{"id":28204,"date":"2014-10-13T09:48:10","date_gmt":"2014-10-13T13:48:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=28204"},"modified":"2014-10-13T13:58:53","modified_gmt":"2014-10-13T17:58:53","slug":"is-this-time-different","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=28204","title":{"rendered":"Is this time different?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Start with the assumption: No one knows. No one can predict.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Here&#8217;s UBS. It remains bullish.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/WallofWorry.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-28207\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/WallofWorry.jpg\" alt=\"WallofWorry\" width=\"560\" height=\"430\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/WallofWorry.jpg 560w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/WallofWorry-300x230.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 560px) 100vw, 560px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Says UBS,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/WEremainbullish.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-28208\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/WEremainbullish.jpg\" alt=\"WEremainbullish\" width=\"641\" height=\"567\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/WEremainbullish.jpg 641w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/WEremainbullish-300x265.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 641px) 100vw, 641px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">This is a Harry&#8217;s &#8220;trendline,&#8221; which I just drew. Doesn&#8217;t look so good. Notice the S&amp;P 500 has just busted through my trendline:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/TrendLine.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-28209\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/TrendLine.jpg\" alt=\"TrendLine\" width=\"588\" height=\"334\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/TrendLine.jpg 588w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/TrendLine-300x170.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 588px) 100vw, 588px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The fears are:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Slowing Europe, especially Germany.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Slowing Asia, including Japan and maybe China.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Irrational Russia.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Lower oil prices, and whatever that means for slowing industries that use oil and the industries that make it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Ebola.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ Slowing US business that does business with the above slowers. (New word)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0We&#8217;ve learned three things from this downdraft:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ All stocks go down together. When it&#8217;s a bad day, they&#8217;re all red. Look at CNBC&#8217;s &#8220;heat map.&#8221; A blaze of <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">red boxes. <\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">In short, hard to hide.<strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ It&#8217;s extraordinarily dumb to own mutual funds. You have to wait until the end of the day to sell the stuckers. By then you could thousands out of pocket. My highly-recommended FMILX has been a disaster. (It&#8217;s gone from my list.) I wanted to sell it Friday lunchtime. But I had to until after the close. What an idiocy owning mutual funds when there are a zillion ETFs that do the same thing, charge the same fees and are saleable from one moment to another. So don&#8217;t buy mutual funds.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ All the bad news is delivered on TV by gorgeous women. If I were running a TV network, I&#8217;d keep the gorgeous ones for good news and the hags for bad news. How about these two for last Friday, when it was really scary?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/Exorcist1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-28215\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/Exorcist1.jpg\" alt=\"Exorcist\" width=\"280\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/Exorcist1.jpg 280w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/Exorcist1-240x300.jpg 240w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 280px) 100vw, 280px\" \/><\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/Hag1.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-28216\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/Hag1.jpg\" alt=\"Hag\" width=\"250\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/Hag1.jpg 250w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/Hag1-214x300.jpg 214w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Few stocks are &#8220;cheap,&#8221; yet. Maybe Delta is an exception?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/DeltaCheap.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-28217\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/DeltaCheap.jpg\" alt=\"DeltaCheap\" width=\"584\" height=\"306\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/DeltaCheap.jpg 584w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/DeltaCheap-300x157.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 584px) 100vw, 584px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Fidelity tells me Delta&#8217;s P\/E\u00a0 is 2.6 and yields 1.09%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I&#8217;d like to spend a day at Kennedy Airport and ask everybody getting off a Delta plane how full the plane was? Susan just came back from Portland, Oregon on Delta and she said it was &#8220;awful.&#8221; There wasn&#8217;t a spare seat in the whole plane.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bad for her. Good for us.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I don&#8217;t have the time to spend tagging\u00a0 passengers at JFK. Anyone have flown Delta recently? Anyone had a good, miserable flight?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Bill Gross&#8217;s old Pimco Total Return Bond Fund: <\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">I hate this mutual fund stuff. Got to spend half your life figuring out which class for you. One for class for Christians, one class for Jews, one class for white people living in green houses. This is &#8220;class&#8221; stuff with mutual funds is total insanity. Stick with ETFs. One class for all. And easy to sell or buy.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/PimcoTotalReturnBondfund.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-28219\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/PimcoTotalReturnBondfund.jpg\" alt=\"PimcoTotalReturnBondfund\" width=\"568\" height=\"393\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/PimcoTotalReturnBondfund.jpg 568w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/PimcoTotalReturnBondfund-300x207.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 568px) 100vw, 568px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Last thought of the morning:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">If you&#8217;re running a computer without <em>Norton Internet Security<\/em> &#8212; my favorite virus checker and killer &#8212; you&#8217;re asking the bad guys to give you a nasty, computer-destroying virus. It happened to my daughter. It happened to my real estate friend.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">When you get the virus, the bad guys will want $800 to remove it. Or they&#8217;ll destroy everything on your hard disk, which you forgot to back up.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">One subscription to Norton Internet Security covers three machines. It is worth its weight in gold. Trust me on this one.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21218\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\" alt=\"HarryNewton\" width=\"200\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton who has three dumb friends:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">+ One yanked a heavy kayak and threw out his back.<br \/>\n+ One used his favorite chain saw to cut off his right hand. (And he hadn&#8217;t stolen anything.)<br \/>\n+ A third tried to lift the heavy lawn mower attachment behind his tractor and threw out a disc, which is now bulging painfully into his sciatic nerve.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Some of my friends are stupid. But these three give stupidity a whole new meaning.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Don&#8217;t do stupid! Ask for help.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){\n  (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),\n  m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)\n  })(window,document,'script','\/\/www.google-analytics.com\/analytics.js','ga');\n\n  ga('create', 'UA-45200733-1', 'technologyinvestor.com');\n  ga('send', 'pageview');\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Start with the assumption: No one knows. No one can predict. Here&#8217;s UBS. It remains bullish. Says UBS, This is a Harry&#8217;s &#8220;trendline,&#8221; which I just drew. Doesn&#8217;t look so good. Notice the S&amp;P 500 has just busted through my trendline: The fears are: + Slowing Europe, especially Germany. + Slowing Asia, including Japan and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28204","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28204","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28204"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28204\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28204"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28204"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28204"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}