This morning, I read: Goldman Ratchets Rate Calendar. The investment bank now says the Fed will likely raise rates in Q3 2015 instead of Q1 2016, after stronger jobs data. Goldman joins JP Morgan, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Capital Economics in raising this warning flag.<\/p>\n I like that. A “warning flag” that things are actually getting better?<\/p>\n Meanwhile, IBM is going down the toilet, as its lunch gets eaten by everyone from Oracle to Amazon. So, short IBM.<\/p>\n Not a good idea shorting IBM. A company that big has too many ways for its execs to cook the books, cutting expenses, bringing in revenues earlier, changing accounting, etc. Then there’s the inevitable short squeeze. Oih veh.<\/p>\n Another “complex” to benefit a select few. <\/strong><\/span>Professor Carl Hart has just written a book called “High Price<\/strong>” in which he debunks the myths behind the “war on drugs.” the New York Times interviewed him last Sunday in its magazine. Remember Eisenhower’s warning on The Military-Industrial Complex. Here’s a new “Complex.” One question and one answer:<\/p>\n Q: Do politicians really benefit from portraying drugs as the root of all evil? <\/strong><\/p>\n A: As a politician, you can use \u201ccrack cocaine\u201d as a code word and say you\u2019re going after it, but you\u2019re actually going after people we don\u2019t really like in our society. Law enforcement benefited because their budgets were hugely increased. Treatment providers benefited because it\u2019s either jail or treatment, so they got the overflow. Researchers, people like me, benefited. So many people benefited from this.<\/p>\n You can read the rest of the Q&A here.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n Best birthday presents. <\/strong>Susan’s birthday was July 4<\/span><\/span>.<\/span> I printed three sets of my favorite 33 family photos in three sizes — 4 x 6, 5 x 7 and 8 x 10. I bought a bunch of nice stand-up frames. “Mix and match. Pick what you like.” Fun activity for all.<\/p>\n I need more frames.<\/p>\n New pact: No more investments in private companies: <\/strong><\/span>We checked our recent successes. Haven’t had any. The thought came because I’m finishing the 28th edition of my dictionary. And I was defining…<\/p>\n \u00a0+ Liquidity event<\/strong> The saddest story I heard: The brilliant founder died six months after the money went in. His successor was a moron. He drove the company into bankruptcy. The original investors bought the mess out of bankruptcy. They’re now trying to salvage some nickels — or at least those the lawyers don’t get first.<\/p>\n Useful things we learned:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n + 99.9% of all user names are not case sensitive. But Amtrak’s are. Try to keep your user names the same. Easier.<\/p>\n + Thule makes great stuff. But their bike racks are a disaster. Son-in-law Ted brought nine boxes of Thule for him and I to install a bike rack on his car on Saturday. Four hours later, we found some parts didn’t fit others. The installation “instructions” were miserable — no words, just skimpy diagrams designed for super-intelligent Swedes, but not dumb Americans like us. We finally got the bars on the car only to find that the Thule bike rack we had didn’t fit the bars on the car. I hate Thule. Want to see the world’s worst web site? Try Thule.com.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n + What Amazon associates sell is not cheap. What Amazon sells mostly is. Special Nature’s Recipe dog treats on Amazon were $23. On Chewy.com, they were $2.99.<\/p>\n Profound thoughts from a long weekend:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n + Men have two\u00a0 emotions: Hungry and Horny. If you see him without an erection, make him a\u00a0 sandwich.<\/p>\n + Give a person a fish and you feed them for a day. Teach a person to use the Internet and\u00a0 they won’t bother you for weeks, months, maybe years.<\/p>\n + Health nuts are\u00a0 going to feel very stupid someday, lying in the hospitals, dying of\u00a0 nothing.<\/p>\n + All of us could\u00a0 take a lesson from the weather. It pays no attention to\u00a0 criticism.<\/p>\n + In the 60’s,\u00a0 people took acid to make the world weird. Now the world is weird and\u00a0 people take Prozac to make it normal.<\/p>\n + “Don’t worry\u00a0 about your old age — it doesn’t last that long”.<\/p>\n My favorite recent New Yorker cartoons:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n![\"TBTOverFiveYears\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/TBTOverFiveYears.jpg\")
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\nYou invest your hard-earned money in a startup. You get shares for your money. It’s a private company. There is no market for your shares. There are only two ways to get your money (and maybe profit) out: First, they sell the company and second, the company goes public, with an IPO or a reverse shell merger. These are called liquidity events. Either way, you have no control over the outcome. What the company does is totally up to the company’s CEO, who may, or may not, listen you as a shareholder. Most likely he won’t. In which case you’re screwed. Your shares may languish for years in nowhere land, as your CEO fiddles, while his firm may or may not burn. But most likely, will burn.<\/p>\n<\/a> <\/a><\/strong>
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\nHarry Newton who figures one day he’ll find a handsome picture of himself looking handsome. Nice weekend. Kids visited.<\/p>\n