{"id":29613,"date":"2015-01-22T10:32:53","date_gmt":"2015-01-22T15:32:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=29613"},"modified":"2015-01-22T10:32:53","modified_gmt":"2015-01-22T15:32:53","slug":"buys-bonds-buy-hal-and-slb-short-ibm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/?p=29613","title":{"rendered":"Buys bonds. Buy HAL and SLB. Short IBM."},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">My bond guy really knows his stuff. This morning he emailed:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">ECB QE is intended to lift inflation and depress the Euro, and by way of &#8220;the wealth effect&#8221; to stimulate spending and investment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">QE adds 1 trillion+ to global liquidity.\u00a0 ECB policy, like Fed and BoJ policies, forces capital from short term to long term assets incl stocks, bonds, and RE.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">QE doesn\u2019t start until March.\u00a0 Deflation is here now.\u00a0 Bonds do not anticipate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">The transmission mechanism is slow \u2013 much slower than in the US. \u00a0This will take years. \u00a0ECB will increase and extend the program, just like the Fed and BoJ have done.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Capital flows from Europe, Japan, and EM to US stocks and bonds will continue and increase.\u00a0 US yields and credit quality still &gt;&gt; Europe.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">\u00a0Oil heading much lower.\u00a0 Saudi has no incentive to cut production. Other OPEC members (Iran, et al) starting to increase production.\u00a0 Russia, US also increasing production in the short term.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Other industrial commodities still weak reflecting weak Chinese, European, and EM demand.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">\u00a0Unemployment claims have been rising for two months.\u00a0 Layoffs in energy, mining, financials are accelerating. Home sales and retail sales sluggish.\u00a0 Strong dollar is deflationary and recessionary. Import &amp; Export prices are tanking.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">US core inflation data falling.\u00a0 Watch the PCE core deflator.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">His strong recommendation:\u00a0 <strong>Buy long term bonds (10-30-yr) and US stocks.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">On his recent recommendation I bought 30-year treasuries. I bought them at $105.398. They&#8217;re now worth $111.346<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Catching the falling knives of HAL and SLB is working.<\/strong><\/span> They&#8217;re both edging up. Check out their charts. They&#8217;ve fallen so far, it&#8217;s impossible to see them falling much lower.<\/span><strong><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Bill Ackman is now in the money on his Herbalife (HLF) shorts:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/HarbalifeShorts2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-29618\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/HarbalifeShorts2.jpg\" alt=\"HarbalifeShorts2\" width=\"645\" height=\"340\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/HarbalifeShorts2.jpg 645w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/HarbalifeShorts2-300x158.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I remember listening to his 20-minute presentation at the Robin Hood conference last fall and being impressed with the amount of work he&#8217;d put into researching Herbalife and how much money he put into the short &#8212; over a $1 billion. I didn&#8217;t go short because I was\u00a0 fearful. But the lesson I take away is &#8212; <strong>Research. Research. Research.<\/strong> Add it to <strong>Check. Check. Check.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">To confirm the value of resasrch, the latest issue of Maxim has a cover story, &#8220;<em>The Secret of Mark Cuban&#8217;s success<\/em>.&#8221; And the answer?<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">In general though, Cuban&#8217;s protection against making bad bets is, always, to do more homework than anyone else.\u00a0 &#8221; You can&#8217;t get anything over on him,&#8221; says Brian Dameris. &#8220;His gift is consuming information. He takes it all in, reads a thousand emails a day, runs the Mavs and all these other businesses, and manages to process it all. If he asks you a question and you try to fake an answer, he knows. He&#8217;ll be like: &#8220;I read that yesterday in the <em>Journal <\/em>and the reality is this and this and this.&#8221; Whenever Cuban looks like he&#8217;s improvising &#8212; say when he signed the free agent forward Chandler Parsons in a nightclub this past summer &#8212; you can bet a good amount of preparation went into the moment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">\u00a0<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Personally I think the best short around remains IBM:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/IBMShort.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-29620\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/IBMShort.jpg\" alt=\"IBMShort\" width=\"647\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/IBMShort.jpg 647w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/IBMShort-300x162.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 647px) 100vw, 647px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>The car rental &#8220;clubs&#8221; suck you in.<\/strong><\/span> But Priceline does much better. My story:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">We need to rent car for two weeks in and around Palm Springs, CA.\u00a0 I&#8217;m an Emerald Club member with National. That entitled me to a standard SUV for $475.35. Then I went on Priceline and bid $25, $20, $15 and finally $10 day for the same standard SUV. I finally snagged one from Budget at $338.20. I saved <strong>$137.15<\/strong>, or <strong>29%.<\/strong> That&#8217;s a lot of money for three minutes of fiddling on my laptop.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>The only way to get off spam lists: <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Get yourself a junk email address, e.g. HarryNewtonTemp@gmail.com.Use it to buy things online. Kill the email address once a year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px; text-align: left;\">Reason: It&#8217;s impossible to unsubscribe from the worst offenders &#8212; the companies who send the most spam. Those guys see your &#8220;unsubscribe&#8221; request as confirmation of your email address. &#8220;Heh, we&#8217;ve got a hot one.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>Hansgrohe makes the best shower head &#8212; the Clubmaster.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/HansgroheShowerHead.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-29386\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/HansgroheShowerHead.jpg\" alt=\"HansgroheShowerHead\" width=\"300\" height=\"332\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/HansgroheShowerHead.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/HansgroheShowerHead-271x300.jpg 271w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">They also have the best customer service. Item: I sent them our old (very old) semi-busted one. And bingo, this morning, UPS delivered me a brand-new, free, replacement Clubmaster. Thank you, Hansgrohe. Great service.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">The Australian Tennis Open continues on The Tennis Channel. <\/span><\/strong><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Great matches and great scenery. This morning I googled &#8220;Top Australian Models&#8217; and found this one:<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/TopAustralianModel.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-29625\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/TopAustralianModel.jpg\" alt=\"TopAustralianModel\" width=\"400\" height=\"445\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/TopAustralianModel.jpg 400w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/TopAustralianModel-269x300.jpg 269w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">I have no idea if she plays tennis. But now you know one reason I married an Australian. There&#8217;s something in the water there that makes gorgeous (and intelligent) women, and one decent tennis player, Casey Dellacqua, 27th in the world.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-21218\" src=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg\" alt=\"HarryNewton\" width=\"200\" height=\"199\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton.jpg 200w, https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/HarryNewton-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 200px) 100vw, 200px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\nHarry Newton who recommends the article on Mark Cuban. Sadly, it&#8217;s not online.You have to read the paper version.<\/p>\n<p><script>\/\/ <![CDATA[\n(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){i['GoogleAnalyticsObject']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){\n  (i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),\n  m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)\n  })(window,document,'script','\/\/www.google-analytics.com\/analytics.js','ga');\n\n  ga('create', 'UA-45200733-1', 'technologyinvestor.com');\n  ga('send', 'pageview');\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My bond guy really knows his stuff. This morning he emailed: ECB QE is intended to lift inflation and depress the Euro, and by way of &#8220;the wealth effect&#8221; to stimulate spending and investment. QE adds 1 trillion+ to global liquidity.\u00a0 ECB policy, like Fed and BoJ policies, forces capital from short term to long [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29613","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29613"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29613\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29613"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29613"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29613"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}