![\"WeekendEconomist\"](\"https:\/\/www.technologyinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/06\/WeekendEconomist.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\nHere are excerpts from that long piece:<\/p>\n
\u00a0+ ONE of the ways in which America\u2019s economy leads the world has been, of late, an unrivalled capacity for sending mixed messages. The past six months provide a case in point. The year opened with things looking pretty good: strong growth in late 2014 had led the IMF to project that GDP would rise by 3.1% in 2015; the Congressional Budget Office, America\u2019s fiscal watchdog, expected a 3.4% expansion. In March and April, though, bad news built up, and in May official numbers confirmed that tumbling investment and exports meant that over the first quarter GDP had actually been falling at an annualised rate of 0.7%.<\/p>\n
Then the good news came back. In early June data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) showed hourly pay rising at an annualised rate of 3.3% in the first quarter and a 280,000 increase in employment in May, both far better numbers than economists had predicted.<\/p>\n
+ Pessimists cite persistent weakness in consumption and an edging up of the savings rate as signs that this much-needed American growth cannot be relied on. Yet the pessimists, like the optimists, keep having their narrative interrupted by indicators which just don\u2019t fit.<\/p>\n
On the basis of the year to date, the optimists have the better case. Poor performance in the first quarter can be ascribed to two particular shocks, a fall in the price of oil and a rise in the value of the dollar. Both now seem over, and the former, at least, unlikely to recur. With household debt much lower than it was and wages rising, the economy looks likely to be stronger than many expect. The worry for the next six months is less that growth will not return, more that concern about financial bubbles will encourage the Federal Reserve to raise rates before wage rises gain enough momentum. Real prospects for further growth could thus be dashed.<\/p>\n
+ The optimistic view is that, having absorbed the oil and dollar hits, there is now nothing between the economy and its deferred growth spurt. Yet there are niggling worries. February may have been cold, but March and April were less so\u2014and yet consumption dropped in those months, too. And industrial production has fallen for five months in a row; between March and April it fell by an annualised 3%. When numbers like these keep coming it is hard to believe the slowdown is temporary.<\/p>\n
Hence the idea of \u201csecular stagnation\u201d. First set out in the 1930s by Alvin Hansen, it is a way of explaining depressions from which economies fail to recover in terms of a persistent mismatch between the supply of savings and the demand for investment. Reviving the idea in 2013, Larry Summers, a former treasury secretary, suggested that demand for investment had fallen because of technological advances that reduce the amount of capital it takes to start a firm.<\/p>\n
That’s enough. You can read the full article, replete with oodles of lovely charts. Click here. <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n \u00a0Loving my Apple Watch, still.<\/strong> <\/span>The lady New York Times reporter has given up her Apple Watch for reasons I don’t understand — fashion, mostly. Personally, I’m loving my Apple Watch even more. Its my big “alerter.” It alerts me to incoming texts, emails and phone calls. Alerting is really useful when I don’t want to fumble for my iPhone (as in a meeting) or I can’t fumble for it (as on the tennis court). It shows incoming grandchildren pictures — I get several batches a day, since my children are embarrassed as to how far they live from Gramps (that’s me). They substitute endless Apple Photostream pictures (and videos) for distance.<\/p>\n On my Apple Watch, I get stock alerts and transactions.\u00a0 I can see where and when my next meeting is. I can even check a map (on my watch) on how to get to my next meeting. I even get told if it’s going to rain on my way to the meeting.<\/p>\n My Apple Watch is not static. There are ever more useful apps coming out every day. I hear there’s one called “Cuckoo” that will make my Apple Watch sound like a Swiss cuckoo clock every hour.<\/p>\n Which brings me to my favorite cuckoo watch. Apparently, towards the end of the 19th century, the innovative Swss watch industry was hurting. They created — I don’t make this up — a watch that every hour on the hour, Hansel and Gretel would emerge, dance around a little, remove their clothes and make mad passionate love, only to reappear the next hour. They did this 24\/7. A testimony to massive physical endurance. I wish.<\/p>\n The first time I visited Geneva, I scoured the town for just such a watch. With heavy hearts, the Swiss watch retailers all told me that “the Japanese had beaten me to the swatch and had cleaned Switzerland out.”<\/p>\n Moreover, the Swiss were no longer making such watches, since it no longer fit their image as conservative. trusty, serious bankers to the world.<\/p>\n Finally, you, my special readers, have learned something from this blog.<\/p>\n The value of listening<\/strong><\/span> A young student nurse appears and gives him a partial sponge bath.<\/p>\n “Nurse,”‘ he mumbles from behind the mask, “are my testicles black?”<\/p>\n Embarrassed, the young nurse replies, “I don’t know, Sir. I’m only here to wash your upper body and feet.”<\/p>\n He struggles to ask again, “Nurse, please check for me. Are my testicles black?”<\/p>\n Concerned that he might elevate his blood pressure and heart rate from worrying about his testicles, she overcomes her embarrassment and pulls back the covers.<\/p>\n She raises his gown, holds his manhood in one hand and his testicles gently in the other. She looks very closely and says, “There’s nothing wrong with them, Sir. They look fine.”<\/p>\n The man slowly pulls off his oxygen mask, smiles at her, and says very slowly, “Thank you very much”. That was very nice. Now listen very, very closely and read my lips: “Are – my – test – results – back”? + Get into investing early. Make mistakes. They won’t matter at your age.<\/p>\n + When in doubt, stay way out.<\/p>\n + You will meet great salesmen. Beware. Most peddle snake oil.<\/p>\n + Watch how snake oil salesmen peddle. Learn their skills. Selling is the most valuable skill in the world. Sadly, it’s not taught in college.<\/p>\n + If you can’t (or won’t learn) how to sell, at least learn how to write and spell. There is its and it’s, but not its’.<\/p>\n + Just because Daddy made plenty of money doesn’t mean he’s going to give it to you or your sister. You better earn the money yourself.<\/p>\n + There’s nothing wrong with Daddy spending all his money to save the world. Which, you will admit, does need saving.<\/p>\n +\u00a0 After writing, spelling, grammar, presenting and selling, the best skill is to learn the art of flattery. All my above-average readers are bright enough to recognize the value of flattery. Right?<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
\nA male patient is lying in bed in War Memorial Hospital, wearing an oxygen mask over his mouth and nose.<\/p>\n
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\nHarry Newton who notices more and more of his friends are bring their children into their businesses. Here are things to tell your kids:<\/p>\n