The Jobs Report<\/strong> For the last few months, there has been a bit of a mystery in the economic data. The American job market seemed to be roaring, with the nation adding around 300,000 jobs a month. But most every other measure of the economy was softer, suggesting more of the slow growth that has been all too typical the last several years.<\/p>\n Eventually, something was going to have to change. Either job growth would need to slow down to match the economy, or economic growth would need to speed up to keep pace with the terrific jobs numbers.<\/p>\n That adjustment happened in March, according to jobs numbers released Friday. It adjusted, though, not in the direction that Americans hoping for a stronger economy would prefer.<\/p>\n The nation added only 126,000 jobs in March, while the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5 percent. Those terrific numbers from January and February now look a bit less terrific, as revisions subtracted 69,000 positions from the previously reported job gains. In a silver lining to the soft numbers on job gains, average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent, continuing the erratic, muddy picture that is emerging on whether American workers are starting to see meaningful wage gains.<\/p>\n It now appears that soft numbers so far in 2015 on consumer spending, durable goods orders and industrial activity were telling us something meaningful, and while the job market still looks quite solid over all, it probably isn’t going quite as gangbusters as it had seemed.<\/p>\n Some of the weakness is surely due to a brutal winter in much of the country, which should lead to a bounce-back with the spring thaw. But it will take time to see how much of the softness is temporary and how much is reflective of the true, underlying path of the economy.<\/p>\n The truth is, a quarter of the way through 2015, we still don’t have a particularly good handle on whether this is shaping up to be a great year for the economy, on par with the late 1990s, or one of sluggish muddling-through typical of the last five years.<\/p>\n In theory, the benefit to consumers of lower fuel prices should be more than enough to overcome the slowdown in oil exploration resulting from cheaper oil. But the lift you would expect to see in spending hasn’t really arrived. Retail sales fell in both January and February.<\/p>\n The lower unemployment rate should mean that employers looking to add workers must get in bidding wars, driving up wages and creating a virtuous circle of higher worker pay, higher consumer spending and stronger growth. There is plenty off anecdotal evidence that employers are raising pay, including a decision this week by McDonald’s to increase its minimum hourly wage for company-owned restaurants.<\/p>\n But, as mentioned above, the evidence that pay is rising more quickly is murky at best. My colleague Justin Wolfers notes on Twitter that if you look at the last three months of data, average hourly earnings are growing at a strong 4 percent annual rate. If you look at four months of data, though, it is a mere 2.2 percent, about the rate of wage gains for several years running.<\/p>\n And a stronger dollar versus other global currencies is resulting from optimism about American economic growth and expectations the Federal Reserve will soon raise interest rates. But there are feedback loops in which the strong dollar may be putting American exporters in a weaker competitive position, which is undermining the optimism that led markets to bid up the dollar to begin with. Unsurprisingly, the euro soared versus the dollar on news of the weak payroll numbers.<\/p>\n Where it all settles is still unclear. The good news is that if you look at the longer time horizon, the job market still looks quite strong. Job gains have averaged 261,000 a month over the last six months.<\/p>\n But whether 2015 will turn out to be a blockbuster year for the economy is more of an open question than it had seemed at 8:29 a.m. Friday.<\/p>\n Latest great New Yorker cartoons.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n
\nThe New Job Numbers Show Just How Muddy the Economic Outlook Is<\/em> by Neil Irwin<\/p>\n![\"JOBGRowthFell\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/JOBGRowthFell.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n