{"id":20290,"date":"2013-06-05T09:13:02","date_gmt":"2013-06-05T13:13:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=20290"},"modified":"2013-06-05T09:25:41","modified_gmt":"2013-06-05T13:25:41","slug":"the-summer-swoon-the-banks-are-at-it-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=20290","title":{"rendered":"The summer swoon. The banks are at it, again."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The Summer Swoon is upon us. Investors are wary of many things:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ The run-up running out of steam, as big rises are want to do.<br \/>\n+ Mr. Bernanke cutting back on QE &#8212; i.e. stop printing money.<br \/>\n+ A rise in interest rates.<br \/>\n+ Jobs &#8212; they&#8217;re not being created fast enough.<br \/>\n+ Europe (which is still awful and getting more awful).<br \/>\n+ Japan &#8212; newly announced Abenomics measures aren&#8217;t enough. Japanese stocks are swooning big time.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">My friends don&#8217;t like our recent stock losses. (Neither do I.) They wonder what&#8217;s next? Probably more losses. You can&#8217;t predict this stuff. For now, stick with it. But kick the stuff out if you hit an 8% Stop Loss. You can always buy it back &#8212; and probably cheaper too.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>I don&#8217;t invest in companies I don&#8217;t like.<\/strong> <\/span>This is reverse Peter Lynch. Often, I&#8217;m wrong because I forget momentum. Like I stayed away from the banks, despite their big run-up. I dislike the big banks both first, because of the &#8220;service&#8221; they provide me\u00a0 (and my friends) and second, because of their lack of creativity in making services that appeal to me. But then if I were a banker, I guess I wouldn&#8217;t be interested in dealing with the likes of tiny fish Harry. I&#8217;d rather spend my time thinking of new ways to allow my BIG customers to gamble. That&#8217;s where the big fee money is. What&#8217;s great is that the government is encouraging me. My bank is too big to fail. And when I mess up again and almost bring the economy crashing down (as I will), I&#8217;ll get bailed out again and again. Meantime I can do whatever I please since I&#8217;ve lobbied successfully that they won&#8217;t stop me doing anything I damn well please.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Now you know why Harry Newton feels so strongly about this important piece from today&#8217;s Wall Street Journal:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><strong>\u00a0One of Wall Street&#8217;s Riskiest Bets Returns<\/strong><br \/>\nInvestors are once again clamoring for a risky investment blamed for helping unleash the financial crisis: the synthetic CDO.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">In a sign of how hard Wall Street is trying to satisfy voracious demand for higher returns amid rock-bottom interest rates, J.P. Morgan Chase &amp; Co. and Morgan Stanley bankers in London are moving to assemble so-called synthetic collateralized debt obligations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">CDOs give investors a chance to bet on the creditworthiness of a basket of companies. Basic CDOs pool bonds and offer investors a slice of the pool. Synthetic CDOs pool, instead of the bonds themselves, insurance-like derivative contracts on the bonds.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/BlastFromThe-Past.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-20309\" alt=\"BlastFromThe Past\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/BlastFromThe-Past.jpg\" width=\"225\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/BlastFromThe-Past.jpg 225w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/BlastFromThe-Past-190x300.jpg 190w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 225px) 100vw, 225px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Like their crisis-era predecessors, the new CDOs would be sliced up into different levels of risk and returns. Investors who want a chance at the highest returns would have to buy the riskiest slice.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">While spreading risk in some ways, synthetic CDOs also can multiply the financial damage if companies fall behind on their debt payments.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">During the financial crisis, CDOs pegged to soured mortgage loans caused losses to careen around the world.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Their catastrophic impact was denounced by many lawmakers and investors, and the market for all kinds of highly engineered financial instruments evaporated.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Some details of the deals being worked on at J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley aren&#8217;t clear, including the size of the CDOs and which investment firms have expressed an interest in buying slices of them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The banks declined to comment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">A small number of institutional investors recently approached the two banks and asked them if they would put together the synthetic CDOs, according to people familiar with the discussions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The requests were made in London, a global center of derivatives trading.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley now are trying to line up more investors as buyers for the instruments, said a person familiar with the talks. An investor usually buys just one slice of a CDO, which usually is chopped into about six pieces.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The banks likely won&#8217;t proceed with the CDOs unless they can sign up enough investors.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Before the financial crisis, CDOs and synthetic CDOs were a big cog in Wall Street&#8217;s so-called structured-finance machine, bringing in substantial fees for securities firms that put together the deals. Above, a bull statue on Wall Street.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley aren&#8217;t expected to invest in their own deals because of postcrisis rules that require banks to set aside large amounts of capital against possible losses on these types of investments.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The interest by potential investors in new synthetic CDOs shows that demand for higher returns is intense, said Brian Reynolds, chief market strategist at brokerage firm Rosenblatt Securities Inc. &#8220;Wall Street will create new, more complex, more risky structures to satisfy that demand,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">In the peak year of 2007, financial firms issued $634 billion of synthetic CDOs, according to data provider Creditflux. Sales fell to $98 billion in 2009. Since then, some hedge funds and banks have worked together to bundle derivatives into custom-made trades, but those private deals were often small and weren&#8217;t evaluated by credit-rating firms.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">A CDO driven by a different aim is also in the works. Citigroup Inc. now is selling a CDO using derivatives tied to the bank&#8217;s portfolio of loans to shipping companies, but this deal isn&#8217;t motivated by investor demand for higher returns.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Instead, the impetus for the roughly $500 million deal, being pitched only outside the U.S., is Citigroup&#8217;s desire to make room on its balance sheet for new loans and hold less capital as a cushion against potential losses on the shipping loans, said a person familiar with the transaction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Investors in the deal will be on the hook for some losses. In return, the deal is expected to pay an annual yield of 13% to 15%, according to the person familiar with the offering. Citigroup declined to comment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">It isn&#8217;t clear how much investors would stand to earn on the synthetic CDOs being assembled by J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley. Investment-grade corporate bonds now yield less than 5%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Efforts to pull off the deals show that banks and investors battered by CDOs during the financial crisis are increasingly willing to ignore bad memories in order to reach for higher returns. In markets ranging from commercial mortgage-backed securities to junk bonds, investors are eager to buy even the very riskiest investments, some of which now deliver yields of more 20% per year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Before the crisis, CDOs and synthetic CDOs were a big cog in Wall Street&#8217;s so-called structured-finance machine, bringing in substantial fees for securities firms that put together the deals.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">In 2007, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. created a CDO called Abacus 2007-AC1 for hedge-fund firm Paulson &amp; Co., which wanted to magnify a bet against the U.S. housing market.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The deal delivered a profit to the hedge-fund firm and founder John Paulson. But in 2010, Goldman paid $550 million to settle accusations by the Securities and Exchange Commission that other investors in the deal were misled. Goldman didn&#8217;t admit any wrongdoing but said it had made mistakes in its marketing of the deal.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Investors are barreling into a related type of security tied to corporate debt, called collateralized loan obligations, or CLOs. So far this year, more than $35 billion of CLOs have been sold in the U.S., while European issuance is equal to more than $2 billion, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The synthetic CDOs being built by J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley differ from their predecessors in some ways. For example, one middle slice has been harder to sell than other pieces because it doesn&#8217;t yield enough, some investors complain. Since the crisis, credit-rating firms have made it tougher for deals to get top-notch letter grades.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">In another difference, buyers of the least-risky slices would get more protection against potential losses than buyers of similar slices did before and during the crisis, said people familiar with the discussions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Hedge funds are considered the likeliest buyers for riskier parts of the deals, which are the first slices to absorb losses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>My favorite printer is Vistaprint (VPRT). <\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">They print beautiful useful cheap businesssy things like business cards. My favorite part is how well they use online technology. I remember the old days when printers would Fedex you proofs; you&#8217;d make changes, then more Fedexed proofs. Days would go by. Now you design and edit all your stuff online. You sign off on it. And a few days later your cards, labels and other stuff arrive. No human contact. Beautiful, simple online customer service. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I don&#8217;t recommend the stock since something has gone wrong with their earnings.\u00a0 But I do like their service and their products. And I just bought a bunch of new stuff from them. And I&#8217;m very happy with it all.\u00a0 To shop at Vistaprint, click <a title=\"Shop at Vistaprint\" href=\"http:\/\/www.vistaprint.com\/vp\/ns\/default.aspx?dr=1&amp;GP=6%2f5%2f2013+8%3a04%3a52+AM&amp;GPS=2859170200&amp;GNF=0\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>here.<\/strong><\/a> If you buy something use this 25% off coupon which they just sent me for shopping with them<strong> &#8212; <a title=\"Vistaprint discount\" href=\"www.vistaprint.com\/rals\" target=\"_blank\">www.vistaprint.com\/rals<\/a><\/strong><\/span><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/VPRT.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-20291\" alt=\"VPRT\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/VPRT.jpg\" width=\"642\" height=\"281\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/VPRT.jpg 642w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/VPRT-300x131.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 642px) 100vw, 642px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Verizon&#8217;s FiOS can be very speedy. <\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I get about 45 megs a second up and down from Verizon&#8217;s really super FiOS service. I&#8217;m going up a little because speed is seriously good. FiOS will go as high as 300 megs which is seriously fast. There comes a time, however,\u00a0 when your PC can&#8217;t keep up with Internet speed. Remember the PC&#8217;s browser has to process the onrush of Internet material into pictures and text and lay the whole thing out. And the computer at the other end has to serve up the stuff you want quickly and cleanly. It&#8217;s a balance. Sometimes you don&#8217;t know what&#8217;s slowing things down &#8212; though I do wish Intel would make faster chips.<\/span><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I write this blog &#8220;in the cloud,&#8221; which means I&#8217;m reliant on the Internet and the computer at the other end. That is much more &#8220;iffy&#8221; than writing on my local machine &#8212; because sometimes the cloud jumbles my typing. I don&#8217;t know the solution. I&#8217;ll try higher speed. Maybe I&#8217;ll try a better cloud. This stuff is complicated.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>I get email.<\/strong> <span style=\"color: #000000;\">Because I write a financial blog, every Tom, Dick and Harry, public relations type has put me on their emailing list for every nonsense under the sun. This is my recent favorite headline:<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\"><strong>Another Study Determines Restaurant Ice Machines Contain More Bacteria Than Toilet Water<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">And the story reads:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Uh-oh: The <a title=\"http:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/news\/article-2334533\/Ice-restaurants-bacteria-water-toilets.html\" href=\"http:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/news\/article-2334533\/Ice-restaurants-bacteria-water-toilets.html\"><em title=\"http:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/news\/article-2334533\/Ice-restaurants-bacteria-water-toilets.html\">Daily Mail<\/em><\/a> collected ice from ten fast-food franchises \u2014 McDonald&#8217;s, Burger King, and Starbucks among them \u2014 and determined that in six out of ten locations, those innocuous-seeming cubes contained higher levels of bacteria than the water samples taken from toilet bowls at the same establishments. The <em>Mail<\/em> doesn&#8217;t identify the bacteria by type or warn of a specific food-safety risk, instead noting only that four of the samples contained a sufficient bacterial load to present a &#8220;hygiene risk.&#8221; So, does this mean we should all be drinking out of the toilet?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;ll let you answer that for yourself.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Great customer service.<\/strong><\/span> On March 24, I emailed the Mondaine Group that my swiss clock was busted. Yesterday they emailed me the address of their local service shop. It took Mondaine only 10 weeks to reply to my email! I talked to the service shop this morning. They said Mondaine was slow. They weren&#8217;t sure of what planet the company lived on.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Never, ever buy anything from Mondaine, despite their clocks looking handsome. They make the handsome railroad clock.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-16364\" title=\"HarryNewton\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/HarryNewton.jpg\" width=\"233\" height=\"210\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton who doesn&#8217;t know why Salesforce.com paid $2.5 billion to buy money-losing ExactTarget. Salesforce&#8217;s CEO Benioff has spent at least $4 billion in five years on more than 40 deals. No one can absorb and successfully integrate that many companies that quickly. It just ain&#8217;t possible. Salesforce is probably a sell, though it dropped bigtime after the ExactTarget acquisition was announced.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Summer Swoon is upon us. Investors are wary of many things: + The run-up running out of steam, as big rises are want to do. + Mr. Bernanke cutting back on QE &#8212; i.e. stop printing money. + A rise in interest rates. + Jobs &#8212; they&#8217;re not being created fast enough. + Europe [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20290","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20290"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20290\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}