOMC remarks. It was disappointed. What did it expect? &#8220;The economy is wonderful. Business is booming. Everybody is employed. Inflation is restrained. Our job is done. Everybody at the Federal Reserve Bank is taking a six-month paid vacation in Jamaica.&#8221; The Fed didn&#8217;t say that. It said things are [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19620\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}